RADIO
The NFL Draft is just over three weeks away, which means that we are rapidly approaching dynasty rookie draft season. Rookie picks will fluctuate in value significantly over the next month or so, but there will always be managers eager to trade around this time of the year.
Even if you're not completely ready to label your squad a contender for this upcoming season, you should be able to project whether or not you have a chance to compete or if it may be time to rebuild. The earlier you decide, the sooner you can start making moves and sending offers accordingly.
As always, I'll be discussing two players I'm targeting in trades and two others I'm looking to trade away, keeping in mind their perceived value as dynasty assets. Depending on your strategy, these players could be more or less valuable to your team, so I'll be sure to mention if any of my suggestions apply to a specific type of roster.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Entering last season, Najee Harris was routinely selected as a top-three running back in dynasty startup drafts. His value plummeted when his second professional season got off to a rather disappointing start. After the Steelers' bye in Week 9, however, Harris looked like a completely different player.
It was a tale of two seasons for Najee Harris
Weeks 1-8: RB24
Week 9: Bye
Week 10 on: RB5Among RBs
- 6th in red zone touches
- 5th most carries
- 4th in evaded tackles#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/RNynR1lAxs— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) February 1, 2023
This wasn't just a coincidence. Harris suffered a Lisfranc sprain in his foot during training camp that kept him sidelined for most of the preseason, and simply put, did not appear to be 100 percent healthy for the first nine weeks of the regular season. The quarterback carousel of Mitchell Trubisky and a rookie Kenny Pickett certainly didn't help Pittsburgh's offense, and subsequently Harris' production, either.
Things began to look up for the Steelers starting in Week 10. Pickett proved he could command an offense, leading four game-winning drives in his last eight games. Harris, as previously mentioned, got back on track and scored seven touchdowns while averaging over 88 scrimmage yards per contest in this span.
The Steelers' offensive line wasn't horrible in 2022, but the team is clearly hoping to improve it heading into next season. Guards Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig highlight Pittsburgh's free agency additions while head coach Mike Tomlin has been meeting with some of the top tackles in the upcoming NFL Draft.
We've seen for years that Pittsburgh loves to utilize a workhorse running back, and that should remain the case for Harris, a former first-round pick. Even with Jaylen Warren becoming slightly more involved over the back half of last season, Harris averaged a solid 18.4 touches per game.
Truthfully, the 25-year-old Harris was never worth his second-round superflex startup draft price last summer. Now that he is generally viewed closer to RB15 than he is to RB3, he should be considered undervalued and has an excellent opportunity to prove why in 2023.
Darren Waller, New York Giants
There are no valid questions surrounding Darren Waller's ability. Since exploding onto the scene in 2019, Waller has demonstrated time and time again that he is one of the few difference-making tight ends in the league when healthy. Availability will be the biggest key to Waller's success in New York, as the 30-year-old has only appeared in 20 total regular season games since the start of the 2021 campaign.
If Waller can stay on the field, there is much to be excited about regarding his new situation. The Giants' wide receiver room is mostly unproven but features some veterans that also have major injury concerns. The organization gave up a third-round draft pick to acquire Waller after signing quarterback Daniel Jones to a massive new deal and should be expected to deploy him as a focal point in the team's passing attack.
Of course, the Giants could look to add a wideout in the upcoming draft, but some of the top receiver prospects may be off the board by pick 25. Assuming New York doesn't make any unexpected trades, Waller could easily establish himself as Jones' go-to guy early on.
Darren Waller
The last time he was surrounded by a bunch of beta WRs (2020)...HE DOMINATED
TE2 in Fantasy points per game
1st in Targets
1st in Target share
2nd in Target / Route Run RateThat type of upside remains.
If his health complies...he should crush this year. pic.twitter.com/gmiLzA4Zda
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 4, 2023
There is undoubtedly risk associated with rostering Waller, but the potential reward outweighs it, especially given the fact that it shouldn't take much more than an early second-round rookie pick to acquire him. Contending teams should strongly consider inquiring about the former Pro Bowler.
Players to Trade Away for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
The resurgence of Christian McCaffrey in 2022 was awesome to see, and it's incredibly exciting to see him on an explosive offense in San Francisco. CMC should be set up for success yet again this season, but it may be the perfect time to trade him away on all but the strongest of contending teams.
Since his breakout season in 2018, we have seen McCaffrey produce as an elite fantasy weapon nearly every time he steps on the field. Injuries plagued him in 2020 and 2021, but he managed to appear in 17 regular season bouts last year between his time with the Panthers and 49ers. Although he didn't miss any game action, McCaffrey was banged up in the playoffs with a calf injury.
From @GMFB: #49ers RB Christian McCaffrey should be "all good" with his calf issue, #Cowboys RB Tony Pollard suffered a fractured leg and high-ankle sprain, and #Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a high-ankle sprain. pic.twitter.com/PgkLZ9swwt
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 23, 2023
I'm not going to specifically label McCaffrey as "injury prone," but honestly, all running backs that touch the ball over 300 times per season are liable to get hurt at some point. Injuries aside, managers should look to trade McCaffrey now because he is a depreciating asset that currently holds a ton of value in dynasty leagues.
CMC is on his second contract in the NFL and will be 27 years old by Week 1. Even if he stays completely healthy throughout the season and single-handedly wins fantasy titles, he will not be worth as much on the open market next year as he is right now. He is widely considered a top-five dynasty back and is often drafted in the second round of superflex startups.
Rebuilding teams should not hesitate to trade running backs worth as much as McCaffrey at his age. For contenders, it's understandable to be hesitant. You could certainly ride it out with McCaffrey in your starting lineup and hope to be led to the promised land, but it will be much more difficult to move on from him next summer when he is about to turn 28. If he happens to suffer any injuries this season, trading him could become nearly impossible.
I like the idea of dealing him for a package including a younger running back and some draft capital.
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
By most accounts, Chicago has had a masterful offseason thus far. In addition to acquiring a haul of draft picks for the first overall selection, the team also added DJ Moore as the primary target they desperately needed to pair with young quarterback Justin Fields.
Fields and Moore could very well be electrifying as a duo. After all, there is a blueprint the Bears are following here. In year three Josh Allen was given Stefon Diggs and instantly became one of the most effective passers in the league. The Eagles gifted year three Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown and saw their signal-caller take a massive step forward en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
I have little doubt that the addition of Moore will do wonders for the Bears' offense. Unfortunately, this doesn't necessarily mean it will translate to fantasy glory, at least not for Moore.
Let's take a closer look at the other situations that may have seemed similar to Chicago's on the surface. In 2019, Allen and the Bills attempted 28.8 passes per game before increasing to 35.8 with Diggs on the roster. In 2021, Hurts averaged just 28.8 pass attempts per contest, a number that rose to 30.7 this past year.
In 2022, Chicago attempted only 21.2 passes per game. Surely, we can expect a change in offensive philosophy with a true WR1 now on the team, but there would need to be a 26-percent increase in pass attempts for Fields to even throw 30 per game. For reference, Buffalo increased its passing volume by about 20 percent and Philadelphia threw the ball about 7 percent more in these oft-compared situations.
Moore has been punished with inefficient quarterback play for his entire career to this point, so the hype is understandable. There is still plenty of untapped upside with Fields and maybe Moore does help him reach his fullest potential. The concern is just that Chicago will need to overhaul its offense entirely for Moore to perform much better than he has for the past few seasons.
D.J. Moore's 27.7% target share ranked 11th among regular WRs in 2022 and netted him 6.9 targets per game. But if he had seen that same share of Justin Fields' 21.2 pass attempts per start, Moore would have averaged just 5.9 targets per game.pic.twitter.com/0bJg2icaj8
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) March 28, 2023
With the excitement surrounding the new-look Bears, you should be able to capitalize on Moore's perceived value. Sending an offer to the Fields manager in your league should ensure you get the most in return for the 25-year-old wideout.
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