X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Farmers Insurance Open Golf Advice With Ludvig Aberg, Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Aaron Rai and Daniel Berger and More (2025)

Ludvig Aberg - PGA DFS Picks, Golf Betting

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Farmers Insurance. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Farmers Insurance Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

  • A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
  • The Farmers Insurance

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

  • Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
  • All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
  • In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
  • Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
  • Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
  • Units: +340.903 Units
  • All Totals Are Entering 2025
  • Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

  • Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

  • 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
  • Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends

  • We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

  • Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

 

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 5

 

Last Five Winners of the Farmers

2024 Matthieu Pavon -13
2023 Max Homa -13
2022 Luke List -15
2021 Patrick Reed -14
2020 Marc Leishman -15

 

Expected Cut-Line at the AMEX

2024 -2
2023 -2
2022 -2
2021 -1
2020 -1

 

Torrey Pines South + Torrey Pines North

We will dive deeper into the course inside of Discord this week!

 

Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance 

***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold.

Winners

OTT - 15.5%
APP - 40.5%
ATG  -11.5%
Putt - 32.5%

Top Five Performers

OTT - 14.2%
APP - 38.7%
ATG  - 15.1%
Putt - 32.5%

Top 10 Performers

OTT - 14.8%
APP - 38.9%
ATG  - 15.6%
Putt - 30.5%

Top 20 Performers

OTT - 13.8%
APP - 36.1%
ATG  - 16.6%
Putt - 33.5%

Cut Makers 

OTT - 12.7%
APP - 35.2%
ATG  - 16.1%
Putt - 36%

Miss Cut

OTT - 12.7%
APP - 35.2%
ATG  - 16.1%
Putt - 36%

If you want to make the cut, you increase your ATG + putting.

If you want to win this event, you ball-strike and stay somewhat okay with your short-game

 

Profiles That Most Closely Resemble That Of Past Winners

This doesn't mean these are the most likely players to win the title, but what it does suggest is that these players are most similar statistically to those who have won here in the past:

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat Farmers (South) PGA Average
Driving Distance 286 283
Driving Accuracy 52% 62%
GIR Percentage 62% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 52% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.73 0.54

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

Strokes Gained Total: Weighted T2G (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Hard Scoring + Long Course (10%)

 

Distance + Long Iron Prox (10%)

North Scoring (20%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Outrights
Player Price Risk Win
Sungjae Im 22 0.32 7.04

 

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at the top 50 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

A handful of outright bets for me have made this list.

 

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

 

Golfers to Land in the Top 6 of the Field for All Categories

 

 

Golfers to Land in the Top 35 of the Field for All Categories

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I didn't get all the pieces correct last week up top since I played too much Tony Finau and faded Max Greyserman, but one area where I was correct was my overexposure to Justin Thomas and the general fade of Sungjae Im in the $10,000+ range. 

That answer isn't going to come to fruition this week since my model found playability for all four names in this section, with all golfers grading inside the top four of my model for upside. 

I have no reason to initially cut any of these four names. Aberg + Im will be where my early lean goes, but this strength will be one of the reasons I am not looking to throw a ton of darts in the outright market.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

This is another very strong range.

I am done with these strong stances against Max Greyserman when the putting continues to be world-class, but I wonder what my model would have thought if he didn't get a real boost of upside in his profile when faced with the North Course. That can quickly start to help anything that is more marginal elsewhere.

My initial thought is that I am lower on Sahith Theegala than the market, and a little higher when it comes to Shane Lowry's upside than the space. However, let's see where ownership lands. I don't have a massive take when all players outside of Theegala rank in the top-15 for safety.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

There isn't a more glaring disparity in my model for "Expected Form" versus "Current Form" than Max Homa. 

We see that with Homa ranking 126th in this field over his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained Total against the second-place total that my model found for him when grading his outlook at Torrey Pines.

Homa looked impressive again at the Sentry from a ball-striking perspective, ranking first in this field when putting on Poa greens and third historically at similar courses.

I am still waiting to see how I want to round out my card between Homa, Rai, Aberg, Berger and Lowry, but fingers crossed that we get some weak matchups in the space to attack some of these edges with Homa, Rai and others.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

I noted this during the offseason, but no golfer saw a bigger increase in value from 2023 to 2024 than Erik Van Rooyen. 

It doesn't mean we have an elite golfer on our hands, but what it does suggest is that the market may still be too low on him.

 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Ludvig Aberg/ Sungjae Im
$9,000+ - Neutral to most

$8,000+ - Max Homa/Aaron Rai
$7,000+ - Daniel Berger
$6,000+ - Erik Van Rooyen

 

Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

***This still has time to change

$10,000+ - None - Tons of playability with all these names
$9,000+ - Sahith Theegala

$8,000+ -  Ben Griffin/Luke Clanton
$7,000+ - Henrik Norlander/Max McGreevy
$6,000+ - See Model

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Bailey Falter

Good To Go To Start On Sunday Against Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw

Has Successful Second Rehab Outing
Tyler Glasnow

Will Start On Sunday Against Pirates
Francisco Alvarez

Reinstated From Injured List, Starting On Friday
Merrill Kelly

To Make His Next Start On Saturday
Jeffrey Springs

Cleared To Start On Saturday Against White Sox
Ryan Jeffers

To See More Work Behind The Plate
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Friday
Taijuan Walker

Starting On Friday Against Cubs
Javier Assad

Dealing With Grade 2 Oblique Strain
Ryan Pressly

Status TBD For Friday's Game
Seiya Suzuki

Returns For Series Opener Against Phillies
Willy Adames

Knocks In Go-Ahead Run In Win
Wilyer Abreu

Cools After Hot Start
Vinnie Pasquantino

Continues Dismal Start
Will Levis

Could Be Traded Soon
Josh Naylor

Drives In Run In Loss
Bryce Young

Wanted Panthers To Take Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan To Start Travis Hunter In The Receiver Room
Garrett Crochet

Dealt Second Loss
Detroit Lions

Lions Pick Up Aidan Hutchinson's Fifth-Year Option
Jameson Williams

Lions Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Rhett Lowder

To Throw A Bullpen Session On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders
Jaxson Dart

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall
Matthew Golden

Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF