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We will continue our early preseason look at each position with some thoughts on individual player values heading into 2021. We've already gone over first base and second base rankings. Today, we examine a fairly deep third base position.
As we prepare to flip the calendar to 2021, fantasy baseball managers are poring over MLB free agency news and the latest rankings. That includes our constantly-updated dynasty rankings.
The hot corner has seen a shift in values lately, as a new (old) #1 emerges and a once sure thing barely hangs on to a top-five rank. Let's examine the top players as well as some young players to keep an eye on.
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Dynasty Third Base Rankings
Preseason Thoughts
Manny Machado recaptures the top spot after a third-place MVP finish that quelled any concerns about his transition to San Diego. Machado's average dropped to .256 in his first season with the Friars but he finished with a career-best .304/.370/.580 slash line last season. It was a short sample, sure, but this is the type of excellence we'd seen from Machado between 2015-2018. The deciding factor that gives him the edge over J-Ram is a better supporting cast. The Padres were a young, contending team in 2020; now, they are going all-in for a championship run by stacking their rotation too.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has already parted with Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco with more moves possibly to come. Ramirez is linked in trade rumors to half the teams in the majors although he'll likely stay put for the time being. While he provides speed that is missing from Machado's game, his R+RBI upside takes a slight hit due to team context. An uncertain future doesn't drop him any further than the No. 2 spot, though.
Another trade candidate, Nolan Arenado, was considered the safest player at this position just two seasons ago. A down season in 2020 can be ignored but the fact that he is unhappy with the front office cannot be so easily dismissed. If Colorado isn't going to contend, the team may be ready to move his massive contract to get something in return before season's end when an opt-out contract kicks in. There's no doubt that a move out of Coors Field would impact his fantasy value negatively. A quick look at his career splits show a batting average nearly 60 points lower away from the thin air of Colorado and lower power numbers across the board.
For now, Arenado remains a top-five dynasty asset at third base but his value is pointing in the wrong direction.
Some fantasy managers were ready to elevate Rafael Devers to elite status after 2019 when he hit .311, slugged 32 home runs and drove in 115 runs. Those who paid close attention will remember a roller-coaster ride of streakiness. He didn't homer at all in April then caught fire over the next three months before slowing down toward the end of the year. He got off to a similarly slow start in 2020 and never got to the same heat level by the time 60 games was up. The Red Sox offense still isn't going to be the same without Mookie Betts but Devers should still have enough RBI opportunities to keep him among the league leaders. He has capitalized when given the chance, batting .316 with runners in scoring position last season and .289 with RISP for his career. Devers is a solid hold even if inconsistency prevents him from taking another step forward.
Cavan Biggio started 10 games at third base for the Jays in 2020 but he may take up permanent residence there in 2021. After landing George Springer but ultimately whiffing on Michael Brantley, despite premature reports to the contrary, the Jays are loaded offensively but in flux defensively. Vladimir Guerrero could always shift back to his former position with Rowdy Tellez holding down first base. Either way, these look to be temporary fixes until Austin Martin is ready for the bigs and assumes control of third base. Biggio will retain eligibility here at least for one more season but beyond that, it's anybody's guess.
Bohm did everything we could have hoped for in his rookie year. He did enjoy a .410 BABIP and surely won't hit .338 over the course of a full season but a .286 xBA does quiet some of those concerns about regression slapping him hard in the face. He sacrificed some of his natural power for contact, which was refreshing to see, but it's fair to wonder how long it will be before he reaches his full power potential. The fact he was regularly hitting in the top-third of the lineup by season's end is a terrific sign that he will be in a position to keep producing at a high level.
Another impressive rookie who exceeded expectations immediately, Ke'Bryan Hayes leaps up to 13 in my positional rankings ahead of Kris Bryant, who I'm ready to sell everywhere (at least I would if I had him anywhere). Hayes was thought by some to be a glove-first prospect with a good hit tool but a low power ceiling. He came through with his main calling card by batting .376 with a .300 xBA in his first 85 Major League at-bats. What nobody saw coming was the .682 SLG. Hayes posted an impressive 96.1% contact rate and 55% of the time it resulted in a hard-hit ball.
Five homers in such a small sample looks good but his xHR was 3.6 and none of those homers was considered a no-doubter. While Hayes has the ability to hit over .300 again, it could come with fewer than 20 HR and the RBI opportunities keep dwindling in this Pirates lineup. The long-term prognosis is still strong, however, due to his age and on-base skills.
Austin Riley provides quite the opposite of Hayes. He did cut down on his strikeout rate significantly in 2020 (23.8%) and isn't quite a three-outcome player but he is batting .232 over his first 503 MLB plate appearances. If Riley continues to hold off Johan Camargo for the third-base job, there's enough thump in his bat to make him a productive CI over the course of the season. By the end of 2021, this ranking of 20th might seem too low.
Deeper Options to Watch
Edwin Rios is climbing up draft lists in both redraft and dynasty, at least until the Dodgers re-ink Justin Turner to come back for another 2-3 years. If that doesn't happen, Rios may get a legit shot to win a starting job. Although he has all of 123 at-bats under his belt at the majors, he's proven the power is legit with a 17.6% Barrel% and 51.8% Hard%. There may not be a buy-low opportunity outside of shallow dynasty leagues but it is also not too late to make an offer.
Nolan Gorman may still be too raw to debut in 2020 but keep a close eye on him in the latter portion of the season. The former first-rounder has tremendous power but needs to patch up some of the holes in his swing first and wasn't afforded the chance to make adjustments last year in the minors. The Cardinals can't keep rolling out Matt Carpenter every day much longer. This is a team that finished with the third-fewest runs scored in 2020 and a team batting average of .234. A youth movement is needed but, like their divisional counterparts in Chicago, they may be a year too late in admitting it.
The other Nolan to watch is Nolan Jones in Cleveland. While Jose Ramirez isn't due to hit free agency outright until 2024, the stingy franchise could decline his club option next year or move him if a team is motivated enough to give up a haul of prospects before the trade deadline. Jones profiles similarly to Gorman based on size and power potential but has better on-base skills.
Josh Jung comes in as the top prospect in the Rangers' farm system as a top-10 pick in 2019. He is likely two years away from cracking the bigs after having his progress delayed by the abolishment of the minor-league season. He finished 2019 in Single-A (Full) hitting .287 with just one homer in 157 AB. There is no doubt he has the eye and makeup to be a successful pro but his power ceiling is a matter of debate.
A final name to keep in mind is Abraham Toro. The Astros have precious little depth at the infield corners and Yuli Gurriel is now 36 and coming off a career-worst season. Toro has struggled mightily in the majors thus far, slashing .182/.269/.327 in 186 plate appearances over parts of the past two seasons. He had no problem handling pitchers at Double-A and Triple-A, so it could just be a matter of time before he puts it all together.
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