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Fantasy football dynasty rookie draft season is finally here as another NFL draft has come and gone. There was no shortage of action this past weekend as we saw a record 43 trades take place by the conclusion of the draft. Your dynasty leagues are most likely buzzing with trade activity now as well.
As the dynasty community begins to overreact to certain rookie landing spots and underestimate some players that saw their situation improve, there may not be a more exciting time to send and receive offers. At this point in the offseason, you should be somewhat confident in the direction of your dynasty team and make decisions accordingly.
For this month's batch of trade targets, I will discuss two players I'm looking to acquire, but only one specific player that I'm hoping to trade away. Because we are amid post-NFL draft hype, I decided to include 2023 rookie draft picks as assets to consider selling. Without further ado, let's start with the players worth more than their perceived dynasty value.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
It's not too often that you can trade for a starting quarterback in a Superflex dynasty league without giving up a first-round rookie pick. It's even rare to do so for a quarterback with as much talent surrounding him as Desmond Ridder.
Ridder started just four games as a rookie and totaled 708 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while completing 63.5 percent of his passes. These numbers won't jump off the page at you, but context is important.
Ridder was thrust into the starting role in Week 15 last season in place of an injured and ineffective Marcus Mariota. At this point in the season, Atlanta was 5-8, Kyle Pitts was on Injured Reserve with a knee injury, and Olamide Zaccheaus was operating as the team's WR2.
Admittedly, the Falcons' wide receiver room still leaves a lot to be desired, but Pitts will return healthy for the 2023-2024 campaign. Ridder also had a versatile offensive weapon gifted to him in the form of Atlanta's first-round NFL Draft selection, rookie sensation Bijan Robinson. The choice to draft a running back with the eighth overall pick should be considered a testament to the organization's commitment to Ridder, as should all of its other actions so far this offseason.
We'll see how it works out. But actions suggest #Falcons optimistic on 2022 Round 3 QB Desmond Ridder:
* Reportedly never talked to Lamar Jackson
* No real rumors of them trading up in draft for Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, or Anthony Richardson
* Passed on Will Levis— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) May 1, 2023
Atlanta also chose to spend a second-round selection on offensive guard Matthew Bergeron, a solid addition to what was already considered one of the very best offensive lines in the league.
Before you start to question how a quarterback with Drake London, Pitts, Robinson, and an elite offensive line at his disposal could possibly disappoint from a fantasy perspective, it's important to point out that the Falcons deployed the second-heaviest rushing attack in the NFL last season. Ridder did attempt almost 29 passes per contest, a decent improvement on Mariota's 23. We have to expect head coach Arthur Smith to lean heavily on Robinson and the running game that he's had so much success with over the last four years.
That being said, Ryan Tannehill had his most efficient passing seasons in 2019 and 2020 when Derrick Henry took the league by storm with Smith as the Titans' offensive coordinator. If Robinson is who we think he is, Ridder will be in a perfect position to succeed and should return value on his current dynasty market price.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Dynasty managers of Kenneth Walker III were left stunned when the Seattle Seahawks selected Zach Charbonnet with the 52nd overall pick. Fortunately for every running back that lost value in this year's draft, there is another that should have an improved situation when compared to last season. One player clearly in the latter category is Baltimore's J.K. Dobbins.
Dobbins began the 2022 season injured and was obviously not 100 percent healthy upon his return in Week 3. However, after sitting out Weeks 7 through 13, the 24-year-old looked much more like himself down the stretch. In fact, Dobbins averaged a whopping 6.96 yards per carry over his last four regular-season appearances.
It's hard to believe that Dobbins, who averages close to six yards per carry for his career, has never seen more than 17 carries in a game. The man himself finds it surprising, too.
Just imagine if…. Nevermind… 🙃 https://t.co/ZopTBP7tlb
— Jk dobbins (@Jkdobbins22) April 24, 2023
This tweet reads as a shot directed toward Greg Roman, Baltimore's former offensive coordinator who was recently replaced by Todd Monken. Although the Ravens should pass a bit more often in Monken's system, they are also expected to play much faster, increasing the team's total offensive snaps.
Baltimore was at one point considered a potential landing spot for the aforementioned Bijan Robinson. But instead, the team did not draft a single running back nor sign one in free agency. Barring any surprises, the Ravens will enter the season with Dobbins and Gus Edwards as their primary backs, with a healthy Dobbins expected to command a significant workload.
With Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, and Nelson Agholor now joining Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman as pass-catching weapons for Lamar Jackson, the sky is the limit for this offense. Oh, and Jackson's five-year mega-extension doesn't hurt Dobbins' dynasty outlook, either.
Dobbins is entering a contract year, which does pose some questions for his future. It's possible the Ravens look to re-sign him should he stay healthy and produce in 2023. Even with this uncertainty, the potential for a top-10 fantasy running back season makes him well worth acquiring at cost.
Players to Trade Away for Dynasty Fantasy Football
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
The first three years of D'Andre Swift's NFL career have been a roller coaster, to say the least. Swift was widely regarded as a top-five dynasty running back at the beginning of last season with Detroit and appeared to be a steal at that value through the first two weeks. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse rather quickly.
Swift suffered ankle and shoulder injuries in Week 3 and was subsequently sidelined until Week 8. After returning, he was rarely utilized as a primary ball carrier as Jamaal Williams dominated early down and goal-line work.
It's unclear if Swift fell out of favor with the coaching staff or if the team just didn't have faith in his ability to stay healthy, but Detroit prioritized replacing him with the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. It wasn't long after Jahmyr Gibbs was selected that the Lions traded Swift to the Eagles for a fourth-round pick in 2025 and a seventh-round pick swap this year.
Many fantasy players expressed excitement upon hearing the news, and understandably so. Philadelphia scored the second-most points in the league last season while running the ball over 33 times per game. On paper, the situation is undoubtedly an improvement over splitting time with Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit. Nonetheless, there is an obvious opportunity to capitalize on the hype if some believe Swift can become a three-down back.
Through three seasons, Swift has sustained numerous injuries that have caused him to miss significant time. Despite his solid efficiency, it was apparent that Detroit never felt comfortable giving Swift a substantial workload. Excluding one outlier contest in which he handled 33 carries, Swift surpassed 15 rushing attempts in a game just once.
Swift did, however, shine as a receiving option. The Georgia product earned five targets per game in 2022, ranking him eighth among all running backs. The Eagles would be wise to feature him in this role, which will give him fantasy value, especially in PPR formats. However, expecting him to operate as a first-and-second-down back may be a bit lofty.
Philadelphia replaced Miles Sanders by signing Rashaad Penny to a one-year deal in free agency. Penny has also had his struggles staying healthy but has proven to be one of the better runners in the NFL when on the field.
Rashaad Penny's rank among ball carriers with 100+ attempts in 2022, per PFF
Yards per carry: 1st (6.1)
Yards after contact per attempt: 1st (4.23)
Breakaway rate: 1st (50.9%)
Elusive Rating: 5thEagles O-line ranks:
5th in run blocking grade
6th in adjusted line yards— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) March 14, 2023
The Eagles' backfield doesn't end there, though. Kenneth Gainwell was effective with his touches last year and impressed during the team's playoff run. Boston Scott will also return on a one-year deal and has been given goal-line duties from time to time. And let us not forget that superstar quarterback Jalen Hurts led all signal-callers with 11 carries per game and 13 rushing touchdowns last season.
Swift will have his games, but now as a member of one of the most crowded running back committees in the NFL, it will be difficult to rely on him week in and week out. This is especially given the limited investment Philadelphia made to acquire the 24-year-old. Cash in on the promise of him fulfilling his potential while you still can.
2023 Rookie Picks
Going in a bit of a different direction than usual here. With all the enthusiasm surrounding the NFL Draft, now is the ideal time to sell 2023 draft picks assuming your rookie draft has not yet taken place.
Of course, if you are a well-constructed team and happen to hold the 1.01, you should feel confident selecting Bijan Robinson. If you're in possession of any other top-four selection and could use a quarterback in a Superflex league, it may be best to stick and pick.
There are a handful of other players worth drafting in the first round, but there is a large tier break after pick six, and arguably an even larger gap between picks nine and 10. In a shallow dynasty league, don't feel bad about overpaying to get into the top six selections, especially if you're moving up from pick 10 or later.
There is nowhere near a consensus on who the 10th, 11th, and 12th picks should be after watching Will Levis fall to the second round and Zach Charbonnet land with the Seahawks.
You have pick 1.10 in a Superflex rookie draft, PPR, 0.5 TEP
The top 3 QBs, top 2 RBs, and the 4 1st Round WRs are gone
Who do you have?
— The Dynasty Degen (@FFDynastyDegen) April 29, 2023
Contending teams with these picks should consider avoiding the headache altogether and trading for a veteran. It might sound like a lot to pay for a 29-year-old running back, but if my team could be in the mix to win it all this season, I'd take Derrick Henry over the 1.11 any day of the week. That's just one example, but there are many players with depressed market value due to their age that could be your ticket to a fantasy title.
Managers that aren't so gung-ho about their current roster may contemplate exchanging mid-to-late first-round picks for 2024 picks. This is an excellent idea, particularly if you can snag a 2024 first from a team with some obvious holes.
Buying league-winners with second and third-round rookie picks alone will be nearly impossible, but don't be afraid to make package deals. If adding a mid-second-rounder to a deal convinces a league mate to trade you a star player, you shouldn't hesitate. There will surely be rookies in this range that hit, but the risk of drafting the wrong one is extremely high and should not be ignored.
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