Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - July 2024 Market Report

A wise man once said, "If you want to play the game, you better learn to play it right." Nothing could be more valid than reading the fantasy football market, especially in dynasty leagues.

Our team of RotoBaller Dynasty rankers, which includes Jorden Hill, Matt Terrelle, and myself, update our dynasty rankings monthly as the market changes. Looking at our monthly consensus, we can identify fantasy football's biggest risers and those fantasy assets trending downward to let you know when it is time to hold them or when it’s time to fold them. On top of all that, I'll tell you which players it's time to capitalize on their value and which ones to buy the dip on who is ready to start gaining value before your league mates catch on. 

Last month, I introduced you to my Dynasty Trade Chart; we will be bringing that back out to see what the actual return could look like when you sell high on your assets and what you can expect the current cost to be to acquire players below market. Below are the RotoBaller NFL team's dynasty rankings as of July 2024.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings (July 2024)

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Biggest Risers

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+21)
Previous rank: 86
Current rank: 65

Throughout the offseason, we have seen the market on Justin Herbert's value cool significantly, and rightfully so. We know new head coach Jim Harbaugh likes to run the ball, and we know the new offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, likes to run the ball. We also know that Herbert lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, only to see them replaced by Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and DJ Chark Jr.

The market is starting to correct itself. As fantasy managers, we tend to have knee-jerk reactions to roster moves. The facts are that Herbert has completed 57% of his passes to Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett, Allen, and Williams. 

While that seems impossible, Herbert balled out without Williams and Allen, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, completing 68% of his passes, and recording a 13-2 TD-interception ratio. With additional protection along the offensive line in Joe Alt, it’s reasonable to look at Ladd McConkey as the new Keenan Allen in the offense. At Georgia, McConkey lined up 79% of the time out on the perimeter while averaging 3.26 yards per route run. Only Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Troy Franklin averaged more from this year's draft class. With 62% of the Chargers available from last season, as Herbert’s value rises, so will Ladd McConkey’s.

Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants (+29)
Previous rank: 159
Current rank: 130

For the most part, running backs tend to see their value dip in the dynasty market. Singletary, who turns 27 in December, doesn't have the traditional wear and tear on his body that most 27-year-old backs endure. He's never been allowed to lead a backfield from start to finish. 

He only carried the ball 190 times in Buffalo in a single season. When he arrived in Houston, Singletary finally broke the 200-carry milestone and did so supplanting Dameon Pierce as the lead back. In five seasons, Singletary has averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and last season, he finished with 898 rushing yards and 30 receptions for 193 yards.

In half-point PPR leagues, when Singletary received at least 75% of the snaps (five games), he would average 18.12 fantasy points per game. New York is likely to struggle offensively, having one of the weaker offensive lines on paper heading into 2024, so I expect the Giants to use Singletary in the passing game as an extension of the run game. With Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Eric Gray as the other backs, Singletary could see some excellent volume moving forward.

Today's stat #2 @Rotowire Devin Singletary has
1,000+ scrimmage yards and 215+ touches L3 years
with a 56th% broken tackle, 44th% yards after contact- he's an ordinary RB. If he holds off E Gray/T Tracy, we could see another high-volume top-24 RB season from Singletary. pic.twitter.com/Mm5jmwhH9A

— Jim Coventry (@JimCoventryNFL) July 3, 2024

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints (+25)
Previous rank: 189
Current rank: 163

Let's call this the #SFB14 bump. For those who don't know, the Scott Fish Bowl this season rewards special-teams players heavily in fantasy, and the market is currently reflecting that.

However, Rashid Shaheed has been rising up our rankings for other reasons. New Orleans finally let Michael Thomas go and never brought anyone back into a wide receiver room that includes the likes of Chris Olave, A.T. Perry, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, and Shaheed. In 2023, Shaheed's yards per route run dropped from 2.50 to 1.67, but his average depth of target went from 11.6 to 14.6, showing that if Derek Carr has time, Shaheed is a big play ready to happen at any time.

Maybe the most significant point of optimism hasn't even been touched on yet in the market, and that's the Klint Kubiak factor. If Kubiak continues to run a scheme featuring his wide receivers going in pre-snap motions and crossing patterns, Shaheed could transform into a YAC man like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. had accomplished back in San Francisco.

Other risers: Jaleel McLaughlin (+71), Michael Penix Jr. (+30), Noah Fant (+53), Michael Wilson (+34), Caleb Williams (+25)

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Biggest Fallers

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions (-44)
Previous rank: 95
Current rank: 139

Looking for a polarizing player? Look no further than the Lions' Jameson Williams. Williams has plenty of speed and a pedigree of being a big-time receiver back in college when he was tearing it up in the SEC for Alabama.

One thing we know is Williams is going to move into a full-time starter role. Head coach Dan Campbell has said as much, but with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and even David Montgomery in this offense, Williams is relegated to being the fifth option. I don't see how, without injuries, Williams can top 60 receptions or 800 yards, even in one of the league's most prolific offenses.

Williams will be asked to stretch defenses with that speed, but it is worth noting that half of his total receiving yards came on four plays and Jared Goff threw deep only 7.3% of the time.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (-44)
Previous rank: 95
Current rank: 139

Look at the notable risers above. You'll see that Jaleel McLaughlin is making some noise after averaging 5.4 yards per carry last season on 76 runs while adding 31 receptions to his offensive total. Anyone who watched the Broncos last season (sorry) could see that McLaughlin was the more explosive of the two.

Now, why did McLaughlin look more explosive? People forget just how significant the damage was to Williams' knee, and last season was a redshirt one for a back who, from 2022 to 2023, saw a 48% missed tackle forced per attempt rate along with a 22% yards created per attempt.

The bottom line is that this backfield is more than just McLaughlin and Williams. Samaje Perine was fourth among backs last season, averaging 9.1 yards per reception, while recently drafted Audric Estime was receiving high praise from Sean Payton, who coincides the backs a first-and-second-down back who can finish.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (-26)
Previous rank: 80
Current rank: 106

Like Javonte Williams, Nick Chubb is also coming off a significant knee injury, thus driving his dynasty value to an all-time low. Not many will question how good Chubb is, no one. Recent reports suggest that Chubb is ahead of schedule and progressing toward a return to the field. I don't want to be the guy to bet against him because Chubb has returned and played at a high level previously after suffering the same injury back in college, but I do have concerns about doing it twice.

When healthy, Chubb is guaranteed three yards every time he touches the ball. Before his injury, 73.3% of his touches resulted in at least three yards. Let's also not pretend that Jerome Ford is a nobody. In Chubb's absence, Ford would finish with 813 rushing yards while adding 319 more in the passing game on 44 receptions, with 11.3% of his touches going for 10 or more yards.

With so much uncertainty surrounding Chubb's rehabilitation and the fact that he's really in unprecedented territory regarding this kind of recovery, it's easy to see why fantasy managers are taking a step back this offseason.

The Browns say Nick Chubb is progressing "nicely" from his gruesome knee injury. But @profootballdoc shares why he thinks Chubb's days as a lead back are over.

➡️ https://t.co/djtPvNXJxM pic.twitter.com/SviDLyfVtF

— Sports Injury Central (@SICscore) May 9, 2024

Notable dips: Gus Edwards (-49), Tony Pollard (-30), Stefon Diggs (-12), Josh Jacobs (-25), Keenan Allen (-15)

Maximize Return

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 18
RB: 6

I am looking to capitalize on value, and no player has seen his value spike since the start of the 2023 season like Kyren Williams.

Perhaps I'm a hater and can't have nice things, but I keep waiting for Williams' value to come crashing down. I look at the selection of Blake Corum as more of a "break in case of an emergency" type move, knowing that Williams missed time last season due to injury and that the rest of the Rams backfield is less than ideal. Numbers sometimes lie. However, when healthy, Williams saw 51% of the Rams' red-zone touches and targets, most among backs in the NFL.

I don't see Williams in the same way in dynasty as I see Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, or even Jahmyr Gibbs, meaning my roster will continue without Williams being part of it. If you go to my Dynasty Trade Value chart, you'll notice I am lower on Williams than the consensus, but he does have plenty of value and should fetch a mid-to-late first from another manager. If you are looking for a receiver in a trade, then you are likely looking at the George Pickens, DK Metcalf, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel Sr. tier of pass-catchers. I’d even be willing to say that may be on the low end of a Williams return. 

Draft running backs and trade for receivers.

Buy The Dip

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: 53
WR: 27

I am in the market to trade for receivers; George Pickens is currently coming off the board as the 27th wide receiver and 52nd player. I have Pickens ranked as my 36th-best player and the 21st-best receiver available. 

In the offseason, the Steelers upgraded at quarterback with the additions of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. They traded Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers and added former Michigan Wolverine Roman Wilson. So with that fantasy deck being shuffled, one can expect that first read percentage of 25.7% to increase further here in 2024. If teams decide to press Pickens, that would be a mistake, as he averaged 3.01 yards per route run last season, which trailed only Nico Collins and Tyreek Hill.

Right now, you can get Pickens for Kyren Williams, meaning I'd also be willing to offer up a late first to get Pickens on my roster today.

Many are predicting better offensive line and quarterback play from the Steelers in 2024, which should benefit Pickens moving forward. The only person who can stop Pickens is Arthur Smith.