RADIO
Yes, there was a change of venues sandwiched between a couple of trips inside the UFC Apex, but that was not enough. This weekend, though, we're moving away from Las Vegas, NV altogether to land in Elmont, NY, where the UFC is staging what they've marketed as UFC Long Island--before we go back to London, England, and the O2 Arena! This was a much-needed refreshment, it must be said, after a couple of UFC Vegas nights and a very chalky UFC 276 just a couple of weeks ago.
The main event of the evening will pit a couple of Featherweight contenders--Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez--against each other, with Ortega having lost his lone chance at the title in his most recent fight and Rodriguez also entering the Octagon having lost his latest bout. As is always the case in the world of MMA, a bunch of early-scheduled fights was lost on our way to this weekend, but that meant others popped up including Miesha Tate's third fight (first this calendar year) since coming back from an extended hiatus, or Amanda Lemos trying to bounce back from her recent loss to Jessica Andrade after putting together five consecutive Ws prior to that. All things considered, this is not too bad for a second-tier card.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Long Island: Ortega vs. Rodriguez on 07/16/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brian Ortega, $8500 - vs. Yair Rodriguez
It can definitely be said that none of these two has been quite active and doing it inside Octagos of late. Ortega is just 1-1 in his two fights since he fought (and lost to) Max Holloway all the way back in Dec. 2018, and Rodriguez has fought all of one time (a loss) since Oct. 2019 dropping his last fight to Max Holloway (see the pattern?). This weekend we'll get to enjoy these two in the "Fight of the Max Losers", I guess, as Ortega tries to bounce back to his early-career winning ways (he put together six straight victories all of them via KO/Sub prior to his loss to Holloway) and Yair looks into rebounding from his late-2021 loss, his first since he dropped his first bout ever to Frankie Edgar in May 2017.
These are still young and very capable of bringing the fire. While Yair started his career (2014-16 span) chasing opponents and trying to land takedowns like a madman pulling off the feat at a high clip, he's not that fighter anymore. He's just 1-of-12 from 2017 on and focusing much more on striking rather than grappling. Ortega has done pretty much the opposite, going from a no-takedowns fighter to becoming a hella dangerous and active one: he's 7-of-26 in his past three fights alone... while he's also been able to amp up his striking averages and total numbers. Yair's volume is definitely enviable and the landing rates are higher than Ortega's, but the latter is not that separated from him on a per-minute basis while coming with the additional benefit of pulling off takedowns and the bonus FP those award. Give me Ortega in a full-length 15-minute fight going to a decision.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Lemos, $9400 - vs. Michelle Waterson
While Lemos and Waterson are very close in age, they're quite separated in terms of where their respective careers seem to be headed. Although they started their UFC runs in a seven-month span, Waterson's peak arrived when she strung three consecutive victories only to drop three of her next four including her last one, and defeating only Angela Hill since Mar. 2019. Lemos, on the other hand, is coming off her lone loss since Jul. 2017 (debut loss) after dropping her last fight to Jessica Andrade via first-round submission. This definitely looks like one of the last building blocks in Lemos' path to a title challenge and a fight-for-your-life bout for Waterson as she tries to salvage the last days of her career.
Waterson has always been great at chasing takedowns and definitely not bad at landing them given the volume. She averages 4.9 TD per fight in the UFC landing 1.2 of those, so it's not bad. Waterson even went for 18 (!!!) TDs a couple of fights ago when she absolutely dominated Angela Hill to get her highest-ever DKFP score at 105 fantasy points. The striking volume was never superb, but that has seemingly changed of late with Waterson launching 324 and 205 SSA in her past two fights. Lemos, on the other hand, is nearly perfect in takedowns although she's boasting a low-volume overall 4-of-7 tally. Not that we care, though, as she's more of a finisher with two KO victories and one submission to her name in her past six fights. She's reached the final buzzer just twice in her career compared to Waterson's eight-straight such outcomes (out of 10 total fights). Lemos puts on lower striking volume but she's straight deadly when at it. Waterson is on the downslope but somehow can keep fights going until the judges' decision. Combine both things and you have a very nice play in Lemos trying to get another W on her way to the belt.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Muslim Salikhov, $8600 - vs. Li Jingliang
Very similar profiles, those of Jingliang and Salikhov. It is true that the former has had it a little bit rougher of late (1-1 in the past two calendar years and 1-2 since the end of 2019) compared to Muslim's results of five straight victories from Apr. 2018 to Jun. 2021) but other than the final outcomes, the career-wise statistics have always been pretty much on par for both. Li Jingliang, though, comes with a very huge warning attached to him having to do with how reliant on his KO prowess he's become recently, rendering him null in any/all other facets of the game. All last three victories Jingliang got in his bag came via KO, the latest in the first round after a 21-of-50 SSL/SSA outing. He's at least kept up his takedowns (not in the last two, though, when he attempted none at all) going 5-of-8 in his last five bouts back to late 2018).
Salikhov has been on the total opposite side of the spectrum, dragging his fights (the last three) to the full 15-minute duration recently getting to nice-enough DKFP scores but definitely nothing mindblowing or worth chasing in any sort of crazy way by fantasy GMs. Sure, the takedowns have been nice with an overall tally of 5-of-11 in the past three fights, and so has been the striking volume and landing rate with an average of 7.5 SSA/min and 3.7 SSL/min. I don't really know who of these two I would trust more and feel more comfortable using in my fantasy endeavors, not going to lie. Li comes with the monster upside of the potential KO, which he's proven he's definitely capable of recently. Salikhov seems to have the safer floor, though a very limited ceiling (he has two KOs one each in 2018 and 2019, mind you) as he's seemingly settling for distance-fighting and easy-W securing these days. I'd pick Muslim, but on top of that I'd say that depending on your approach to roster-building this weekend you could use any of the two (Jinglian if you need/want a boom/bust play, Muslim if you feel like raising your DKFP floor).
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Shane Burgos, $9000 - vs. Charles Jourdain
It sucked to watch Burgos getting rocked by Edson Barboza and lose to Josh Emmet prior to that because Shane is an all-timer hiding in plain sight. If you don't believe me, let me tell you that he ranks in the 95th (!) percentile of all UFC fighters ever (yes, since UFC 1 back in the 1990s) in DKFP per fight, he's just kicking off his 30s, and although he suffered those two defeats recently he could still rebound nicely because his track record is sublime. Forget about takedowns and grappling when it comes to Burgos (and Jourdain, by extension), but expect a monster volume of strikes both attempted and landed.
Jourdain comes with the same fighting profile--all striking, no grappling--as that of Burgos, but his overall rank in the history of the sport isn't as high as Burgos'. That said, though, CJ is still a machine. He's coming off two victories including a first-round submission in which all he did was land 4-of-7 SSA. Other than that, he usually attempts 11+ SSA per minute landing around half of those. Those numbers are bonkers and translate to slightly above 160 SSA per fight. Burgos himself is at an even higher average of 16.1 SSA/min and 8.9 SSL/min since the start of 2019, which is simply unheard of and unthinkable to see other UFC fighters doing. Jourdain comes with the more active and better resume of late, but Burgos is just too good not to bounce back (he won his last fight already last November, mind you) and contend for the title not long from now.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Miesha Tate, $8800 - vs. Lauren Murphy
As bad as it might sound, Lauren Murphy has done something that Miesha Tate has yet to accomplish: losing to reigning (and probably unstoppable) champ Valentina Shevchenko. That's the fight Murphy is coming off this weekend as she enters the Octagon to face the recently-returned Tate, who has two fights in the past 12 months ending in a KO victory against Marion Reneau and then a decision loss to Ketlen Vieira. Tate has looked phenomenal since her comeback from a five-year (!) UFC hiatus. Tate has been good to score 92.5 and 66 DKFP in those two fights, thus registering her career-high and a good-for-a-loss tally in her most recent fight.
Murphy, though, had an impossibly great rebound from her early career days after going 1-4 from 2014 to 2018 only to then proceed to win five straight fights on her way to the title fight against Shevchenko last September. It's been a totally unpredictable arc with Murphy racking up numbers (and Ws, obviously) on all fronts. She's attempting 9+ SSA/min since started that victorious back in 2019 while landing 3+ SSL/min. The percentages are putrid, I know, but the volume is more than high to compensate for them. Oh, and she's also getting herself some takedowns here and there (4-of-10 in her last four fights) to bulk up his DKFP tallies. All things considered, and although some won't agree with my decision, I'm going with Tate this weekend. Murphy has been great lately but she wasn't that type of fighter for half of her career while Tate actually was. Tate's comeback has been fantastic, she's pulling off takedowns at career-high rates and volume, and his strikes are bulky and landing. Give me Miesha.
