RADIO
Hey RotoBallers, hope all is well. Before we take a look at some dynasty trade targets, I'd like to start by saying that my thoughts have been and continue to be with Damar Hamlin and his family. After what occurred on Monday night, fantasy football took a backseat in my mind, as I'm sure it did with most of the community, and I struggled to find the motivation to write a trade article this week. Fortunately, things have been trending in a positive direction for Hamlin, and we received some really encouraging updates on Thursday. His health and recovery remain of the utmost importance.
With that being said, I will now highlight some players that I am targeting in dynasty trades and others that I am hoping to trade away as we head into Week 18 and beyond. I'm sure that some of you still have something to play for this week, and although I wish you the best of luck, please note that the suggestions I am about to make do not have this season's championships in mind.
Let's get started with two players I'm looking to acquire given their perceived market value.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
I wrote a piece last week recommending Daniel Jones as a redraft streaming candidate for Week 17, and I must say, it panned out beautifully. Before writing it, though, I didn't realize just how solid Jones had been leading up to his four-touchdown performance last week.
On the season, Jones ranks as the QB10 in fantasy points per game with 18.38. He averages over 44 rushing yards per contest, giving him a relatively safe floor even when he struggles to get it done through the air. Taking a closer look, however, we can see that a large portion of Jones' production this year has come at home. The 25-year-old has racked up 2,282 total yards and 16 total touchdowns in nine games at home as opposed to 1,819 yards and six total touchdowns in seven showings on the road.
If Jones really likes playing in MetLife Stadium, he and his fantasy managers alike should be elated to hear that the Giants are interested in retaining him.
From @NFLGameDay: The #Giants want Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley back for 2023, while the #Commanders are starting QB Carson Wentz today. pic.twitter.com/NeSXLrUZbe
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 1, 2023
This seemed to be far from a guarantee a few months ago, but with New York clinching its first playoff berth since 2016, it makes sense that the team is happy with what they've seen under center. Jones has managed to impress even with one of the league's worst receiving corps around him.
Rookie Wan'Dale Robinson showed some promise early in the year before getting injured, but Jones has gotten the job done with Richie James, Darius Slayton, and Isaiah Hodgins over the past six weeks. If the Giants are looking to bring Jones back in 2023, they will certainly draft, trade for, or sign another offensive weapon for him to target.
In dynasty, Jones is not valued as a franchise quarterback, even though he will likely get paid to be one this offseason. His coach and teammates believe in him, and there's no reason to think he couldn't get even better next season with an improved receiver room. I like the idea of adding him to both contending and rebuilding rosters.
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
Through the first six weeks of the season, Marquise Brown was quietly a top-six fantasy wide receiver in PPR scoring. He suffered an unfortunate foot injury in Week 6 that derailed his breakout campaign, but Hollywood returned in Week 12 to a 30 percent team target share while sharing the field with DeAndre Hopkins.
In his return, Marquise Brown out-targeted DeAndre Hopkins 8 to 6. Hopkins had his second-lowest target share of the season today at 22.2%. He was averaging a target share per game this year of 32.4% heading into Week 12.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 28, 2022
Hopkins made his return from suspension this season while Brown was injured, and, unsurprisingly, proved he hadn't lost a step. Although the trio of Hopkins, Brown, and Kyler Murray only suited up for one full game together in 2022, it is obvious that both of these wideouts could thrive together in Arizona. The worst-case scenario for Brown next year is that he is the WR2 for Murray, who he has displayed chemistry with since college, on a pass-happy offense. But there is also a best-case scenario.
The Cardinals are just 4-12 and currently hold the fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft. Three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt has announced his upcoming retirement and rumors of head coach Kliff Kingsbury being fired at the end of the season are running rampant.
If Arizona embraces a rebuild, they could consider trading the 30-year-old Hopkins in a move that would leave Brown as the de-facto WR1 of the future. Just as a reminder, the team traded the 23rd overall pick in the 2022 Draft for Brown and will almost definitely be rewarding him with a contract extension.
Even if the Cardinals opt to keep Hopkins around, I still have confidence in Hollywood as a top-24 fantasy option. Brown has proven himself as a receiver that can demand an elite target share. In 2021, he earned a whopping 145 targets in 16 games while playing for a run-heavy Ravens offense that also featured Mark Andrews. I view Brown as a valuable asset for both competing and rebuilding squads.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
After a disappointing start to the season, George Kittle exploded in the fantasy playoffs. The Pro Bowl tight end has five receiving touchdowns over his past three games and has proven to be a reliable target for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. His talent as one of the NFL's premier tight ends cannot be questioned. Still, I have concerns about his long-term dynasty value.
Kittle has finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end seven times this season. In four of those outings, the 49ers were without Deebo Samuel. Kittle's worst stretch of the year came between Weeks 10 and 14 when he averaged just 2.8 receptions for 36.2 yards on four targets per game. Both Christian McCaffrey and Samuel started all five contests.
It will be interesting to see how Kittle performs in the playoffs with the team fully healthy, but there are just so many mouths to feed on this offense that I worry about his consistency. In addition to Samuel and McCaffrey, the 49ers have yet another dynamic weapon in Brandon Aiyuk, who is enjoying an exceptional third professional season.
Brandon Aiyuk in 2022:
* 74 catches (career-best)
* 956 rec. yards (career-best)
* 8 touchdowns (career-best)— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 2, 2023
As previously mentioned, Kittle has performed admirably with Brock Purdy, but what should we expect in the 2023 campaign? Purdy is unlikely to retain a starting job as a seventh-round NFL Draft choice. Jimmy Garoppolo is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and of course, former third-overall selection Trey Lance should be healthy. San Francisco could go in several different directions, making it hard to predict just what Kittle's situation will look like.
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention Kittle's injury history. Injuries are not always predictive, but I think it's important to note that the 29-year-old has completed one full season in his career (2018) and has dealt with a plethora of lower-body ailments since.
Stacked teams with a chance to make a run at a title next year may want to keep Kittle as the fantasy tight end position is as shallow as ever. Rosters that are more focused on the future, however, should consider getting a haul for him now while he is producing at a high level.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
It's been a bit of a bumpy ride for Dalvin Cook's fantasy managers this season. Cook is a top-10 running back in PPR formats but has finished seven contests outside of the top 24 as his production has taken a hit in terms of both efficiency and volume.
When looking at Cook's rushing yards over expected and expected points added, it's obvious that he has struggled outside of a few big plays this year.
the difference between Travis Etienne's rushing yards over expected and Nick Chubb in 2nd place is the same as the difference between chubb and 15th(!) placehttps://t.co/guTeZzi5ti pic.twitter.com/iXsin4Zje6
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) January 3, 2023
In 16 games played this season, Cook has run for 1,136 yards on 253 carries. In 2021, Cook finished with 1,159 rushing yards on 249 carries in just 13 games. In addition to his efficiency taking a bit of a dip, his decrease in opportunities per contest worries me.
From 2019-2021, the Vikings ranked in the top half of the league in rushing play percentage. In 2022, Minnesota brought in Kevin O'Connell as head coach and immediately became the second-heaviest passing offense in the NFL. The Vikings have run the ball on just 34.79 percent of their offensive plays this season.
You might be quick to assume that the reasoning behind this change in philosophy is the Vikings' defense allowing almost 26 points per game, but this is nothing new. Minnesota allowed over 25 points per game in both 2020 and 2021, as well. Given that the Vikings are 12-4 with an NFC North division title under O'Connell, we should assume that minimal changes will be made to the offensive mindset of the team in 2023.
Alexander Mattison is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but his presence has not made much of an impact on Cook's workhorse role to this point. I am far more concerned with the idea of Minnesota bringing in another running back than I am excited about the departure of Mattison.
Whether it be through the draft or free agency, I expect there to be another back on this roster next season. I'm not so sure that we can guarantee another year of Cook, who will be 28 years old come Week 1, handling almost 80 percent of the team's halfback touches.
I would try to use Cook's top-10 RB finish as leverage to trade him away from any dynasty team this offseason.
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