DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Travelers Championship Golf Advice (2023)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Travelers Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Travelers Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 14

Last Five Winners Of The Travelers Championship

Expected Cut-Line

TPC River Highlands

6,841 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa (With Bentgrass)

TPC River Highlands was initially built in 1928 by Robert Ross but was re-designed twice in the 1980s by Pete Dye and Bobby Weed. The Dye and TPC narratives are always interesting to handicap because of the rollover production they present from a statistical perspective. That is something that we see with the track ranking inside the top 10 in terms of predictability when running it against all other courses that will be used in action in 2023.

On the surface, the 6,841-yard measurement and smaller-than-average greens would tell a story of short-game prowess and mid-iron play coming to the forefront of the discussion. While some of that will be important when traversing through the data, the off-the-tee metrics actually take center stage in the increase they receive from a regular stop since we see the dispersion of scoring ramp up from 15.3% to 18.3%.

All of that does come into play alongside the heightened mid-iron percentage that you might expect when we dive into 7.2% more shots occurring from 125-175 yards. Still, the best way to explain the situation is that if you are long and accurate off the tee, you can find yourself with extremely short totals into these greens. However, even if you are distance-declined on the scale, you can take advantage of the course if the mid-iron statistics pop over the four rounds to go along with the ability to find fairways.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

SG: Poa/Bent Putting (10%)

Strokes Gained Total TPC (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Pete Dye (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Short Courses (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

BoB% Short/TPC/Pete Dye (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Top 50 In All Six Categories:

23 of 26 names of have the cut through two weeks of tracking this in my model. Here are the results from last week.

This Week:

I will start updating these weekly on my model.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

It has become the standard weekly answer of trying to handicap a board where all the names in the $10,000 section are inside the top handful of my sheet. A lot of this comes down to gut and feel before we mix that in with ownership, but it is likely a two-man consideration for me on Monday.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) 

Many of the reasons I liked Patrick Cantlay will also be in play for Xander Schauffele. We do have to be cognizant of ownership and pick and choose our spots since we can't play everyone, but I prefer Cantlay this week, even if the popularity comes in a few percentage points higher.

Cantlay graded first in my sheet for all iterations of my model, and while we aren't going to get any natural leverage on this projection when we look at a Monday estimation of around 20%, it is hard for me to call anyone else the favorite over the American.

Cantlay placed first in this field for strokes gained total at both Pete Dye and short courses, and the top-ranked output for birdie or better when given a combination of short, TPC and Pete Dye tracks graded pronounced for a golfer that flirted with winning this title last year before his tumultuous 76 on Sunday dropped him from the top of the leaderboard and into 13th.

Jon Rahm ($10,800) 

I'd like to see where Jon Rahm lands with his projection before locking into this route since any influx of intrigue does marginally diminish going in this direction. However, it does feel like a situation where the general public is overlooking his upside.

Rahm's profile is stout across the board, including a much steadier tally with his flat stick than Scottie Scheffler's. I believe that is an intriguing thing to consider for his bounce-back capabilities at an ownership percentage barely landing in the top 20 on Monday.

The Spaniard has been better than the recent perception around him, and the Sunday surge at the U.S. Open may have been him reopening the floodgates of success. If all that still lands him as a contrarian option to consider, I will be there to take my chance.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Tony Finau ($9,700) 

I think we should keep a close eye on Collin Morikawa and Matthew Fitzpatrick over the next few days, but let's highlight Tony Finau in this section because of his contrarian nature and massive upside. 

My model found all the negatives regarding course history and current form for why the 33-year-old could struggle to succeed at TPC River Highlands. Three straight finishes outside the top 30 since the PGA Championship and three missed cuts in four attempts at this track won't necessarily be an ideal blueprint if you are trying to find safety. Still, the data tells a different story that gives that high-upside retrieval we seek in GPPs and future wagers. 

Finau ended up grading as one of 11 players in this field to post top 50 marks across the board in all seven categories I ran for the week, including a third-place rank for expected scoring when mimicking the data for this track. That is the kind of potential I like to see for wagers with sub-10 percent projections and reasonably acceptable outright totals. 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Shane Lowry ($8,200) 

If ownership remains steady over these next few days, I likely am a big enough glutton for punishment that I will be rostering Sungjae Im, Jason Day and Cameron Young. Sub-five percent for their high-end potential isn't always easy to find on these $8,000+ options on the DFS slate. Sure, the risk of implosion is there, but the ceiling is worth a shot.

All that presents more boom-or-bust names to consider, but let's also talk about Shane Lowry, a golfer who is the consistency of production inside my model for the Travelers Championship.

Lowry didn't do a ton to crack the win-equity answers of the three names I just mentioned. Still, there were a lot of similarities between Lowry and Tom Kim if trying to get different in builds by grabbing a choice that may be overlooked in this range. 

Lowry's four consecutive made cuts will play well at a course that does accentuate his total driving ability geared toward accuracy, and the strategical nature of a Dye course has always played well for the Irishman. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

Adam Scott ($7,900) 

You don't need me to tell you Russell Henley and Brian Harman are playable. I do that every week without question, even when they aren't two of the most popular golfers on the board. We will see where those totals come in and figure out if it is worth eating the chalk in a few days, but let's instead go over to Adam Scott and talk about why he should be in consideration after burning many at the U.S. Open.  

The Aussie ranked as the highest golfer for me inside the $7,000s because of his steady output in all areas, making him the only sub-$8,000 name to crack the top 50 of all seven categories for the event. 

Scott's 28-spot improvement for expected weighted tee-to-green plays nicely into his increase for putting on Poa/Bent splits, and it shows how quickly everyone can forget about a player that had produced 24 consecutive worldwide cuts before his mishap in California.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

More answers will come over the next few days.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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