RADIO
It's hard to believe that we are already entering the back half of the 2024 NFL season. NFL teams reevaluated their rosters after the trade deadline, and as the calendar flipped, we as dynasty managers must do the same.
Each month, our team of RotoBaller experts, which includes Brandon Murchison (@RotoSuperstar), Jorden Hill (@JordenHill95), Matt Terrelle (@SuperMT), and myself (@MattDonnellyFF), update our dynasty rankings as the market changes.
Looking at our monthly consensus, we can identify fantasy football's biggest risers and those fantasy assets trending downward to allow you to stay ahead of the competition. With this insight and the dynasty trade chart, you can buy low and sell high as the market adjusts.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings (November 2024)
Trending Upward
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (+68)
Previous rank: 82
Current rank: 14
It is safe to say there is a new alpha receiver down in Duval County. Even before Christian Kirk was lost for the season with a broken collarbone, Brian Thomas Jr. had already supplanted Kirk as the top option in this Jaguars passing attack and, dare I say, became matchup-proof.
Heading into Week 10, the rookie wideout sits eighth among receivers with 595 receiving yards. Looking beyond the yardage, the first-year product from LSU has earned himself an 18.4% target share, accounting for 29.3% of the team receiving yards market share.
On 52 targets this season, Thomas is averaging an average depth of target of 12.6 yards while seeing his targets per route run sit around that 0.22 range.
What a ROUTE by Brian Thomas Jr. no way this guy is a rookie. #Jaguars #Jags #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/2ovaUg2cjj
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) October 27, 2024
The play is far from over once the ball is in his hands. Thomas created 244 yards this season after the catch, which works out to 6.40 yards after the catch per reception, helping to push his seasonal average for yards per reception to 17.
For fantasy, when you crunch the numbers and add in the five touchdown receptions, you end up with 0.55 fantasy points per route run. That equates to more than Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, and Malik Nabers.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants (+85)
Previous rank: 169
Current rank: 84
Anyone who watched Tyrone Tracy Jr. heading into the 2024 draft knew there was something special about him. Tracy's 22.97% of carries that went 10-plus yards were the most of any back entering the 2024 draft, and he managed to average an unfathomable 4.00 yards after contact throughout his college career.
Landing in New York was also the perfect spot for a path to production, one that some other backs drafted ahead of him were not afforded. To Tracy's credit, he has made the most of every opportunity presented.
As we enter Week 10, those weighted opportunities advance from 56% three weeks ago to 79% in Week 9. In the past two weeks, Tracy has handled 100% of the red-zone opportunities and has cashed in, turning those opportunities into 12.3 fantasy points per contest.
In five games as the starting back, Tracy has run for 413 yards and a pair of touchdowns, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. In those games, he has averaged 82.6 rushing yards, and we have yet to see him truly be unleashed in the passing game, where he may be even better. Tracy is projecting to be a workhorse back, a rare breed these days. He outsnapped Devin Singletary 47 to 18 in the Giants' last contest.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. over last three games with Devin Singletary back in the lineup.
12.3 fantasy points per game
65% snaps
57% attempts
51% routes
8% target shareThat is a very strong role. Locked into RB2 status.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 4, 2024
Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (+120)
Previous rank: 243
Current rank: 123
Since Amari Cooper was dealt, we have seen the ascension of Cedric Tillman in fantasy. Tillman is essentially the perfect "YOLO" receiver for Jameis Winston.
From Weeks 7-9, no receiver has more PPR fantasy points than Tillman's 66.5, as he has averaged a league-best 22.2 fantasy points per game. Tillman also leads the NFL in targets (32) and is second in both air yards (403) and receiving touchdowns (three) over that period.
How did #VFL Cedric Tillman catch this? That’s three touchdowns in the last two games for him. #Vols pic.twitter.com/uF9P4khPKB
— Reece Van Haaften (@Reece_VH) November 3, 2024
If you are in the RotoBaller Discord channel, you know we were ahead of the pack for fantasy purposes when it came to Tillman. As soon as Deshaun Watson was lost for the season, we knew the Tennessee product would quickly be unlocked.
With Winston under center, Tillman has averaged 9.5 targets per contest. It's not just the economy that has seen inflation; as long as Winston runs this Browns offense, look for the Browns receiver to continue to see plenty of volume and inflated numbers.
While Tillman's production seems to have come out of nowhere, perhaps it really shouldn't have surprised us as he was drafted 74th overall after accumulating 417 receiving yards on just 37 receptions during his final season at Tennessee. Tillman was drafted ahead of De'Von Achane, Josh Downs, and Tyjae Spears, who had all flashed before Tillman's breakout. Those who have been patient are now being rewarded.
Trending Downward
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (-67)
Previous rank: 52
Current rank: 119
I am surprised that Anthony Richardson has only dropped 67 spots in this month's Dynasty Market Report. Being replaced by Joe Flacco is essentially the kiss of death.
I will say this: Richardson is still a talented quarterback. However, he is far from developed. The NFL does a bad job of developing quarterback talent, and we are seeing a lot more underclassmen struggle with the transition to the professional level.
Fantasy managers with an eye on the future cannot drop the Colts signal-caller. You are unlikely to get any kind of return on your investment via trade, so we have to hold and wait for that Sam Darnold-type fantasy resurrection.
Richardson is still essentially in his rookie season. In 2023, the former Gator played in just four contests. In 2024, he played in just six games before being benched a second time. Richardson received just 10 career starts before being benched in favor of Flacco. Daniel Jones has 71 career starts to his name.
Richardson is an excellent buy-low candidate if you want to take a negligible risk. Watching him on the sidelines last week cheering on his teammates may not show up in the box score, but it is essential for his development. It shows he's handling everything that has been dealt to him as a professional.
That maturity certainly will serve him well as he refines his game in practice and avoids any unnecessary setbacks along the way.
Of Anthony Richardson's 22 incompletions yesterday, I counted 7 bad throws
Hit the receiver in the hands on 8 of those 22
Hit as he was throwing on 6
With a couple of "wtf was that route" thrown in thereNot sold on him being the future, but it's too early to say he's a bust. pic.twitter.com/Atu1dCaamq
— Eli (@degenEli) October 28, 2024
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers (-78)
Previous rank: 48
Current rank: 126
This one hurts. I was all in on Christian Watson. I went back on X to find all the nice things people had said about him before the 2024 season, and they were either deleted or I completely imagined them.
Against the Lions in Week 9, we were treated to another one of those empty promises-type performances. The good was 145 air yards, and the bad was 37 receiving yards. This season, Watson has an average depth of target of 15.9 yards and an average of 14.56 yards per reception. However, he only sees a target share of 10.7%.
The lack of targets can directly correlate to time missed due to injury because, as my mama always said, your best ability is often your availability, and Watson hasn't been available.
Now, I am still holding out hope, and I have to. I have planted the flag on Watson this season. I refuse to believe that Watson is nothing more than a middle-class version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (-50)
Previous rank: 28
Current rank: 78
Regarding availability, here's another fantasy asset whose value has been hit hard due to injury. That, and his replacement has performed better during his absence.
Travis Etienne Jr. is sitting around that RB40 territory and hasn't had more than 10 fantasy points in a game since Week 5. Look, fantasy football is a "what have you done for me lately" type of business; if you aren't producing, you have little value, fair or not.
In dynasty, we try to look beyond that, but it becomes increasingly more difficult, especially at the running back position, considering the already shortened shelf life of the career.
Etienne returned in Week 9 to a 31% snap share, and the Jaguars eased the back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher back. With a clean bill of health, perhaps we start seeing Etienne regain some of that lost value he had suffered in recent weeks.
Dynasty Trade Value Chart
Names to Know
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers (+121)
Previous rank: 330
Current rank: 209
Jalen Coker is a personal favorite of mine. In my rookie sleepers to target article before the kickoff of the 2024 season, I highlighted Coker and what makes him unique.
Coker's skill set complements Xavier Legette's. While Coker won't separate with speed, he does so with his physicality and route running, and with a 42.5" vertical, he's always open. Steve Smith once called Coker a "hell of a route runner."
Since Week 5, Coker is averaging 8.4 PPR fantasy points per game. In those five contests, he has surpassed double-digit fantasy production in two games, including a 17.8-point performance in Week 8 against the Denver Broncos, where he caught four of six targets for 78 yards and a score.
With Jonathan Mingo now in Dallas, look for Coker's role to expand even more. With Adam Thielen as a mentor in Carolina, Coker has every opportunity to make the most of his tenure with the Panthers.
Maximize Return
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (+37)
Previous rank: 97
Current rank: 59
Only Lamar Jackson is averaging more fantasy points per game this season than Derrick Henry and his 22.4. That's it. This may be peak sell time for Henry managers, assuming you are no longer in contention in your league.
When I say contention, you are one of the current favorites for the title. If I am fourth or fifth, I'm looking to reload my fantasy roster, and the King could get you a ransom in return.
The bottom line is that Henry is a 30-year-old running back. While we have waited for seemingly two or three seasons for the bottom to fall out, Henry continues to defy the laws of logic. In nine games this season, Henry has rushed for 1,052 yards and eight touchdowns. Henry has also added a pair of receiving touchdowns to that total.
It's Derrick Henry's world pic.twitter.com/kFNkKvzzZA
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 3, 2024
This is Henry's ninth season in the league. He should be hitting those significant decline years right about now, right? In 2016, as a rookie, Henry averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Then he went on to average 4.2 (2017), 4.9 (2018), and 5.1 (2019).
We thought he peaked in 2020 at 5.4 yards per carry. The decline seemed evitable as he averaged 4.3, 4.4, and 4.2 yards per carry from 2021-2023. Yet, here we are in 2024, and Henry is averaging a career-high 6.4 yards per attempt.
Going back to high school -- yes, we are doing that here -- Henry has carried the ball 4,174 times. Eventually, that is going to catch up. It hasn't yet, but sometimes it's better to get out a year early than a year too late.
Buy the Dip
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (-32)
Previous rank: 19
Current rank: 51
Out of sight, out of mind. Our consensus is that Brandon Aiyuk is ranked at 51, but I am a little higher than my peers, slotting the 26-year-old receiver in at 31 in my rankings.
I am old enough to remember a receiver whose average depth of target in a down year was 12.5 yards, whose target share was 19.5%, and whose air yards share was 26%. Aiyuk also averaged 14.96 yards per reception, earning a 21.3% first-read target share. Metrics that show that the Pro Bowl receiver is far from declining.
This is still the same receiver who averaged 17.9 yards per reception back in 2023. His offseason holdout didn't do him any favors, as he never seemed to be able to regain his previous form. It's almost like training camp is essential.
Aiyuk's value is likely to dip a little more in the coming weeks, but now is an excellent time to have a chance on the 49ers receiver, and the cost shouldn't be much more than a second. Remember, as fantasy managers load up for their playoff pushes, draft picks have less value, so now is the perfect time to make the most of your draft capital before it starts to degrade.
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