DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Open Championship With Tyrrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Smith and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Open Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Open Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 158
Cut: Top-70 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 20

 

Last Five Winners of the Open Championship

2023	Brian Harman	-13
2022	Cameron Smith	-20
2021	Collin Morikawa	-15
2019	Shane Lowry	-15
2018	Francisco Molinari	-8

 

Expected Cut-Line At The Open

2023
2022
2021
2019
2018

 

Royal Troon

7,385 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

We will go over the course on my podcasts this week!

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	Royal Troon	PGA Average
Driving Distance	N/A	283
Driving Accuracy	55%	61%
GIR Percentage	56%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	52%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.48	0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Strokes Gained: Open Championship (10%)

 

Comp Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (20%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Scrambling From The Sand (10%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Collin Morikawa	18	0.39	7.02
Tommy Fleetwood	25	0.28	7
Alex Noren	130	0.05	6.5
Cam Smith	50	0.13	6.5
Tyrrell Hatton	28	0.24	6.72

 

Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories

The winner continues to consistently come from this list.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

We will see where ownership lands, but my early inclination is to start most builds in the $9,000 range.

That doesn't suggest that the entire section is going to be treated as fade candidates, but the more significant takeaway I want everyone to hear from that is: "If we see similar ownership with this range compared to the few high-end players I like in the $9,000s, I would rather take the discount in price."

Otherwise, McIlroy and Schauffele intrigue me most to be played equal to consensus, with Dechambeau landing as the one true fade early in the week. I also have no issues playing a low-owned Rahm.

 

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

It is funny because some of your best and worst values will land with the LIV golfers. 

I am out on Brooks Koepka. However, Tyrrell Hatton has that ideal profile that I am trying to find every week of a golfer with a ceiling outcome that outweighs his baseline. That is one of the ways I always locate win equity inside of my sheet. I may not always come up with the right decision when it is staring me in the face in the outright market (Robert MacIntyre in Scotland), but Hatton's upside is tantalizing when we look at his top 10 grades for Comp Course Production, Expected Strokes Gained Total and Weighted Scrambling. That is why MacIntyre became my favorite DFS value on Wednesday, which will likely go in the same direction here for Hatton. 

You can see from my outright card that I also found myself on Morikawa + Fleetwood. The strength of the trio in this section was one of the reasons I decided to find myself overweight to this range.

I have been on record numerous times that the lack of perceived win equity for options like Fleetwood, Hatton, etc., overly hurt their public perception, but you don't have to look any further than the sharper markets already reacting favorably to each choice. 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I have no issues with anyone who wants to take a chance with Tom Kim. I think he fits all the ball-striking narratives of Troon quite ideally. However, my favorite play is going to be the now-overlooked Cameron Smith.

Some were giving way too much hype to Smith at the U.S. Open, and now the answer is that nobody wants to take a shot on a golfer who graded inside the top 10 of my sheet for overall rank has moved too far in the other direction.

Smith's top-10 ranks for Open Championship Pedigree, Comp Course Expectation and Scrambling From Troubled Lies made him one of my favorite outright bets on the board at 50/1.

As I said at the beginning, these LIV golfers are the best and worst options on this board.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Alex Noren is going to be more boom-0r-bust than Aaron Rai, but there are notable reasons to consider either option for different iterations of the market. 

I decided to roll with Noren for the upside markets because of that high ceiling output at a higher price, but Rai will likely land somewhere between an overweight DFS commodity and a potential placement wager to consider. 

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

This is the epitome of soft pricing in a major.

We could have an extensive discussion about how multiple of these options could be $1,000+ more expensive, but I will go with the model having Louis Oosthuzien and Sungjae Im as the two best pure values.

$5,000 Options to Consider

Mackenzie Hughes was the only golfer to grade inside the top-50 of my overall model from this section.

We have joked this year that my model has been accurate on him with whatever direction it takes, so I wouldn't mind seeing if there is a way to get exposure to him in some capacity

 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - I prefer the $9,000 range
$9,000+ - Collin Morikawa/Tyrrell Hatton/Tommy Fleetwood
$8,000+ - Cameron Smith
$7,000+ - Aaron Rai/Alex Noren
$6,000+ - Sungjae Im/Louis Oosthuizen
$5,000+ - Mackenzie Hughes

 

Fade In Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Bryson DeChambeau
$9,000+ - Brooks Koepka
$8,000+ - No massive take
$7,000+ - Worst values in this range were:

$6,000+ - Tiger Woods
$5,000+ - Too many names to list

 

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