Dylan Cease (SP, CHW) - Fantasy Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~250 (around Adrian Houser, Anthony DeSclafani, Sandy Alcantara)

CURRENT ADP: ~283 overall

ANALYSIS:

The White Sox have a few young arms of intrigue in Cease, Michael Kopech and Reynaldo Lopez. However, Cease may have the most upside for 2020. He has elite stuff, with a curveball that seemed electric last season and, according to FanGraphs, had the fourth most drop of any curve in the league. He also had positive pVALs on both his change and slider. The pitch that hurt him the most was his fastball, which he can run up in the high 90s but had a -15 pVAL. The good news is that Cease seems to know that and spent all offseason reportedly working on improving his fastball.

Another big improvement for Cease in 2020 will be the catcher he gets to throw to. According to BaseballProspectus’ Framing Adjusted Metric, the 2019 White Sox offered their emerging pitching talents little help behind the dish. James McCann’s -7.6 score was 101st out of 113 catchers tracked, while Welington Castillo’s -14 mark was 112nd. Enter Yasmani Grandal and his third-best 20.9 score. Yeah, we know Grandal is good and this is a general boost for CHW, but folks may not realize just how grim it was in ‘19. This is quite the swing, and his offensive power only helps the run support brigade as well.

Cease’s biggest issue is command, with an ugly 1.55 WHIP being juiced by a .326 BABIP, 10.7% walk rate and gaudy 1.85 HR/9 mark. The first 73 MLB innings of a career at the age of 23 with poor catchers is hardly enough to judge, and we still love the 81 K’s in 73 frames. If his first full MLB-focused offseason comes with some lessons and growth, on top of Grandal’s guidance and a better offense leading to more wins, Cease could follow Lucas Giolito in 2020 and I’d certainly be taking him over Kopech, who will be on an innings limit.