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It's hard to believe that only two weeks remain in the 2022 NFL regular season and that it is officially championship week in the majority of fantasy leagues. Best of luck to all of those competing for a title!
For everyone else, you're probably starting to think about what dynasty moves to make this offseason, or maybe even right now if your league still allows trading. Just as I did last week, I researched some dynasty assets that I believe to be undervalued and others that I would look to trade away given their perceived market value. These players could be more or less valuable to your team depending on if you are rebuilding or contending, so I'll be sure to specify what strategy each suggestion best applies to.
Let's kick things off with two players I am looking to acquire in dynasty leagues.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
It goes without saying that trading for Cooper Kupp will not help you win a championship this week. Kupp hasn't seen the field since Week 10 as he is rehabbing an ankle injury that will sideline him for the remainder of the season. If your team is set up nicely to compete next year, though, I believe Kupp is the perfect trade target.
Kupp will be 30-years-old before the beginning of next season, so many fantasy managers could be looking to move off of him for younger pieces and picks. But let's not forget that Kupp was routinely being drafted in the second round of dynasty startups as the third or fourth wide receiver off the board heading into 2022. This was always a steep price to pay for a player in the back half of his career, but through the first nine weeks of the season, he was worth it.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford struggled mightily this year before suffering an injury of his own, but the chemistry between him and Kupp was again on full display following the team's Super Bowl victory. The 2021 Offensive Player of the Year averaged 11.6 targets and 24.8 PPR fantasy points per contest through the first nine weeks, both league-leading marks.
Once Stafford was placed on Injured Reserve with a neck injury, however, many speculated that the dynamic duo would be no more. Fortunately, the 34-year-old Stafford confirmed on his wife's podcast that he will be returning in 2023 for his 15th professional season.
Here it is from Matthew himself on retirement: pic.twitter.com/S3hUsHlArR
— HoldenCantor (@HoldenCantor) December 20, 2022
Los Angeles is unlikely to address all of its needs before next September, but Stafford and Kupp already proved this year that they can get it done for fantasy purposes despite playing in a poor offense. Kupp's high-ankle sprain will be fully healed and should cause no concern next season, so as long as Stafford is under center, he should continue to be a fantasy superstar.
I'd value Kupp as a low-end dynasty WR1 this offseason and would recommend trading for him before practice videos show him looking healthy and remind fantasy managers of his dominance.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Coming into this season, Justin Herbert was a locked-in top-five selection in dynasty Superflex startups. In fact, it wasn't uncommon to see him taken ahead of Patrick Mahomes or even Josh Allen as the first overall pick. After what has been a mostly underwhelming campaign, the 24-year-old signal-caller has seen a slight decrease in value and may have cost some managers a spot in the fantasy championship.
Herbert posted his worst fantasy showing of the year in Week 16 and has not thrown for multiple touchdowns in a contest since Week 12. He has finished more weeks outside of the top-10 quarterbacks than he has inside the top-10. Not all of his poor outings can be explained away, but at least some of them can.
Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have been in and out of the starting lineup all season, with Allen suiting up for and finishing six games while Williams has played 10 in full. It appeared that Herbert was starting to settle into a groove in Weeks 12-14, but it's been tough sledding since from a fantasy perspective. From a real-life standpoint, though, he's still the same guy. Herbert has led the Chargers to back-to-back wins to clinch their first playoff berth since 2018.
Herbert has thrown only 21 touchdown passes this year, a disappointing number when compared to the amount thrown by other quarterbacks considered to be elite. His other statistics keep him firmly in this category, though.
2022 season:
Mahomes — Comp %: 66.9 | Pass Yds: 4,720 | 11 INT | 3 GW Drives
Herbert — Comp %: 68.0 | Pass Yds: 4,254 | 10 INT | 5 GW Drives"Justin Herbert has performed & lived up to the bill. He's made the Chargers a playoff team bc of his elite play." — @GregJennings pic.twitter.com/PLhNP6xZep
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) December 28, 2022
Touchdowns have long been one of the least predictive stats in fantasy and have the greatest variance from year to year. We've seen it from Stafford, Lamar Jackson, and even Mahomes. Trust in the incredible talent that is Herbert and, if possible, get him on your rebuilding or contending roster before he's untouchable again in the near future.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
When Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a foot injury four weeks ago, many believed the 49ers' Super Bowl aspirations could be put to rest. Now, San Francisco is as hot as any team in the league with eight straight wins and four of them led by rookie quarterback Brock Purdy.
Purdy isn't putting up gaudy numbers, but he looks the part and is the fantasy QB10 since Week 13. He was selected with the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, making his success all the more impressive. The issue, from a dynasty fantasy standpoint, is that this success will probably not last beyond this season.
Purdy, a seventh-round draft pick, is highly unlikely to be named the starter next season when Trey Lance is healthy and represents a higher ceiling for the offense. As a reminder, San Francisco traded two future first-round picks as well as a third-rounder to move up to draft Lance. He is going to get another opportunity, especially with the elite rushing upside he provides. And there's little reason to believe he can't execute just as well as Purdy has so far.
Kyle Shanahan has done an exceptional job crafting an offensive system that benefits whoever is under center. Since he took on head coaching duties in 2017, the 49ers have won games with C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens, Lance, Garoppolo, and Purdy starting at quarterback. All five QBs have had stretches of solid fantasy output in this system.
There's certainly a chance Purdy earns a starting gig again at some point, but the 49ers' minimal investment in him makes it far from a guarantee that it will be in red and gold. I think Purdy is someone to trade away regardless of your chances of winning next year and beyond.
It's really weird that some fans think you can't go back to Trey Lance if Brock Purdy makes the NFC Championship game this year.
Do they not realize the #49ers did that exact same thing going into this season?
— Rob “Stats” Guerrera (@StatsOnFire) December 27, 2022
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
I, like many fantasy gamers, had extremely high expectations for Javonte Williams in his second campaign with the Broncos. Just like much of Denver's season, though, things didn't go according to plan.
Williams played in just three full games before tearing his ACL in Week 4. To make matters worse, his injury was even more significant than a normal ACL tear.
#Broncos Javonte Williams - ACL + LCL + PLC. This is a lot like the JK Dobbins injury from last year. Avg return takes 15 months (5 more than ACL alone). Dobbins took ~13
RB Performance drop-offs are severe for year 1 back (avg 20%) but return to baseline in year 2#NFL
1/2
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) October 3, 2022
Before the injury, Williams showed some nice upside as a pass-catcher but didn't live up to the hype he received in the offseason. The blame should not be directed at the 22-year-old, but rather at the coaching staff and quarterback Russell Wilson who have still been unable to get this team on track.
The Broncos did fire head coach Nathaniel Hackett earlier this week, but there are simply too many other factors that could negatively impact Williams heading into 2023. Wilson, who signed a massive extension before the start of the season, is practically guaranteed to remain in Denver next year. Unless a change at head coach magically fixes everything, we should expect more of the same from Wilson and this dreadful offense going forward.
As mentioned in the tweet above, Williams suffered an injury very similar to the one sustained by Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins last year. Dobbins missed the entirety of 2021 and did not return to NFL action until Week 3 of 2022. He suited up for four contests before feeling his knee tighten up, and was again sidelined until Week 14. In short, there's a very real possibility that we don't see Williams at 100 percent health until the tail end of next season.
Williams is young and should hopefully have a long, successful career ahead of him. He displayed tremendous potential as a rookie and could become one of the best running backs in the league eventually. But according to KeepTradeCut, the dynasty community still values Williams as a top-10 fantasy back, and I would much rather sell at that price than buy. He's a fine hold on rebuilding rosters, but I think any team with Williams should strongly consider fielding offers.
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