DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The ZOZO Championship Golf Advice With Kurt Kitayama, Doug Ghim and More (2024)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the ZOZO Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The ZOZO Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The ZOZO Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

Field

Field Size: 78
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 4

Last Five Winners of the ZOZO Championship

Expected Cut-Line At the ZOZO

*** No cut

Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour's drive east of Tokyo and features a claustrophobic design. Substantial tree-lined intangibles create the need for golfers to move the ball in multiple directions because of the facility's doglegs. Naturally, that puts extra credence in the bucket for accuracy over distance when talking about a 7,100-yard course that doesn't present a "bombs away" appeal. However, length isn't irrelevant if you try to think outside the box when making your model.

The most impactful scoring from a production or avoidance standpoint will come when a driver is in hand. We have five par-four holes that range between 486 to 505 yards that will rank as the most challenging locations for the week. That answer presents nearly a 50% dispersion expectation when faced with the par-four locations, and we also have this intriguing ensemble of par-five setups that I always call 'Goldilocks and The Three Bears' when writing my article yearly for the ZOZO Championship. One is easy, the second is just right, and the third is this 608-yard behemoth, which, on average, yields a 24.6 percent birdie or better rate. That will be one of the lower percentages you will see all season at any stop for a PGA event.

Unfortunately, research starts to go out the window from there because of the lack of trackable data on the course. We can still extrapolate some of the minor details to account for the four-year duration of numbers we will have at the property. Still, I always keep things minimal from an exposure sense when the trifecta of limited data, no-cut contest and smaller field narrative pops to the forefront of the conversation.

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total Driving + Proximity + Putting (30%)

Recent Ball Striking (10%)

Par 70 + Under 7,200 Yards (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Non-Easy Scoring (10%)

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

GIR (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 65 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

(Top 35 this week)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I thought it was one of those spots where books/DFS sites got the top three correct and placed them in the proper order.

That factor always generates a worse outright board since locations typically shy away from taking on more exposure than needed when the top of the slate lines up in a clean fashion like we have this week. However, I always try to find out if we can see where the error lies underneath this section in similar spots.

I would play Schauffele, Morikawa, Matsuyama in that exact order (I'd rather drop down than play Theegala) , but let's talk about the subtle mispricing I found in the tier below.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

You are going to see a lot of red in this section. 

I didn't find Sungjae Im or Justin Thomas to be horrible values on the surface of the answer. I do prefer moving up in scale and getting to the big three over using that group. Nonetheless, one of the apparent things here is how DraftKings played it safe by placing long-term successful golfers (who may have shakier recent form) in this tier and calling it a day.

I will deploy the $10,000 section more aggressively for that reason. Still, the mistake I found came from Kurt Kitayama, who graded first in my model over his past 24 rounds for ball striking and landed inside the top three of this contest from each 25-yard bucket between 150 to 175, 175 to 200, and 200+. 

With three somewhat challenging par-five holes and five par-fours measuring between 486 yards and 505 yards, Kitayama's long iron play can be a massive advantage over the field for a tournament that will somewhat mitigate his putting concerns since we should get a lower winning score than we have been accustomed to recently. 

When my model finds the clear-cut fourth choice much below his fellow competitors (especially when we have a solidified top three names), those are the areas in which I like to be ultra-aggressive.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I talked two weeks ago about how something has to give when it comes to Doug Ghim's profile.

The American had been putting on a masterclass in ball striking but had failed to deliver much of an upside total before his second-place showing at the Shriners.

My model placed Ghim behind only Kitayama for recent ball-striking, which adds to this putting surge recently, helping him to place number one in my sheet when adding together Total Driving, Approach and Putting into one category.

If Ghim's success on soft/fast greens can translate in Japan, victory could be around the corner.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

There was a lot to like in this section. My early lean is that I prefer Fishburn/Vegas, but you can see blue nearly across the board.

$6,000 Options to Consider

I am currently most in on Chandler Phillips and Lee Hodges 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Xander Schauffele
$9,000+ - Kurt Kitayama
$8,000+ - Doug Ghim
$7,000+ - See Above
$6,000+ - See Model

Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

***This still has time to change

$10,000+ - Sahith Theegala
$9,000+ - Si Woo Kim (My model would say Zalatoris, but he might be back). I never love playing $9,000+ for Si Woo. 
$8,000+ - Harry Hall
$7,000+ - Brendon Todd/Nick Taylor
$6,000+ - See Model

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks