RADIO
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The RBC Canadian Open
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- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The RBC Canadian Open
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 4
Last Five Winners of The RBC Canadian Open
| 2023 | Nick Taylor | -17 |
| 2022 | Rory McIlroy | -19 |
| 2021 | Covid | |
| 2020 | Covid | |
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | -22 |
*** Rory's 2019 victory was the only one held at Hamilton
Expected Cut-Line At Hamilton
| 2023 | |
| 2022 | |
| 2021 | |
| 2020 | |
| 2019 | -1 |
Hamilton Golf and Country Club
7,084 - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass/Poa
Located in Ancaster, Ontario, renowned English architect Harry Colt designed 18 of the current 27 holes in 1914, with Robbie Robinson adding the additional nine in 1974. Naturally, only 18 of those locations will be used this week for the PGA Tour's return to Hamilton Golf and Country Club. Nonetheless, the facility has additional question marks that need to be answered after Martin Ebert recently performed a restoration that cost 11.5 million dollars to restore the course closer to what Colt had envisioned in 1914.
When we look back at what this course possessed in 2019 when we last saw it in the rotation, you got this tight, strategic test off the tee that diminished driving accuracy by over 7% versus a standard tour stop. The one minor change we will get this go-around will be the increase from 6,832 yards to 7,074 yards. However, we are still talking about one of the shorter venues on tour by PGA Tour standards, which is where Rory McIlroy's runaway victory when he posted a 22-under score and won by seven shots might not tell the complete story of the challenge that the layout possesses for the field because of the inferior yardage total.
Ebert rebuilt all 27 greens to include your classic Bentgrass/Poa split. He also added new tees and modernized bunkers that will keep the challenge that the facility had five years ago but do so in a fashion that plays better for today's game regarding positioning. Undulation will be a critical component for a green complex that expanded in size to 6,000 feet. That is closer to the PGA Tour average and may add a little less around-the-green impact than we got in the last iteration at this track, but I don't want that notion to minimize just how challenging and consequential it is for all players to be able to salvage a score when they do miss a green in regulation.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Hamilton | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 283 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 54% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 61% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.50 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
Recent Weighted SG:Total (Geared Toward Hamilton (10%)
Strokes Gained: Total Short Courses (10%)
Strokes Gained: Total Par 70s (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Weighted Scrambling (10%)
Heightened Proximity + Short Game (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model
![](data:image/svg+xml,<svg%20xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"%20viewBox="0%200%20599%20459"></svg>)
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Odds | Risk | Win |
| Tom Kim | 45 | 0.16 | 7.2 |
| Chandler Phillips | 225 | 0.03 | 6.75 |
| Sahith Theegala | 22 | 0.32 | 7.04 |
Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories
(Not a negative value over five spots off, including upside totals)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are eight players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
You are going to find the top three players in this tournament at the very top of my model. I am okay with anyone who wants to start a build with any of those three options.
Ownership will play the critical decider since DraftKings made it easy enough to get to Rory McIlroy, but all three choices are in play and should be considered. I would assume that factor of how easy it is to get to McIlroy has him go off the board at over 40%, but those are questions that we can answer over the next 24-48 hours when we get more clarity.
My early lean is that Tommy Fleetwood becomes the choice who is more contrarian than the other two. I had Fleetwood graded inside the top 10 when running my seven main categories (the second-most in this field), which places the Englishman in a nice contrarian spot as everyone potentially rushes elsewhere.
Theegala is going to be my preferred outright target, although Fleetwood currently carries that mantle for DFS until something changes in the projections.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
The $9,000 range was relatively straightforward in my model. I had three values compared to their price and three overpriced commodities. You can see who those players are in the image above.
I don't have many gripes in Alex Noren's profile outside of ownership. There is a reason he has been one of the steadier golfers in the world during the 2024 season. However, I will take a contrarian stance in this article to make this piece different from everything you might read elsewhere.
My model liked Sam Burns' early leverage. It isn't the safe outlook you get from a name such as Noren, but if the ownership doesn't trend in his direction, there is a lot to like about his chances.. My model placed him seventh when I combined the heightened proximity ranges at Hamilton with the entire aggregated outlook for short-game returns, adding to the additional strong expectations for a golfer who also saw a vast increase when faced with short Par 70 courses.
If Noren isn't as popular as expected, you can very easily add him to the mix here when talking about my favorite play.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
One of my favorite things about Tom Kim is that while he has started to turn things around after a slow start to the season, the market has yet to catch up to his recent surge.
Kim's 50/1 opening outright price and $8,600 price tag will leave a lot of meat on the bone to consider for a golfer who placed fourth in my model for expected scoring at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. I thought Kim should have been nearly $1,000 more expensive.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
Ben Griffin landed as one 15 players this week inside the top 60 of my model for all seven categories that I ran from a numerical perspective. That joined Davis Thompson and Taylor Pendrith as the only three players from this section to accomplish the feat.
Grffin graded eighth in my model for Weighted Scrambling, ninth for Weighted Scoring and seventh for Recent Production when recalculating the data to fit Hamilton Golf and Country Club from a Strokes Gained Total handicap.
$6,000 Options to Consider
I am curious to see where Kyoung-Hoon Lee and Mac Meissner land with their ownership.
My model had Lee as one of my favorite head-to-head targets, evidenced by the early grab I took of him over Sam Stevens. It also placed Meissner as the second-best outright target when everything opened on Monday. We will get to the top name in the section below.
I prefer Meissner for GPP contests because of that high upside profile if the ownership stays low enough.
$5,000 Options to Consider
Chandler Phillips has been all-or-nothing lately, posting two missed cuts and two top 12s in his past six starts.
I am going to bet on the upside of his profile, which ranked first in this field from 125-150 yards and eighth for Weighted Strokes Gained Total.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Tommy Fleetwood
$9,000+ - Sam Burns
$8,000+ - Tom Kim
$7,000+ - Ben Griffin
$6,000+ - Mac Meissner
$5,000+ - Chandler Phillips
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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