DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am With Max Homa, Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The AT&T Pebble Beach Model

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 80
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 18

Last Five Winners Of The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM

Expected Cut-Line - No cut this week!

However, here is a general gauge of how players have performed

Pebble Beach Pro-Am

6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa

I noted last year how the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am had one of the worst fields in tournament history after they missed out on most of the high-end talent. Well, what a difference a year makes for an event when you slot it into being an elevated contest and add a purse of 20 million for the 80 players teeing it up this week.

Some of the Pro-Am nature will still be in effect on Thursday and Friday, as players will be forced to rotate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill with their amateur partners. We do lose Monterey Peninsula from the mix throughout the entire duration + the amateurs on the weekend when everything heads back to Pebble Beach for the final two rounds, but there are some intriguing notes about the courses this year that could alter the proceedings.

At its most basic level, Spyglass is the more difficult of the two venues, typically playing between a half shot to two shots more challenging on a given day. The natural argument would be to take a similar approach as last week when we mixed the Torrey Pines' North and South to account for those deviations. Still, I am not sure we won't get a more challenging test at Pebble this year if the projected weather forecasts ravage this event.

Unlike Spyglasses' tree-lined disposition, Pebble Beach has very little protection on the coast. Greens that measure the smallest on tour could increase the need for around-the-green and bunker play if the tournament becomes unhinged.

I always note how Pebble's fourth-widest fairways on tour and small green complexes turn this into a second-shot course and putting contest. If every golfer hits their tee shot to the same area (with minimal missed-fairway penalty), it naturally emphasizes those two factors. We will see if this star-studded field decides to play it any differently in the extreme conditions, but the course's layout demands a particular strategy off the tee since hitting a driver doesn't make a ton of sense on a handful of the holes.

The ability to handle Poa green complexes, extreme weather, and iron proximity from 0-125 yards is required to take down this potentially more challenging version of Pebble Beach.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (35%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total Last 24 Rounds (15%)

Strokes Gained: Total Less Than 7,200 Yards (10%)

Strokes Gained: Total Wind (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Pitch-and-Putt Scoring (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

• Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,400) - I might have considered putting Xander Schauffele into this section if the event had a cut. Schauffele has put together a tournament-leading 37 consecutive made cuts. Still, the fact that we are going to need to shoot for maximum upside over four rounds of golf does place Scheffler into a class of his own when talking about safety. Scheffler is the number one wind player in this field if the weather at Pebble Beach collapses, and there isn't a higher projected scorer this week. That is a standard answer to be given for any tournament, but Scheffler's increase over Collin Morikawa in second was about as significant as I have seen in quite some time.
• Most Upside: Rory McIlroy ($11,500) - I am going to call this now. 2024 is going to be the year of Rory McIlroy. We are living in a world where anything less than a major championship is a disappointment for his season. However, Rory's improving short iron play may be the difference-maker at Pebble. With no major championship on the line, I think we get his best effort over all four rounds. My data thought he was the deserving favorite on the slate.
• Favorite GPP Play: Rory McIlroy ($11,500)
• Fade: Viktor Hovland ($10,200) - I'd consider this a nit-picky "fade" call. We will see where the ownership trends over the next few days, but the early data suggests gamers are going to be inclined to pay down for Hovland over any other route. My model likes him fine in a vacuum situation. However, his negative trajectory for projected proximity at the course, poor Poa putting, and suspicious around the green returns made him my least favorite option of the four. When we can't play everyone, you need a reason to fade someone.
• Most Likely Winner: Rory McIlroy ($11,500) 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Collin Morikawa ($9,100) - I alluded to Collin Morikawa grading second in my model for weighted scoring at Pebble Beach a second ago. Gamers are likely going to jump off the American after his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, but his exact upside will come down to the flat stick. If he makes putts, there is win equity to go along with this floor, which is a comment from someone who never plays Morikawa.
• Most Upside: Max Homa ($9,200) - I've always thought a nasty-weathered Open Championship would be Homa's best chance to win a major, which means I don't expect these harsh conditions to affect one of the better pure scramblers on tour. Homa experienced a 24-spot improvement for weighted proximity at the course because of the allotment of 33.4% of shots coming from within 125 yards. I get he is going to be extremely popular, but I also believe the public has gotten this answer right.
• Favorite GPP Play: Ludvig Aberg ($9,000) - Ludvig Aberg gained over seven strokes ball-striking at the Farmers Insurance Open. Unfortunately, his first time putting on Poa didn't land under the same answer. DFS gamers have a habit of overblowing certain factors, and while we do lose some of his driving ability advantage, it is not as if the RSM Classic didn't do the same to his game. If Aberg is sub-10 percent, I will be firing off again, hoping he has learned quickly how to putt better on Poa than attempt number one. 
• Fade: Jordan Spieth ($9,400) - Here is a prime example of how to dispirit 90% of your readers:
  1. Recommend fading a popular Viktor Hovland in section one 
  2.  Follow it up by fading the golfer who may be bet on more outright cards than any other name. 

Spieth has been an enigma at this tournament. From high-end finishes. To results outside the top 50. To nearly falling off a cliff. I just don't know if his upside is what people believe it to be at this point in his career. I will let him beat me as a chalk choice. 

• Most Likely Winner: Max Homa ($9,200)

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) - The statistical data inside my model will like Tommy Fleetwood more than the course history or past form indicators. The Englishman produced top-20 grades for expected strokes gained total over the past 24 rounds and over the last two years, two separate portions of my model. There are always some concerns about his win equity when you pay this price, but a more difficult Pebble Beach would help if nobody is going to use him. I would take my chances if he lands as a contrarian choice.
• Most Upside: Sungjae Im ($8,400) - Like the Collin Morikawa discussion, Sungjae's missed cut at Torrey Pines shifted him down the board a little too far. I don't want to pretend the floor doesn't have issues if his popularity climbs, but these short/windy tests are proper tracks for him to grind out a score. I don't mind taking a shot in large-field contests.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600)
• Fade: Cameron Young ($8,700) - Young's recent approach down-turn has been too extreme if he continues to grade as one of the worst short-game players on tour. I am fine waiting for him to get back to his older form. There are other contrarian shots I would prefer taking, notably the two other players listed all over this section. 
• Most Likely Winner: Sungjae Im ($8,400) 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

• Safest Play: J.T. Poston ($7,900) - Poston ranked first in my model at these "pitch-and-putt" contests. The 12 consecutive made cuts and 17 rounds in a row of shooting par or better should show why Poston has turned himself into a legitimate top 30 player in the world. The price remains too cheap.
• Most Upside: Wyndham Clark ($7,400) - It hasn't been a great run for Wyndham Clark since winning the U.S. Open last year, but I'd argue this is the best course fit we have seen for him in quite a while. My model projected him in the top 10 for win equity when removing all floor answers from everyone in the field, which gets further emphasized by his top-10 grade for weighted strokes gained total when using Pebble Beach qualifying metrics. While the data hasn't been great, the needed qualities that Pebble will require have been stellar.
• Favorite GPP Play: Denny McCarthy ($7,500) - McCarthy is a Poa stud who sees an increase in projected proximity at this track. His top-five grade for "pitch-and-putt" scoring in my model should show why he has landed inside the top 12 during back-to-back appearances at this tournament. Yes, the field is stronger, but the price is still too cheap. 
• Fade: Images above show quite a handful of golfers I won't be on this week. Dark red is never good. 
• Most Likely Winner: Wyndham Clark ($7,400)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Patrick Rodgers ($6,900)
• Most Upside: Cameron Davis ($6,700)
• Favorite GPP Play: Matt Kuchar ($6,200)
• Fade: Same as the section above. The names that have dark red across the board will be excluded. 
• Most Likely Winner: If you can find the next triple digit winner, you are better than I am. I will say Cameron Davis for his upside, but I don't think the winner lands down here. 

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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