RADIO
With free agency officially beginning in one week, the NFL offseason is in full swing as teams prepare for April's draft.
You may have been neglecting your dynasty team since the end of the regular season. There's nothing wrong with taking a break, but now is an important time for managers to pay attention as player and draft pick values in dynasty fantasy football will change rapidly over the next few weeks.
If you're ready to get a head start on improving your roster before your league's rookie draft, there are moves to be made right now that capitalize on undervalued and overvalued dynasty assets. As always, I will list two players that I am hoping to acquire in trades and two others that I am looking to move. Some of my suggestions will make more sense for contending teams rather than rebuilders, so I will be sure to discuss strategy for both as we dig in.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Perhaps the most perennially underrated fantasy wideout of the past five years, Tyler Lockett easily outproduced his preseason value once again in the 2022-2023 campaign. The eight-year pro finished as the WR13 overall in both half and full PPR scoring and remained a solid fantasy WR2 on a per-game basis.
A few seasons ago, Lockett was thought by many to be a boom-or-bust fantasy option, but he proved to be a consistent weapon for the Seahawks this past year. Lockett scored in six straight games between Weeks 8 and 14 and ultimately led the team with nine receiving touchdowns.
Lockett signed a four-year extension with Seattle in 2021, so barring any surprises, his future looks quite clear. This is especially true now that the Seahawks have locked up their quarterback for the next few years.
Seahawks, QB Geno Smith agree to three-year, $105M deal. (via @TomPelissero and @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/V64NXMrSbU
— NFL (@NFL) March 6, 2023
Geno Smith was excellent in 2022 and displayed obvious chemistry with Lockett throughout his breakout season. While it is certainly possible that the team adds to its thin wide receiver room, this would likely be done through the draft. I would expect DK Metcalf and Lockett to continue operating as targets 1A and 1B in the offense while a rookie would provide some much-needed depth.
Lockett is 30 years old, but his current dynasty value already reflects this. You would need to pay more for other 30-year-old receivers such as DeAndre Hopkins or Mike Evans, both of whom have much more uncertainty ahead. For a contending team in need of a plug-and-play WR2 or flex, I think Lockett is well worth a late second-round rookie draft pick.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
We will now move on to investing in potential rather than a known commodity such as Lockett. Sam Howell didn't have much of an opportunity to display his talents in his rookie season, but for now, still appears to be on track to start for the Commanders next year.
Head coach Ron Rivera recently stated that the 22-year-old will need to earn starting duties, but will enter the offseason program as Washington's QB1. We can expect veteran competition to be brought in, but it would be rather shocking to see the team make a true splash at the position.
The Commanders hold the 16th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, meaning they are unlikely to land any of the top quarterback prospects without a substantial trade. To this point, the organization has not been linked to Aaron Rodgers or Jimmy Garoppolo and is reportedly uninterested in joining the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes.
If Howell does earn the starting job, he has the tools to be a worthwhile fantasy option. The North Carolina product is effective on the ground, as he presented in his lone showing of the 2022-2023 campaign. Howell rushed for 35 yards and a touchdown on five attempts in his Week 18 start. His skill set, while still largely unproven at the professional level, could prove to be criminally undervalued in last year's draft when considering the fact that he was a fifth-round selection.
Interesting comparison:
Will Levis heralded as 1st Rnd QB who has a “cannon” after throwing 59 mph at the combine
Meanwhile, people forget Sam Howell hit the same number at the combine. We’ve also seen him throw for 68%+ and rush for 828/11 in college
Howell was a steal Rnd 5 pic.twitter.com/m9y4w5PGSb
— WhatGibbsFF (@WhatGibbsFF) March 5, 2023
An interesting target for both contending and rebuilding rosters, Howell shouldn't cost you too much right now with his position on the depth chart unconfirmed. In other words, it's the perfect time to sneak him onto your bench for a late second-round rookie pick or as an add-on in a bigger deal.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
I'll get this out of the way early: I believe Jaylen Waddle is a great player and a special talent at the wide receiver position. Sometimes, it just makes sense to trade players at the peak of their dynasty value.
Waddle finished as a WR1 in all formats last season, even while being outproduced by his teammate. Tyreek Hill led the Dolphins in targets, receptions, and yards while scoring one fewer touchdown than Waddle. The 29-year-old Hill showed no signs of slowing down in his first year in Miami and is under contract until 2027, so we shouldn't anticipate Waddle's target share to see a massive bump anytime soon.
Still, Waddle was incredibly efficient with his 116 targets last season, so Hill's presence isn't much of a concern. I am a bit concerned, however, with the future of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa impressed when healthy, but his truly great performances in 2022 came against exploitable defenses. He struggled down the stretch and suffered two concussions throughout the course of his third NFL season.
Miami is yet to pick up Tua's fifth-year option or sign him to a long-term contract, so it's fair to wonder if the organization has similar concerns.
Mike McDaniel on what role Tua’s concussions will play in the decision to exercise his fifth-year option: “You factor everything as best you can.”
McDaniel it’s something the team is still working on. May 1 deadline
— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) February 28, 2023
Of course, Tagovailoa could come back healthy next season and alleviate all worries. I just find Waddle, in particular, to be valued a little too high by the dynasty community when factoring in some of these variables. He is commonly listed amongst the top five dynasty receivers or just slightly outside.
Do not trade away Waddle for pennies on the dollar. If you can get adequate value in a tier-down trade though, I think now is an acceptable time to cash out. You can probably get a draft pick attached to Drake London, DK Metcalf, or DeVonta Smith in exchange for Waddle.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Pollard is another example of a great player that I find to be a bit overvalued in dynasty.
After posting a career season, Dallas eventually placed the franchise tag on the 2022 Pro Bowler. He will return to the Cowboys for his fifth professional season, but coming off serious leg and ankle injuries, it's fair to question how effective he will be.
There hasn't been any news suggesting that Pollard won't be ready by Week 1, but it's possible that he starts slow or even cedes more work to Ezekiel Elliott. I am operating under the assumption that Elliott will play in Dallas next season despite rumors that he could be a cap casualty.
Jerry Jones still very much wants Ezekiel Elliott to remain a Dallas Cowboy. He believes they can make it work financially to keep Tony Pollard and Elliott
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) March 4, 2023
Make no mistake about it, if Elliott is on the roster, he will be involved, even though Pollard is clearly the better runner at this point in their respective careers. It should be noted, however, that Pollard will be 26 years old at the start of the season, so he is not as far away from a possible decline as some may think.
The twilight years at the running back position generally start around age 27 or 28. There are some exceptions to this rule, and because Pollard hasn't been utilized as a workhorse throughout his career, he could prolong his stay amongst the league's top backs if he remains healthy. His future beyond 2023 is quite murky, though, as he may opt to leave the Cowboys in unrestricted free agency in 2024. Whether or not he'll ever be given total control of a backfield remains to be seen.
Despite these obvious concerns, Pollard is still often viewed as a clear-cut RB1 in dynasty. I don't think this valuation is egregious, but it's worth capitalizing on now as holding Pollard into the season could be risky. For a contending team, I like the idea of flipping Pollard for another veteran running back plus some draft capital. Those looking to build through the draft alone should be able to get a mid-to-late 2023 first or 2024 first.
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