DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Charles Schwab Challenge With Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, Harris English, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, Mark Hubbard, Justin Lower and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Charles Schwab Challenge

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Charles Schwab Challenge

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 132
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 4

Last Five Winners of The Charles Schwab Challenge

Expected Cut-Line 

Colonial Country Club

7,209 - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass

Colonial Country Club is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour. You would think that factor demonstrates a birdie fest since it is known to play up to 200 yards less than the scorecard would indicate on any given day. However, length doesn't necessarily make a venue problematic, which we see with the track consistently grading as one of the more challenging stops yearly.

Tree-lined fairways and forced layups begin to stymie second shots if drives go wayward off the tee. The most interesting return from that sentiment is that distance is completely eradicated from the equation, while accuracy doesn't necessarily jump significantly in importance either when you consider the 3.4% decrease in overall off-the-tee data. I do want to note that it is not as if accuracy is irrelevant since we are looking at a 0.25-shot correlation difference in accuracy over distance. Still, more of my concerns will stem from the zero-impact return we get from all driving metrics from top to bottom. 

Naturally, a decrease in one sector will heighten the significance elsewhere, something we get with approach and putting grading as two critical components for success. The smaller-than-average greens and yearly increase in the field's performance with a putter should be deemed noteworthy because it generates an isolated distribution that renders 6.2% more putts holed from 10-25 feet than average. Essentially, that is a unique result since irons are being hit further when it comes to average proximity than usual for a course that delivers a 4.3% dispersion increase for Strokes Gained: Approach. My opinion would be that hitting a green in regulation ends up outweighing everything else to yield such a projection, although this continues to grade as a prototypical pitch-and-putt track in all aspects of the word, even if Gil Hanse did a restoration to the property to alter some of the past expectations. 

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Strokes Gained: Texas (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Short Par 70 Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total;Wind (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Approach + Weighted Putt + GIR (20%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are eight players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I want to see where ownership lands, but we got an expected top-four on DraftKings. My model doesn't necessarily agree with the Jordan Spieth price tag because it returns an answer derived from Spieth's course history and past Texas success, which is why I likely will find myself removing him from my player pool and making core decisions from the other three options. 

Ownership and price tag aside, my model believed that the trio should be ranked Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Max Homa in terms of overall projections for the week. We will see if leverage plays a factor in moving me away from that viewpoint over the next few days, something we might get from Morikawa being priced at $11,000 and projecting below those around him in popularity. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

A realistic option that you have at your disposal is to start builds in this range with Brian Harman and Harris English. My model landed under the mentality that both featured as the best outright values on the board when things opened on Monday.

Harman's sixth-place grade for Weighted Strokes Gained Total and fifth-place mark for Expected Scoring landed him next to Max Homa and J.T. Poston as the only two options to deliver such a return. Names such as Scheffler and Morikawa got hit too heavily for their lack of putting metrics since my model believed true win equity will be shown by the ability to make putts. 

I will aggressively be playing both English and Harman in DFS contests.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Sepp Straka and Keegan Bradley are my two favorite plays in this section before ownership becomes a factor.

My model seems to believe that Bradley will be marginally under-the-radar compared to others around him. If I could have another crack at an outright card, Bradley might have made the list. He was the closest thing for me this week when it came to someone who just landed on the outside looking in for the week. 

Straka, on the other hand, joined Bradley as one of only nine golfers in this field to grade in the top 60 of all six categories I weighed numerically. That profile left something to be desired in pure upside marks, but his fifth-place rank for Weighted Approach + Weighted Putting + GIR Percentage was the high-end return I needed to chase his recent form. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I talked about how I would aggressively pursue English/Harman in the $9,000 section, and we get the same sentiment here with Mark Hubbard, Lucas Glover, Aaron Rai and J.T. Poston. 

You can get the deep-dive breakdown for each player within my model!

$6,000 Options to Consider

My model loved Justin Lower this week. Lower ranked second in this field for Weighted Approach + Weighted Putting + GIR Percentage and also delivered a top-10 score for Expected Strokes Gained Total. 

$5,000 Options to Consider

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Collin Morikawa
$9,000+ - Brian Harman
$8,000+ - Sepp Straka
$7,000+ - Mark Hubbard, Lucas Glover, Aaron Rai and J.T. Poston.
$6,000+ - Justin Lower

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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