DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The BMW Championship With Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Denny McCarthy, Adam Hadwin, Jason Day and Sahith Theegala More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The BMW Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The BMW Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 50
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 17

 

Last Five Winners of the BMW

2023	Viktor Hovland	-17
2022	Patrick Cantlay	-14
2021	Patrick Cantlay	-27
2019	Jon Rahm	-4
2018	Justin Thomas	-25

 

Expected Cut-Line At The St. Jude

(No cut this week) - First time at the course

2023
2022
2021
2020
2019

 

Castle Pines

8,130 Yards - Par 72 - Bent-Poa

I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	Castle Pines	PGA Average
Driving Distance		283
Driving Accuracy		61%
GIR Percentage		65%
Scrambling Percentage		57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round		0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Strokes Gained: Total - Recent Form (Not Weighted) (10%)

 

Weighted Comp Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Strokes Gained: Nicklaus (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Elevation (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Price
Collin Morikawa	18.75
Eric Cole	125
Ludvig Aberg	27

 

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

 

Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories

(Top 28 this week) - I excluded pure putting

 

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

There is nobody safer on the board than Scottie Scheffler, but the fact that my model didn't grade him first overall and had him outside the top two for upside will likely move me in the direction of trying to take on the only golfer priced above $11,100 this week.

Two of the more recent times Xander has eclipsed Scheffler in my model have resulted in him winning his major championship titles, and it is not as if outside factors haven't contributed to some of Scheffler's more lackluster results on the schedule this season.

That doesn't mean this won't end with a top-five output, but my model questioned some of his recent trending form and dead-last rank for "Comp Putting."

I prefer taking a rebate on Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg and hoping that the savings will result in a more balanced build + three-on-one outlook when shooting for win equity.

 

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

We are going to have to weigh upside and ownership concerns for pretty much every player in this section, but my model did find value in Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns, Russell Henley and Sungjae Im.

Let's see where ownership lands before deciding, but that would be the group I am most excited to back.

I worry that names like Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark will carry far too much popularity for what my model projected for them.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

It feels like a nice buy-back spot for Sahith Theegala. When faced with extra elevation, the American ranked inside the top 10 of my projected model and continued that run with a top-seven grade for Expected Scoring.

I was very outspoken last week about not loving Jason Day for the St. Jude Championship. Funny enough, the outcome probably was borderline consistent with that take after only landing 22nd on the board, but Day landed as one of the biggest underachievers of the week because of his stellar ball-striking marks until Sunday's round.

Consider his scrambling ability and Comp Course history at secondary venues a good sign that he is peaking for the second round of the playoffs.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Denny McCarthy was the only golfer under $8,000 to grade inside the top 28 of all seven categories that I weighed this week.

Davis Thompson continues to be underrated by the market.

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

I am going to leave Eric Cole out of the discussion here because I do believe he is going to be very popular after multiple good showings in a row. For me, Adam Hadwin is going to be the contrarian target to consider.

Hadwin was someone I faded in a matchup last week when I took Erik Van Rooyen, but as I always say, each course dictates new thoughts.

Hadwin ranked fourth in my model for Comp Putting, ninth for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, 10th for Similar Elevation and 16th for Nicklaus designs. 

We have talked a lot about Hadwin's ability to find high-end success on the west coast, which is why we moved the number over on BetOnline against Cameron Davis when we grabbed the Canadian at -110 over the Aussie.

 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Xander Schauffele/Collin Morikawa/Ludvig Aberg
$9,000+ -Patrick Cantlay/Tommy Fleetwood/Sam Burns/Russell Henley/Sungjae Im
$8,000+ - Sahith Theegala/Jason Day
$7,000+ - Davis Thompson/Denny McCarthy
$6,000+ - Adam Hadwin

 

Fade In Each Section (Wednesday):

I will update this when ownership shows up in 24-48 hours

$10,000+ - 
$9,000+ -
$8,000+ -
$7,000+ -
$6,000+ -

 

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