Drew Brees - Still a QB1 in Fantasy?

Drew Brees is arguably the greatest fantasy quarterback of all time. Seriously. Over the course of his 16 year career (excluding his rookie year where he didn't play), Brees has led the NFL in completions six times, pass attempts four times, completion percentage four times, yards seven times, and touchdowns four times. Only nine times in NFL history has a QB thrown for over 5,000 yards in a single season. Brees is the only one to do it more than once; he's done it five times.

At the ripe young age of 39, Drew Brees is still Drew Brees. He is not done - not even close. In fact, 2017 was one of the best seasons of Brees' career. He led the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt, true completion percentage and deep ball completion percentage, while finishing second in true passer rating and top five in both play action completion percentage and red zone completion percentage.

By all accounts, Brees is still an elite QB. Is that still the case in the fantasy football world, though?

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Still Great, But No Longer Elite

Unfortunately, Brees is no longer an elite fantasy QB - not even close. Here are Brees' fantasy yearly finishes going back six seasons.

2012: QB1
2013: QB2
2014: QB6
2015: QB4
2016: QB4
2017: QB13*

*QB11 if you remove Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers for having played just seven games each.

Now I know the initial impulse to say, "Well, he's still Drew Brees and he was a top half QB1 every year before last year so he'll be fine."

Normally, it's prudent to give the elite player the benefit of the doubt. That is acceptable when by all accounts, there's no obvious reason for the decline in production and it was just an anomalous year. Brees' 2017 dip in production was by no means a random occurrence.

There was one significantly change from 2016 to 2017: Alvin Kamara. With the addition of Kamara, the Saints, for the first time since way back when they had Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, had two very good running backs. The Saints ran the ball 444 times in 2017. For perspective, they ran the ball 404 times 2016, 397 in 2015, 406 in 2014, 391 in 2013, and 370 in 2012. I didn't go back further than 2012, but I did take a look at 2006, with Deuce and Reggie, where they ran the ball 472 times. Unsurprisingly, that was Brees' lowest touchdown total and one of his lowest yardage totals with the Saints. There's a clear connection between the volume and effectiveness of the Saints' running game and Brees' passing stats.

Last season, Brees attempted his fewest passes per game as a Saint. While he's still an excellent QB and fully capable of airing it out when necessary, in his old age, that is not what Sean Payton wants to do anymore. The Saints are going to continue to lean on their two running backs and dial back Brees' pass attempts. Brees' job will be to manage the game and then, when needed, become vintage Brees and put the team on his back.

Additionally, the Saints have continued to improve their defense. They traded up to acquire Defensive End Marcus Davenport in the NFL Draft and the majority of their meaningful offseason signings/contract extensions were on the defensive side of the ball. A better defense means fewer reasons for Drew Brees to have to air it out.

For fantasy purposes, as long as the Saints' running game is prolific, Brees' most likely finish is as a low end QB1, at best. With so many newer, younger players entering the QB1 fold, the days of Brees as a surefire QB1 are over. Brees' ADP will likely remain as a top six QB, which, honestly, is laughable. I do not currently and likely will not in August have Brees ranked as a top 12-QB.

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