DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Black Desert Championship Golf Advice With Seamus Power, Patrick Fishburn, Andrew Novak, Chandler Phillips, Ben Kohles and Sami Valimaki More (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Black Desert Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

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• The Black Desert Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
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Field

Field Size: 132
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0

Last Five Winners of the Black Desert

Expected Cut-Line At The Black Desert

*** The venue looks straightforward. I would expect this to be somewhere around four to six under.

Black Desert

7,371 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bentgrass

I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Driving + Approach + Putting (30%)

Weighted Putting (10%)

Weighted Driving + Approach + Putting - Recent (Not Course-Specific) (10%)

Similar Elevation (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Driving (10%)

Weighted Prox (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 65 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

The consensus takeaway for this event is that we have a watered-down field.

While that notion is unarguably true when we dive into the lackluster names teeing it up this week, Seamus Power checked all the boxes I wanted to see when trying to find a superstar golfer in this field.

My model ranked the Irishman first in all iterations of the sheet, including a runaway statistical grade for Driving + Approach + Putting that nearly doubled everyone else this week.

I will find myself substantially overweight to Power and will likely be lock-buttoning him because of his combination of upside and safety.

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Unfortunately, the hometown narrative for Patrick Fishburn is going to cause a spike in ownership.

I was hoping we would get a missed-cut performance out of him at the Sanderson to condense this as much as possible, but this answer goes far above it taking place in Utah for those wanting to create a story for playability.

Fishburn ranked first for course-specific par-five scoring and was the first name behind Seamus Power when combining driving, approach play and putting for Black Desert.

As I noted in a section above, Fishburn again joined Power as one of only five players to rank in the top 60 of all seven categories.

In my opinion, those are the two best players in this tournament.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I had some trepidation about leaving Andrew Novak off the outright card after betting him last week, although the combination of the reduction in price for his futures and the ability to use more of him in DFS made it easy to go in this direction if I am trying to find extra exposure this week. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Expected Popular Plays That I like: Doug Ghim ($7,900), Chandler Phillips ($7,600)

Chandler Phillips was a top-10 recent producer in the key stats that I am examining this week. 

The driver isn't perfect since it ranks outside the top 70 of this field, but I would say Doug Ghim is the safe target for a build, while Phillips has more boom-or-bust to his game. 

Expected Contrarian Plays That I like: Ben Kohles ($7,300), Sami Valimaki ($7,100)

Ben Kohles and Sami Valimaki graded as the only two golfers in this field priced below $9,600 who cracked the top 60 of all seven categories I weighed this week.

If my model ends up being right about either, these are massive mispricings.

$6,000 Options to Consider

Let's see where ownership lands in this section.

It is worth noting that some of these players have VERY LITTLE data to pull from and are in terrible form.

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Seamus Power
$9,000+ - Patrick Fishburn
$8,000+ - Andrew Novak
$7,000+ - See Above
$6,000+ - 

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