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Hello, RotoBallers, and thanks for joining me for the final regular-season slate of the NFL season. Week 18 is always an interesting one from a DFS perspective, as we must weigh every team's motivations and take note of the many starters that will see little or no action this week. While all the different playoff scenarios and news of who's in and who's out can sometimes feel a bit overwhelming, it's an environment that opens up a very real edge for DFS players who take the time to dig into the lay of the land for Week 18.
This week's DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for Week 18.
Also, be sure to check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups -- let's dominate this slate together!
Week 18 DraftKings Quarterbacks - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dak Prescott - DAL @ WAS ($8,000)
Sometimes we should just take the easy layup. It doesn't get much more obvious than Dak Prescott in Week 18, as Dallas enters the regular-season finale highly motivated to clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with a win, while also drawing a dream matchup against a horrid Washington Commanders defense.
Most passing TDs this season:
Dak Prescott - 32
Brock Purdy - 31
Jordan Love - 30
Jared Goff - 28
Baker Mayfield - 28
Tua Tagovailoa - 28 pic.twitter.com/9ZgcDLGG6D— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) January 5, 2024
Prescott has shredded bad defenses this season and lit the Commanders up for 331 passing yards and four TDs when these teams met in Week 12. There's little reason to believe that things will be any different in this one, as Washington has relinquished the NFL's most passing TDs (35) and second-most DraftKings points to the QB position this year.
Nick Mullens - MIN @ DET ($5,100)
After Week 17's failed Jaren Hall experiment, Minnesota will turn back to Nick Mullens this week. This matchup against Detroit is a low-key nice spot for the journeyman against a Lions squad that's been routinely torched through the air and has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing QBs in 2023.
Detroit did pick Mullens four times when these divisional rivals squared off two weeks ago; however, he also threw for 411 yards and two TDs while tallying 23.5 DK points in the Week 16 loss. Mullens has averaged 22.8 DK points in the two games he's played from start to finish this season.
MORE TOP QB PLAYS: Justin Fields ($7,200); Geno Smith ($6,100)
Week 18 DraftKings Running Backs - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Rachaad White - TB @ CAR ($7,600)
On a slate with lots of uncertainty, the Tampa Bay Bucs' Week 18 scenario is clear: they clinch the NFC South and a playoff berth with a win over Carolina or will be out of the playoffs altogether with a loss. Needless to say, the Bucs will be going all out in this one and I expect them to lean heavily on their workhorse, Rachaad White.
Already averaging a ridiculous 78% snap share on the season, White has carried the ball 20 or more times in four of Tampa's last five games. He'll get all the work he can handle in Week 18 against an abysmal Panthers defensive front. Carolina has been routinely destroyed on the ground in 2023 and has allowed the NFL's most rushing TDs (21) this season. White himself burned them for 106 all-purpose yards and a score on 23 touches when these two teams met in Week 13.
Pierre Strong Jr. - CLE @ CIN ($4,000)
With Cleveland locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs no matter the outcome of this game, they will be resting starters against the Bengals in Week 18. We can expect Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt to be largely/totally out of the picture, with the lead-back role falling to Pierre Strong Jr. It could be a true coming-out party for the second-year pro out of South Dakota State.
17) The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed and are likely to rest Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt.
This would leave Pierre Strong Jr. as Cleveland’s starter in a matchup against a vulnerable Bengals defense that just gave up 130 rushing yards to Isiah Pacheco on Sunday night.
— Moody (@EricNMoody) January 4, 2024
Strong has flashed his athleticism and explosiveness in limited action for the Patriots last season and the Browns in 2023. He draws a juicy opportunity to show what he can do, as the Bengals have been eliminated from playoff contention and have nothing to play for in Week 18. Even when "trying", Cincinnati has had no success against the run and has relinquished the league's third-highest yards per carry (4.60) to opposing RBs this season.
MORE TOP RB PLAYS: Zamir White ($6,000); Jordan Mason ($4,600)
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Week 18 DraftKings Wide Receivers - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
CeeDee Lamb - DAL @ WAS ($9,300)
There are smash spots and then there are SMASH SPOTS. CeeDee Lamb draws the latter in this beautiful matchup against Washington. As mentioned when discussing Dak Prescott in this article, the Commanders have been the NFL's worst unit against the pass in 2023 and they have little hope of stopping Lamb in Week 18.
CeeDee Lamb with the longest touchdown catch of the season. 92 yards! pic.twitter.com/77xTAh4HIP
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 31, 2023
The Cowboys WR1 has put forth the best season of his career in 2023. He heads into the regular-season finale fresh off a 13/227/1 explosion against Detroit last week. He's already achieved career highs in receptions (122), yards (1,651), and TDs (10) this season while standing at or near the NFL lead in all those statistical categories.
Jayden Reed - CHI @ GB ($5,700)
The Packers enter Week 18 with a crystal clear "win and in" playoff scenario and longtime divisional rival Chicago standing in their way. As the season has progressed, rookie wideout Jayden Reed has evolved into Green Bay's most potent and versatile offensive weapon. Reed is the first rookie in NFL history to have 60+ receptions, 650+ receiving yards, 8+ receiving TDs, 100+ rushing yards, and 2+ rushing TDs.
Jayden Reed is a baller pic.twitter.com/FJNKLZPcEC
— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) January 1, 2024
He was forced from last week's win over Minnesota before halftime with a chest injury, but not before dropping 89 yards and two scores on the Vikings. X-rays on his chest were negative and Reed has been a limited participant in practice this week. With Green Bay in a "must-win" situation, I look for him to suit up against the Bears.
MORE TOP WR PLAYS: Justin Jefferson ($8,500); Tyler Lockett ($5,600)
Week 18 DraftKings Tight Ends - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Evan Engram - JAX @ TEN ($5,400)
Despite the Jaguars' recent struggles to win games, tight end Evan Engram has been a reliable source of DFS production, averaging 18.6 DraftKings points per game over Jacksonville's last five.
Evan Engram rank among TEs:
127 TGTs (1st)
104 RECs (1st)
884 YDS (4th)
3 TDs (T-17th)
500 YAC (2nd)
pic.twitter.com/a27bwmp79d— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) January 4, 2024
Engram's output can be largely attributed to elite volume that's continued to grow as the Jags have lost pass catchers in bunches. He's been targeted an eye-popping 37 times since Week 14 with Christian Kirk out of the Jacksonville lineup and he leads all NFL tight ends with 127 targets this season.
Johnny Mundt - MIN @ DET ($3,000)
While Minnesota's Josh Oliver was the "starter" at tight end for the Vikings in Week 17, it looks as though Johnny Mundt will be the true statistical beneficiary of T.J. Hockenson's season-ending injury. Mundt out-snapped Oliver 41 to 24 in Minny's first game without Hockenson and converted seven targets into four catches for 39 yards and a score.
At just $3k on the Week 18 Main Slate, Mundt looks to be the Vikes' top pass-catching tight end. He draws a beatable matchup against a pass-funnel Lions defense that's relinquished the NFL's fourth-most TDs (six) to the TE position in 2023.
MORE TOP TE PLAYS: Trey McBride ($6,000); Jake Ferguson ($4,900)
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