RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~85 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~93
ANALYSIS: The receiver depth chart is barren in Atlanta. It includes names like Auden Tate and Olamide Zaccheaus. The Falcons have over 280 vacated targets last season with the loss of, most notably, Mike Davis, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, and Tajae Sharpe.
They combined for just under 1,800 receiving yards in 2021 and just under 200 receptions. It’s reasonable to expect second-year breakout player Kyle Pitts to soak up some of that volume, but he already had 110 targets and over 1,000 yards last year. He can’t handle everything.
While the perception might be the Falcons will run the ball more, the question is will they be able to? There’s no doubt head coach Arthur Smith would like to slow the game down with Marcus Mariota likely starting behind center, but they allowed the fourth-most points defensively last season.
They also averaged the second-fewest rushing yards. This will likely create a fairly fantasy-friendly environment for London to make a name for himself in Year One.
London left USC with a 27.3% target share according to PlayerProfiler, which ranked in the 82nd percentile and he had a breakout age of 18.1, 99th-percentile. His numbers as a junior look like something out of a video game.
His averages per game were absolutely ridiculous – 15.5 targets, 11 receptions, 136 yards, and just under one touchdown. Like I said, video game numbers. Even as a true freshman, despite fighting with future NFL standouts in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Michael Pittman, he earned 54 targets and turned them into 567 yards and 5 touchdowns.
He dominated in college and is walking into a situation where the expectation should be 115-120 targets in Year One, but the upside is much higher. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see London challenge for 130 targets as a rookie just because of how non-existent the target competition is after Pitts.
If you’re looking for the second-best bet for a top-24 finish at their respective positions, it’s Drake London. It may not be the most pretty ride, but the potential of a very healthy target share is undeniable. London injured his knee in their first preseason game and he hasn't returned since, but there's been nothing to suggest this will impact his Week 1 availability.
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