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Brandon Murchison evaluates the current dynasty football league trade market for NFL players. First is an in-depth look at the NFC South at which players are risers or fallers in 2020.
The NFC South has been full of fantasy talent for several years now. Some of the better players in the game reside in this division and are popular selections at the top of drafts. Players like Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas are firmly inside the first round in redraft leagues and are cornerstones for dynasty teams. As we head towards the 2020 season, changes abound in this division. Jameis Winston is now the backup to Drew Brees in New Orleans, while Captain America himself, Tom Brady, takes over as the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Carolina Panthers also decided to go in a different direction as Cam Newton was let go and Teddy Bridgewater was signed with a chance to restart his NFL career. These moves could cause massive ripples in the waters of the NFC South, especially with extenuating circumstances in which we are dealing with these days and the ongoing pandemic.
From a dynasty perspective, your heavy hitters (McCaffrey/Thomas) should remain just that as they enter the primes of their careers. The adjustment values of other players in this division will continue to waver for dynasty owners. But what is not expected to change is that this division will once again be looked at as one of the higher scoring, fantasy-friendly in all the NFL.
Let's jump into the NFC South and see just where the dynasty market lies on some of the players. As you prepare for upcoming drafts or potential trades, having that insight leaves you better prepared.
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Atlanta Falcons
One of the teams in the division that did not undergo a complete makeover, the Falcons bring back nearly everyone on an offense that was the most pass-heavy in the league in 2019 (65.4% pass rate). With three QB1 finishes in the last four seasons, Matt Ryan has become one of the most consistent options in fantasy and a quarterback that dynasty owners should rely on for a few more seasons.
The question will be if this team can develop a running game behind the newly acquired Todd Gurley II. The strength of Ryan's fantasy production is his volume, and if the team becomes more balanced, there could be a dip in production.
Treding Up
Calvin Ridley, WR
Ridley has been quite the consistent producer playing opposite of Julio Jones in his first two NFL season. Hovering around as a low-end WR2, he seems to be on the verge of a breakout. Before missing the final three games of last season, Ridley was finding his stride and would have finished inside the top-20 as he nearly matched his 2018 production in fewer games.
If he can maintain health, look for Ridley to make another stride forward in production as reliable WR2 with a high ceiling. There is also currently a lot of buzz surrounding him in the fantasy community, meaning he could fetch a lofty price in a trade for dynasty owners. Savvy owners should float his name out there and see what you could get back.
Hayden Hurst, TE
After the free-agent departure of Austin Hooper, the Falcons went out and made a trade for Hurst. Playing in the shadow in Mark Andrews and on the crowded Ravens tight-end depth chart, Hurst could never separate himself. Now he has a chance to take over the 97 vacated targets from Hooper last season. In the Falcons offense, the tight end is very involved in the passing game, which is leading to more and more hype surrounding Hurst and his 2020 potential.
Hurst continues to move up the positional rankings and is now locked in as a TE1 option in fantasy. The price is starting to soar for Hurst and dynasty owners may have already missed their window in hopes of acquiring him for a lesser price. But as long as Ryan is the team's quarterback, Hurst should be a factor in fantasy scoring.
Trending Down
Todd Gurley, RB
Gurley is an obvious candidate for a player that is trending down. He joins the Falcons on a one-year deal and must prove to stay healthy to find his next contact. The arthritic knee is one problem, but the other is the very pass-happy nature of the Falcons offense. They led the league in pass percentage in 2019 (65.4%), which will mean fewer opportunities on the ground for Gurley. The only bright spot for Gurley will be the abandoned red-zone rushing attempts (22 attempts by Devonta Freeman in 2019) that he could potentially garner.
In this offense, Gurley has the ceiling to get back to his RB1 form. But let's face it, his health will come into play at some point and limit playing time. In dynasty formats, the sell high window has likely passed, leaving owners hoping that he comes out of the gates strong in 2020 to crack the trade window yet again.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers decided to make a change to their organization as well with the signing of Teddy Bridgewater after the departure of long-time quarterback Cam Newton. He takes over an offense that will continue to be centered around all-world talent Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey stands as one of the top players in dynasty formats, but how will his production be affected with Bridgewater under center? Bridgewater is notorious for keeping the ball in the short to intermediate area (only 15 deep ball attempts in 2019). That fact alone should not alter McCaffrey's production totals, leaving him as one of the top running backs in fantasy.
Trending Up
D.J. Moore, WR
Moore has all the makings as a player that Bridgewater will fall in love with in Carolina. His yards per target (8.7) and yards per pass route (2.40) will keep him in the short-yardage area for Bridgewater to target frequently. He saw a major spike in targets in 2019 (82 up to 135) and even if he stays around that number, it puts him among the top-10 in the league.
The kicker for Moore will be the ability to score (just six TDs in two seasons). If he can double the four scores from 2019, he will undoubtedly finish as a WR1 in 2020. For dynasty owners, Moore is an intriguing prospect who could be bought at a lower price currently, but sold at a higher cost later on.
Ian Thomas, TE
With the departure of Greg Olsen, Thomas now gets his chance to shine as the starting tight end for the Panthers. In 2018, while starting for the injured Olsen, he produced rather well (four top-12 TE scoring weeks) on the way to a TE24 finish. Last season, Bridgewater's third most targeted receiver was Jared Cook (21 targets in nine games).
So there is reason to believe that Thomas could find himself as an integral part of the passing attack. Going largely overlooked currently, Thomas is an easy buy as a TE2 that could provide weeks of TE1 scoring. Dynasty owners should be able to acquire Thomas off the wire, if not, the price to get him should be rather low.
Trending Down
Robby Anderson, WR
Anderson was once viewed as a sleeper candidate by fantasy owners. But after two straight years of underperforming with the Jets, Anderson now finds himself competing for targets in a Panthers offense that will not be pass-heavy. Add in the fact that Bridgewater rarely takes shots deep down the field, Anderson may not see much in terms of target share.
He will be the fourth or fifth option in the passing attack, limiting his upside. His value in dynasty formats is losing value by the day and he may become a player that bounces on and off the waiver wire.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are the lone team in the division that is virtually unchanged from their 2019 roster. All the key players are back for 2020, including what could be the final season for Drew Brees as a Saint. The pass-heavy attack (58.9%) favors the skillsets of the players on the roster and led to the record-breaking year for Michael Thomas (149 receptions).
Much of the same will be expected from this team in 2020 as the Saints should once again be one of the more high-powered fantasy scoring teams in the league.
Trending Up
Jameis Winston, QB
You may be asking yourself how Winston is trending up if he is the backup quarterback on this team? Well, truth be told that if Winston can prove to be a good teammate in 2020 and learn from behind Brees, he jumps right back into the QB1 conversation in 2021. After the career year in 2019 (366.45 FP), Winston has proven that he has what it takes to be a premier fantasy QB if provided with talent.
If he stays with the Saints for 2021, the second act of his career should be far better than the first. The weapons around him will be some of the best in the league and he will not have to shoulder the load for the offense. For dynasty owners, Winston is a player that you should be buying this year as he sits. Another needy owner may want to relinquish the backup QB for a lesser price.
Adam Trautman, TE
The third-round pick in the 2020 draft, Trautman is a player that will be largely overlooked this upcoming season. But with Jared Cook set to hit free agency after the 2020 season, Trautman falls into what has typically been a productive fantasy spot. His production over the last two seasons in college improved dramatically (23 TDs over the last two years). He will step in and fill the role of a big-bodied athletic tight end that the Saints tend to employ. Playing in this offense almost guarantees that he will be in the running as a TE1 for years to come. Dynasty owners should act fast to roster Trautman because his price will only go up from here.
Trending Down
Tre'Quan Smith, WR
Smith has been a much-ballyhooed prospect for the last two seasons but has failed to live up to expectations. Posting only one top-24 scoring week in 2019, it seems as though the team has lost some faith in Smith. That could be the reason behind the signing of Emmanuel Sanders.
The dip in production in 2019 could be largely attributed to the reduction in air yards. He fell from 513 in 2018 to just 226 a season ago. With the team possibly looking to diminish Smith's role or move on entirely, he now becomes a player that should be an afterthought in dynasty formats as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The team that made vast changes from 2019, the Buccaneers are now led by Tom Brady. The mindset of the organization is clearly to win now, so fantasy owners should keep that in mind in dynasty formats. The Buccaneers will not be the pass-happy team looking to score 35 PPG now with Brady under center.
Instead, the team will look to play mistake-free football to win the close games. Questions surround this roster from a fantasy perspective. Who will control the backfield between Ronald Jones II and rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn? Will, either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin's numbers take a hit with Brady as the QB? A lot of things to ponder on with this team before they take the field.
Trending Up
Chris Godwin, WR
As if the news couldn't get any better for Godwin, coming off of a stellar 2019 season, the addition of Brady at QB could be another boost for his expected production. Finishing just behind Mike Evans in target share last season (22% to Evans' 24%), that number is expected to change in 2020 more to Godwin's favor. Look for him to become the trusted target for Brady, much like Julian Edelman. If he can maintain his 6.7 YAC per reception (5th in the league), Godwin could reach double-digit scoring in 2020 and be in the conversation for WR1 by season's end.
As for dynasty formats, he is an ascending talent that should have a foothold as one of the game's premier receivers for years to come. It will be hard to move him from a dynasty standpoint and get equal value back in return. So if he is on your roster, build around Godwin.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB
Although the market has cooled a bit on Vaughn, the overall perception of this backfield is that it is ultimately going to be a committee. If that's is the case, it only helps the long-term dynasty appeal for a player like Vaughn. He was highly productive in college (24 TDs over the last two years) behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation.
Bring that production to the pro level under the tutelage of Brady and Bruce Arians and you have a player that could project out to become a steady RB2 producer. Before the 2020 season starts, with the cooling market, now is the time to check on potentially acquiring him at a lesser cost. But if you have yet to have your rookie drafts, he will be a player that will come off the board by the end of Round 1.
Trending Down
O.J. Howard, TE
Howard was riding the hype train as the 2019 season approached, only to turn in an abysmal season and souring the taste for fantasy owners everywhere. His TE28 finish (459 yards and one score) goes down as one of the biggest busts in recent memory and could be a reason why the team decided to bring in previously retired Rob Gronkowski.
The case could be made that running more 12 personnel for the Buccaneers will give Howard more room to work on the field. But at the end of the day, the more likely scenario is that his snap percentage will decrease, leading to fewer opportunities. The argument could be made that a change of scenery is coming for Howard, which could spark his career again. But as things stand now, his value in dynasty formats is getting lower by the day.
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