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Glad to have this fighting thing back! Yay! Only, wait a minute. Weren't we supposed to watch Cory Sandhagen and T.J. Dillashaw go at it? Wasn't this supposed to be UFC Vegas 26: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw in a battle of former champs? Welp. Dillashaw was forced out after getting headbutted in training (LOL) so a couple of W Flyweights had to step up and make for the main event. That's the good thing about the UFC. There is no shortage of talent around.
Those two main eventers will be Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez. The latter is a 13-1-2 fighter, while the former comes as a former Invicta FC champ. Both are top-10 ranked Strawweight fighters, which we should be very happy with for a headliner. Before we get there, though, we'll get to watch a living legend: Donald Cerrone (taking on Alex Morono) in which will be his 54th (!!!) MMA fight. Insane durability, that of Cowboy. Bring the APEX fireworks!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 26: Rodriguez vs. Waterson on 05/08/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Michelle Waterson, $7000 - vs. Marina Rodriguez
Quite a weird fight, this one. Marina Rodriguez enters this weekend with a UFC record reading 3-1-2, which is a little bit confounding as it is not often that you find draws in fight log histories, even less as the result of a debuting fight. Anyway. Rodriguez lost her lone 2020 fight to Carla Esparza, and prior to that went 2-1 in 2019 but she drew a match against Cynthia Calvillo to close that year. Not the greatest run of results for her, that's what I mean.
Waterson, on the other hand, got things right in her last outing against Angela Hill with a decision W in which she absolutely dominated with 324 SS attempted and 128 landed. Most incredibly, she only landed one takedown but went for 18 (!!!) on the night. That's insane, folks.
These two have very similar numbers when it comes to striking volume/landing rates, but there is a clear edge on the ground going Waterson's way. That alone should hand her the win and the highest FP-tally as this projects to be a full five-round fight going to decision. Give me Waterson all day.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Morono, $7800 - vs. Donald Cerrone
I am not even 30 years old but I am not entirely sure if Cerrone's UFC career will outlive me. Seriously. This guy stepped inside an Octagon for the first time in 2011, and in the 10 years since then, he's fought a freakish 36 times (!!!). That's an insane volume of fighting, with an average of 3.5+ fights per year. And it's not that he fought most of those in his early years, no sir. Cerrone fought four times in 2019 and three last year. Insane. He's 0-4-1 in his last five, though, and he's more of a walking legend having fun out there than a risky fighter these days.
Morono, while not a freshman, is a newbie compared to Cerrone. Alex Morono is fighting for the sixth time since the start of 2019 this weekend, and he's 3-2 in that span. He lost his last one to Anthony Pettis in a rather ridiculous performance (just 78 SSA, 31 SSL), but he's been great on the takedown side of fighting going 4-of-8 in the past two fights.
As much as it hurts to type it and think about it, Cerrone is past being washed-up. Morono is not like Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, and Conor McGregor, sure, but he's no slouch either. My heart is saying Cowboy, my brain is telling me to bet on Morono.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Geoff Neal, $9000 - vs. Neil Magny
Geoff Neal was absolutely insane prior to the 2020 year. After debuting with an impossible 5-0 run between Feb. 2018 and Dec. 2019, Neal was out of the Octagon for a full year getting back inside of it on Dec. 2020 and dropping a decision against Stephen Thompson. Just one fight (and a loss) in the past 17 months isn't going to help Neal's projections, but the truth is that before losing that one he was a monster with three KOs and one submission to his name, only reaching the third round once.
Magny, on the other hand, comes with vast experience and about to fight for the 25th time under the UFC banner. Magny has never got a chance at the belt, and he was also off any Octagon from Nov. 2018 to Mar. 2020, but he came back that latter month and is 3-1 since then with four fights in the past 14 months and one already this year, back in late January (his lone loss since 2020).
Neal has quite some power inside of him, while Magny's KO prowess is lower these days than it was a few years back. Magny, on the other hand, has the edge on takedowns with 9-of-19 successful ones in his past four fights. It's been four decisions in a row for Magny, and two KOs for Neal in his last two wins. This is a close one, but I'd lean Neal getting back to the W column and reaching a sound 6-1 to kick off his 2021 fighting season.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marcos Rogerio de Lima, $9100 - vs. Maurice Greene
Rogerio de Lima can't catch a (long) break. If I tell you that he's 5-5 in the UFC, you might that's not bad. If I tell you his fight log reads W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L, then things start to look weird, if not even bad. Well, that's Marcos for you: a walking rollercoaster. And it is not that his fights go the distance or whatever. Far from it. It's pretty much demolish or get rocked with no middle ground. He only fought a 15-minute bout, with all of the other nine getting called before reaching the third round.
Mo Greene has fought just six times, three in 2019 and three more in 2020. He's an even 3-3 but 1-2 in the last year. Same as Marcos, he barely knows what going the distance means, as he has only done so in his debut and has since got fights called early every single time out there. He has won on all KO, sub, and decisions, but he's got rocked two times and subbed once.
Neither of these two is going for the takedown, that's all I know. It's about punching each other's head off before the other one does. And well, given Mo dropped one to Greg Hardy via KO last October, and that Rogerio de Lima comes off a loss and alternates W&Ls, you know what's about to happen after he lost his last one. Marcos gets the KO W and keeps up the ridiculous W-L pattern.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Ribas, $8800 - vs. Angela Hill
Amanda Ribas could hardly have done better in her first four UFC fights. Four wins, two submissions, two decisions. She's done it both on strikes (near 50% land rate on a 100+ SSA per fight) and on the ground (6-of-11 successful TDs, at least one every time out). Not really a lot to say about Ribas, who has been plain great so far.
Angela Hill, on the other hand, had a rough start to her career. She went 1-6 from 2015 to June 2019 but then started to get things right and put up a 4-1 record in her next five bouts leading up to May 2020. Then and there she dropped two in a row, but Hill went back to the W column in her last fight, only a couple of months ago against Ashley Yoder.
As much as Hill has the experience, Ribas has the winning track record and comes in hot as hell. She's as complete as they get, can match Hill's high volume of striking, and is better at taking foes down. Chalk play, this one, but well worth it.
