RADIO
Third straight weekend in which we're visiting the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV before we fly all the way to Houston, TX next weekend for the next numbered event in UFC 265. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, as there is at least a tasty fight this weekend between two top-11 Middleweight contenders. This wasn't expected to happen this early, as those two were seemingly going to fight after 265, but alas.
Hall and Strickland will fight for an eventual chance at seeing their name in a title fight against Israel Adesanya or whoever is holding the gold when they get there. It's been a couple of long UFC runs for both vets, so they must do it now or they'll run out of time. The rest of the main card and undercard will feature a few vets and a lot of still-growing fighters that make for a good mixture of profiles to enjoy come Saturday night.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 33: Hall vs. Strickland on 07/31/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Uriah Hall, $6900 - vs. Sean Strickland
A couple of long-tenured fighters, these two. Hall and Strickland will headline this Saturday's card while having stepped into Octagons a combined 29 times already. They started doing it back in 2013/2014 and haven't stopped since. Even more, both of these guys have refound their mojo of late with Hall having won his last four bouts (three of them via KO) and Strickland also scoring himself four straight Ws with two KOs among them.
None of Hall and Strickland ever fought for the gold, and it's not that they are super close to achieving the feat these days with Hall ranked 8th and Strickland 11th. This will be a striking fight defined by who can land the most blows or the strongest and most damage-inflicting hits. Hall hasn't pulled off a takedown since 2015 and Strickland has had one successful attempt since the end of 2017.
Hall profiles as the most efficient striker, although he usually falls down on the overall counting stats as he attempts much fewer SS per fight--not that he needs them, though. Strickland is a pure volume fighter, though his accuracy is obviously way lower than Hall's. Hall had a rough span of fights a few years back in which he got KO'd three times in four fights, but he is back beating interesting foes of late. I'd bet on the higher-ranked Hall pulling the upset this weekend getting his fifth in a row and putting Strickland back in the L column for the first time since May 2018.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mounir Lazzez, $9200 - vs. Niklas Stolze
Before we reach the climax of UFC Vegas 33, Lazzez and Stolze will be fighting for a W that would erase the doubts around the name of whoever ends up with it. That is because both men lost their last fights, and in the case of Stolze, his lone one in the UFC.
Lazzez's loss last January was a little bit worrying given all he could do in 2:35 minutes before getting KO'd was landing two strikes... and nothing else. He came from winning in his debut, a decision W in which he looked great landing 59% of his 177 SSA and going a perfect 4-for-4 on takedown attempts. Stolze, on the other hand, also fought the full-scheduled 15 minutes of his first UFC fight but he nothing close to a valuable play given his 72 SSA (landed at a 48% rate) and 1-for-1 on TDs that day before dropping a decision to Ramazan Emeev.
This could turn into a snooze, but both men should be looking to rebounding and getting their stuff back on track. Not the largest samples, those of these two, but Lazzez's debut looked great and helped him win having a very complete performance on both striking and grappling. He's the favorite for a reason, and I can't fade him.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kyung Ho Kang, $8500 - vs. Rani Yahya
The other fight involving two quite experienced fighters other than the headlining one. Kyung and Rani will fight for the 10th and 18th time in their respective careers, although they arrive this Saturday's stage after following quite different paths. Kyung fought a couple of fights in both 2013 and 2014 but he then was out of the UFC circuit until Jan. 2018--he's fought five times since then, with his last outing coming in Dec. 2019. Yahya, on the other hand, started doing it in 2011 but he's been non-stop active until he fought for the last time this past March.
These two can bring it all to the cage. Both Kyung and Yahya have attempted at least one takedown each in their past five fights. Kyung is 9-of-18 in that span getting back to 2018 while Yahya has been a little bit wilder with a 6-of-23 for a low 26% TD rate. The striking isn't so great of neither of the two, though, with counting numbers falling below the 100 SSA virtually every time they are out there.
Kyung's disrupted fighting activity concerns me a bit. He's won three straight, yes, but that span took place in 2019 and he's been off Octagons since then. Yahya has been active in the past two years, but he's 1-1-1 in his last three fights with a submission to his name and a decision loss. There is a high probability this ends early by the way of submission more because of these two's prowess at it than them being susceptible of a sub, though--none has ever been subbed. Close call, but I'd go with Kyung if only because he looked much better the last time we saw him than Rani has of late.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ryan Benoit, $8300 - vs. Zarrukh Adashev
What can we say about these two? Nothing nice, probably. The thing is, both Adashev and Benoit have combined for eight fights under the UFC banner while winning three of them--all by Benoit, that is. That also means that Benoit has more wins in his career than Adashev has total fights inside the UFC Octagon. Is that enough to proclaim this weekend's winner already?
Adashev got KO'd in his debut in just 32 seconds. His fantasy score: 1.0 DKFP. LOL. He was able to resist for the full 15 minutes of his second fight, though Adashev ended eating his second loss in a row with a putrid 23% landing rate after going 28-of-123 on Significant Strikes. Don't get it wrong, though, as it is not that Benoit has been a worldbeater of late. He is 0-2 since 2019 and only 2-2 since 2016, having lost his last two bouts via decision.
None of these two is rostered in more than 13 percent of all DK lineups built at the time of this writing, which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. This is definitely a fight to fade because of the questions that are floating about these two. Benoit is slightly favorite but the separation in salaries is virtually non-existent and the DKPF projections for both can't be lower.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bryan Barberena, $9600 - vs. Jason Witt
Veteran against "newcomer"? Wildly random performers? Opening Saturday's main card? You bet I'll be there. Barberena has been doing it since 2014 when he knocked out his first UFC opponent in Joe Ellenberger. Witt, on the opposite side of the spectrum, fought for the first time as recently as Jun. 2020... and got KO'd himself. Witt, by the way, has still to complete a full 15-minute fight in the promo as he's gotten KO'd two times (in 48 and 16 seconds, ugh) and also won via submission his second time out.
Barberena has never tried to do beautiful things with his grappling, which he has made an afterthought of. His striking, though, is magnificent and as powerful as it gets: Barberena has the sixth-most knockdowns among UFC fighters to appear in 11 or fewer bouts and averages 0.54 KD per fight, the 31st-highest mark among fighters with 10+ appearances.
Although Witt got his lone win via submission going 2-of-3 on the takedown column, the truth is that Barberena is an experienced guy that has never been subbed in his UFC career. He's gotten KO'd twice in the past three fights, though, both of them taking place in 2019. Witt hasn't looked like a mighty force so far, so Barberena should reasonably hope to avoid getting KO'd here. The volume is totally on Barberena's side, and although fantasy points come in bunches via TDs, I'd give my two cents to the vet to get his second W in a row defeating the freshest Witt. Sky-high price, I know, but well worth it as the W is pretty much locked in.
