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Welcome to the new Green Bay Packers. The Sheriff may be back in town, but there is a new deputy.
Aaron Rodgers with the absence of Davante Adams has left fantasy managers wondering what to think of the entire Packers’ fantasy outlook.
Specifically, what does this mean for the 27-year-old back out of UTEP, Aaron Jones?
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A New Focal Point
Right when we thought he was falling off for fantasy football, Aaron Jones might be the only Packer benefitting from the absence of Adams. Last year, in the one game without Adams, Jones had 11 targets to pair with his 15 rush attempts. Unfortunately, that is the only game over the last two years where we have seen Jones without Adams. The Packers are likely to make a splash at the WR position whether in the draft or signing a veteran. When this happens, the fantasy community will undervalue Jones.
This will most likely be an overreaction as whoever they bring in will not demand the target share Adams did, and with Adams, Jones saw 60+ targets in each of the last three years. If you play any form of PPR, I expect Jones to be relied on heavily in the passing game.
The touchdowns are where Jones gets really interesting. Over the last three seasons, Derrick Henry is the only player to score more touchdowns than Aaron Jones. That’s right, Jones has scored 40 touchdowns over his last 45 games played. Interestingly, he is also tied with Alvin Kamara for the second-most receiving touchdowns by a running back over the last three seasons. It’s clear that Jones is an endzone aficionado. Even without Adams, Rodgers is the engine that drives this offense and those passing touchdowns need to go somewhere. It’s not unreasonable to see Jones having 7+ receiving touchdowns next season.
The last piece to the Jones equation is A.J. Dillon. In what has been music to all Dillon dynasty managers, we have seen his role consistently increase over the last two years. This tandem has become one of the best backfield duos in the league. Dillon is a like a refrigerator when he takes the field, at 6'0", 247-lbs. This behemoth of a man is the perfect complement to Jones’ explosive and efficient running style.
Last season, Dillon had more rushing attempts than Jones, racking up 187 attempts to Jones' 171. Although Dillon did play two more games than Jones, this is a clear 50/50 split on the ground. The real question will be who takes the goal-line carries. Last season, despite Dillon having 50% of the carries inside the five-yard line (Aaron Jones had 30%), both backs had four touchdowns inside the five. This mirrors their running styles, and I think we can expect similar results next season.
Trade Value
So what is the the veteran running back’s dynasty value? The last piece to discuss is that Jones can be bought out after this season, but is currently signed through the 2024 season. With Rodgers back in town, I think it increases the chance he sticks around; however, he should provide fantasy value regardless of team.
Personally, I’m very optimistic about Jones and his dynasty value. The vacated targets, high-powered offense, and historical efficiency, all project him to be a high-end RB2 with massive touchdown upside. Truly, would you be surprised if he has another 14+ touchdown season? Probably not. I believe most people value Jones around a mid ‘22 first-round rookie pick. Assuming that I am a contending team that could use a running back, I would easily do a ‘22 first (and potentially more).
I would also not be afraid of moving young WRs like DeVonta Smith or Elijah Moore who are both linked to subpar QBs for the upside of Jones. There are many approaches to acquiring aging assets, and although some may stay away, I can see Jones being the perfect piece to put a team over the top.
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