RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC London: Volkov vs. Aspinall on 03/19/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC is back in England, UK, for the first time in... three years! Damn! The last time the promo was about to visit rainy England was expected to be in March 2020, though the then-ongoing COVID pandemic trashed the plans and canned the UFC FN: Woodley vs. Edwards even that were excited to watch unfold. That's why English fans have not had an event since all the way back in 2019!
Waiting is over. COVID is (almost) an afterthought, FN 204 will pit Volkov vs. Aspinall, and it will go down in London and the O2 Arena for the first time in years (literally!). As already said, those two HW will put the cherry on top at the end of a night that will feature no belts put on the line but a nicely packed set of fights with the likes of Dan Hooker, Arnold Allen, Rodrigo Vargas, and England's very own Paddy Pimblett. Not bad for an international affair.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC London: Volkov vs. Aspinall on 03/19/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tom Aspinall, $8300 - vs. Alexander Volkov
Funnily enough, Aspinall is just walking the walk Volkov covered a few years ago when he also started his UFC tenure boasting a 4-0 record. That said, Aspinall has looked even better than Volkov did back in that 2016-18 span, though. Aspinall's 4-0 has come his way by knocking out three opponents inside the first round (actually, he's never gone past the 2:30 mark) and the other W he got was thanks to a submission just one minute into the second round against uber-veteran Andrei Arlovski. Volkov, just in case, got that 4-0 by the way of two KOs and two decisions.
Anyway, and although Alexander Volkov is a little shakier these days (3-2 alternating Ws and Ls since the start of 2019), he still has it in him. Volkov hasn't got KO'd since Oct. 2018 while inflicting a KO himself as recently as Oct. 2020 against Walt Harris. He's gone to decision in his last two fights, a pair of 25- and 15-minute affairs. Volkov is not throwing many SSA now around 9 per minute) but lands north of 50% while never using takedowns anymore. That latter detail also applies to Aspinall, who relies on striking at greater volume and landing rates without caring that much about takedowns (he's 2-for-2 career-wise, though). Anything can happen in HW bouts, but here's betting on Aspinall getting that 5-0 with a sound KO.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paddy Pimblett, $9400 vs. Kazula Vargas
Sophomore vs. Junior. Native vs. Latin. Name it what you want. Pimblett will fight at home (almost, as he's from England but born in Liverpool) this weekend while Kazula will be arriving all the way from Mexico City. None of these two has made it to the Octagon four times yet, and even with Vargas' three trips there he's only won once while currently boasting a silly 1-2 record that includes a DQ. Yikes. Anyway, even getting that late win his last time out, Vargas might have a rough time this weekend against Mighty Pimblett.
Vargas' W last April came on a day in which all he did was reach 83 DKFP thanks to a good-not-great 96-of-176 SS outing with one reversal and missing on the lone takedown he attempted. Pimblett, on the other hand, got his debut victory knocking his opponent out in just 4:25 minutes of fighting time finishing 47-of-81 in SSL throwing 18.3 (!!!) per minute and landing more than 10 while at it. We have seen so little from these two in the UFC but given what he did in his debut and that he's fighting home this weekend, I'm sorry but I'm all into picking Paddy P as my winner come Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Arnold Allen, $8000 - vs. Dan Hooker
Will Arnold Allen lose again? I don't know, I don't know... Allen hasn't met defeat in the UFC since he started doing it for Dana in 2015. Since then, he's cooked himself a solid 8-0 record that has also seen him fight more often lately than he did to kick his career off. Allen has four bouts in the past three full calendar years, and he's also the only man alive to defeat Sodiq Yusuff in the UFC (April 2021, Allen's last fight).
Hooker is way older, and also more experienced. Five years the veteran of Allen, Hooker is 2-3 since the start of 2020, much more active than Allen overall, and a positive 4-3 since July 2019. None of Hooker nor Allen have finished an opponent since at least three years ago, and this smells like decision or early-loss for Hooker if you ask me. Hooker has been a little bit up and down in terms of relying on takedowns, though it's become for of a strategy for him of late (8-of-21 from 2020 on). Allen is a perfect-record fighter but a fantasy headache because he doesn't go for high-volume strikes nor tons of takedowns. The 8-0 is beautiful, and might even read 9-0 by Sunday, but give me Hooker because he has a 100-DKFP ceiling even when losing.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sergei Pavlovich, $9000 - vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Lord, the contrast. Shamil is fighting this weekend while already in his 40s and carrying a couple of Ls attached to his name in his last two fights (one in Sep. 2021, the prior one in Sep. 2019). Sergei, on the other hand, has only done it twice and never since Oct. 2019 but he got to his 2-0 record with back-to-back KOs in fewer than 2:12 minutes each. That's scary as hell, but the obvious "is he rusty?" questions will pop no matter what.
Shamil throws fewer strikes--though they are freaking solid, must say--than Pavlovich, though the vet at least teases some takedown prowess here and there (hasn't landed one in three and a half years, though). Pavlovich has only needed 37 landed SS to get his two KOs, and his volume pro-rated to a per-60 seconds basis is ridiculously high at 20 SSA landing 60% of them. Again, everything can happen in such a small space containing a couple of heavyweight men, but I'd bank on the younger Sergei for the weekend.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Nikita Krylov, $8700 - vs. Paul Craig
Quite opposite records, those of these two of late. Krylov is boasting a 2-3 tally since Sep. 2018 while Craig has gone 6-2-1 in that same span. One thing is clear from the get-go: Craig's pace of bookings is twice that of Krylov, which must go for something. Craig is, also, 3-0 since Jul. 2020 and in fact he hasn't dropped a fight since Jun. 2019 when he lost to Alonzo Menifield. When he loses, though, he losses big with three KOs against him and one submission in his four defeats.
Krylov hasn't won two in a row since 2016 and is coming off a loss the last time we watched him (Feb. 2021). He's a takedown artist (8-of-21 in the past five calendar years) and actively tries to bring the fight down to the mat. Craig was 4-8 on landed takedowns the last time he attempted more than one, but other than that kind-of-outlier he hasn't landed more than one TD since Dec. 2018. He can do it on grappling, though, as his submission of Gadzhimurad Antigulor less than two years ago to kick off his current 3-0 run shows. With Krylov on a clear downward trajectory and Craig having reborn himself of late, it's the latter for me this weekend with the chance at a finish (he's always won his fights early never reaching the judges' decision) and a fantasy bounty.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gunnar Nelson, $9200 - vs. Takashi Sato
Ole Gunnar is Manchester United's manager. Gunnar Nelson is UFC's longest-tenured fighter. That's actually a bad pun and an even worse stretch of reality. But there is some truth to it as Nelson debuted all the way back in 2012 (!) and has fought 13 times inside an Octagon already. The problem for Nelson, though, is that his best days seemed to be over by the end of 2014 (4-0 by then) or maybe just the start of 2017 at most (7-2 by March of that year). Since Jul. 2017 Gunnar Nelson has accrued a 1-3 record with one W by submission and one defeat by KO. Most worrying of all: Nelson has not fought since Sep. 2019, so he better embrace the rust.
Sato has fought four times in the past three years, and three in the span between Nelson's last fight and this weekend, and he's got pretty weird results to date. Sato is 2-2, with his two victories arriving in no more than 6:20 minutes of fighting time (both KOs, including a 48-second one!) and his two defeats via submission (including one in his last fight, back on Nov. 2020). Nelson has the clear edge in terms of taking foes down and chasing takedowns/grappling bouts. Sato is clearly the higher-volume fighter, but that's only pro-rating his SSL/SSA to a per-60 second basis as he's logged 10+ minutes in a single fight just once. The contrast of styles is clear, and I'd side with Nelson here just because rust+grappling sounds better to me. If you can, don't hesitate and just fade these two fools.
