DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Genesis Scottish Open With Xander Schauffele, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tom Hoge, Alexander Bjork and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Genesis Scottish Open

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Genesis Scottish Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 14

 

Last Five Winners of the Genesis Scottish Open

2023	Rory McIlroy	-15
2022	Xander Schauffele	-7
2021	Min Woo Lee	-18
2019	Aaron Rai	-11
2018	Bernd Wiesberger	-22

 

Expected Cut-Line At The Genesis

2023	-1
2022	4
2021
2020
2019

 

Renaissance Club

7,237 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Fescue

We will go over the course on my podcasts this week!

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	Renaissance Club	PGA Average
Driving Distance	294	283
Driving Accuracy	48%	61%
GIR Percentage	60%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	53%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.44	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Ball-Striking (Geared Toward Renaissance Club) (10%)

 

Weighted BOB + Bog AVD (10%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Expected Driving + Putting (10%)

 

Long Iron + Schrambling (10%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Sahith Theegala	50	0.14	7
Alexander Bjork	600	0.05	30
Sam Stevens	200	0.03	6
Matthew Fitzpatrick	40	0.15	6
Ludvig Aberg	18	0.38	6.84
Tom Hoge	125	0.05	6.25

Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories + Feature At Least One T10 Grade

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

There are two ways to view this board this week. This could be more of an outright betting answer than a discussion we should have in a DFS piece, but I found an interesting viewpoint within my model when talking about the very top of this slate.

1. Xander Schauffele graded about as well as anyone has all season regarding projected win equity. I understand I have been higher on him almost every week for the past seven months, but I didn't find the 9/1 totals in the space outlandish for him to capture the title.
2. Outside of Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg, this board has many issues directly beneath that section. I have no issues with McIlroy's inclusion in that discussion because of his U.S. Open mishap, but if Xander or Aberg don't win, this board is wide open!

We play this game frequently, with the winner consistently ranking in my top 20 names. Sometimes, we get the call correct. Other times, we leave a Davis Thompson (ranked 4th) on the sidelines.

I could go on and on about why Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, and Brian Harman could just as quickly have made my outright betting card, but it is tough to have an honest discussion for DFS that wouldn't place Schauffele as the prohibitive favorite.

 

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

It is pretty easy to see the spots where my model is higher or lower than consensus in this range. A few times a year, I might override some of what my model is saying, but the negative-valued players in my sheet will most likely be my fade candidates.

I am going to play Matthew Fitzpatrick because of his Links-style pedigree. The Englishman landed in the top six at this track in two of the past three years and graded sixth when running Long Iron + Scrambling totals. 

I thought the outright market was a little too low on him because of his recent volatility.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

There is a lot to like about Wyndham Clark and Sahith Theegala when shooting for pure upside in contests. There are very few players who possess that driving + putting combination as well as those two options.

I probably prefer Theegala over Clark because of where the early ownership is trending, but I likely will have exposure to both.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

My player pool right now would include every name between Tom Hoge and Erik Van Rooyen on that list above. We can discuss all those options further throughout the week (Discord is always a great place to start), but my preferred choice would be Tom Hoge. 

Hoge is checking all the boxes outside of his Weighted Total Driving, which includes a second-place rank for Weighted Proximity and a fifth-place grade for Long Iron + Scrambling. 

Sure, his driver has some problems attached to the upside potential, but there is a straightforward recipe for success if he can outrank his already respectable 29th-place Weighted Putting projection. 

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

I expressed all the reasons I didn't like Sam Stevens last week at the John Deere Classic. His 34th-place finish didn't warrant the $9,000+ price tag, but I thought the market overcorrected itself with his going rate this weekend at the Renaissance Club.

Stevens ranked 12th for Weighted Scoring and eighth for Expected Driving + Putting.

I decided to take a shot on him in the outright market at 200/1 because I believe this board gets weak fast, but this $6,200 price is a rebate compared to where it should be this week. Switch results at the John Deere with Davis Thompson, and you probably would have gotten these two reversing on the board.

I like Thompson, so that isn't a direct shot, but it is more of a vindication of Stevens' playability. 

$5,000 Options to Consider

Alexander Bjork has been extremely solid at the venue in the past, finishing inside the top 42 over the past four seasons.

From a statistical perspective, many of those results should be credited to his ideal fit for the Renaissance Club. Bjork graded inside the top 10 of my model when combining Expected Off The Tee + Approach + Putting, Long Iron + Scramble and a high-end mark with the putter that made him much more of a 100/1 sort of golfer than this 600/1 price that FanDuel released early on Monday. 

 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Xander Schauffele
$9,000+ - Matthew Fitzpatrick
$8,000+ - Sahith Theegala
$7,000+ - Tom Hoge
$6,000+ - Sam Stevens
$5,000+ - Alexander Bjork

 

Fade In Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Collin Morikawa
$9,000+ - Tom Kim
$8,000+ - No true fade. I will be lower on some options, but I do believe a lot of those names will naturally carry lower ownership.
$7,000+ - Billy Horschel
$6,000+ - Ownership will matter this far down the board.
$5,000+ - Same as above

 

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