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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 on 01/23/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
It's been a month since the last "numbered" UFC event, UFC 256, which took place all the way back on Dec. 12th, 2020. Back then, the action took place in Las Vegas, NV, and it saw Figueiredo took on Moreno for the Flyweight Championship, which the former retained after a decision win over the latter. That wasn't a bad headliner, but considering what's coming this Saturday it pales in comparison.
Why? Well, we have no less than Conor McGregor back. Whether you like him or not, it can't be argued that he boosted the UFC reach more than a lot during his heyday a few years back, putting the promotion and the MMA as a whole at the top of the fastest-growing sports in the world. After a one-year hiatus and with just one bout in virtually the past three years, McGregor will take on Poirier re-upping a rivalry that had its first chapter in 2014 (!!!). There are no belt-implications here, but this could very well put us on our way to a forever-anticipated McGregor vs. Khabib down the road.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 on 01/23/21. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Conor McGregor, $9100 - vs. Dustin Poirier
Let's be honest for a minute here. To say that this is McG vs. DP 2 is not a lie, but it is not that this is a budding rivalry, something that has stayed hot for the past few weeks following a recent fight, or anything of the like. McGregor and Poirier fought each other all the way back in 2014 when the former was far from a UFC standout and flagship, and the latter was still on the building stages of his UFC career.
Things have changed a lot since those days. McGregor is fighting for the first time since he faced Donald Cerrone more than a year ago and spent all of 40 seconds inside the Octagon. Poirier defeated Hooker in his last fight, getting closer to a shot at Khabib's vacated belt.
While Poirier has been the more active of these two as of late, we all know who McGregor is and how he came back from a loss to Khabib--beating Cerrone in under a minute. Call me a romantic, but I have to be on Conor's side here. He demolished Poirier in 2014, and that doesn't mean much today. But I don't see any possible way in which McGregor lets this one slip with the potential chance of making Khabib unretire for a rematch or a shot at the gold on the horizon.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dan Hooker, $8500 - vs. Michael Chandler
Hooker comes from losing his last fight against the main-eventer of UFC 257, Dustin Poirier. That happened last June when he dropped a decision in which he couldn't have done much more than what he really did. Hooker looked great, connected on 61%+ of his 253 SS attempts, and also took down Poirier four of nine times he tried to. Can't get much better.
Chandler, on the other hand, is an absolute unknown commodity in the UFC promotion. He just signed a contract last September and this will be his debut inside an Octagon. No joke, because he will be facing the no. 6 FW contender in the UFC. Chandler is a finisher, having 16 early-stoppage wins (9 KOs, 7 subs) in his 26 matches and a 21-5 overall record as a pro.
Before his loss to Poirier, Hooker had three consecutive wins to his name, all of them happening from July 2019 on. That bodes well for Hooker, who also fought nicely against Dustin, but Chandler could be a serious menace in this one and the sneaky winner of the night. It's been hard to knock Hooker out cold, but I'm betting on Chandler to snatch the W and as a winning underdog and value play this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jessica Eye, $7800 - vs. Joanne Calderwood
Not the most appealing of fights if we go by strict records, but a close one on paper. Jessica Eye got her shot at the belt not long ago facing Valentina Shevchenko in June 2019 and obviously ending on the losing side of things. Not surprising, considering her rival on the night... She rebounded with a W against Araujo, but Cynthia Calvillo sent her back to the L column six months ago in a decision loss in which Jessica couldn't connect a strike to save her life.
Calderwood, same as Eye, has alternated Ws and Ls in her last four fights and comes from a loss against Jennifer Maia this past August when she was submitted inside the first round. Ugh. Calderwood has a more rounded game, using both striking and grappling to find her way toward victory, although it is not that she has excelled lately with just a 2-2 record since the start of 2019.
All things considered, Calderwood should get away with the win on this one. Both fighters have very similar striking prowess, but Calderwood has landed at least one takedown in her last four bouts and 2+ in two of them, always above 33% in success rate. Calderwood has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling than her foe in fantasy contests.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Frevola, $7400 - vs. Ottman Azaitar
Get excited, folks, because there could be fireworks just two fights into UFC 257. After the opener, four-fight Frevola and two-fight Azaitar will meet inside the octagon to see who can get snatch the third win in their respective UFC-careers. Frevola dropped his first fight via KO, then went on to draw one with Lando Vannata, but after that, he got his two Ws in 2019 both via decision.
Ottman Azaitar, aka September's Mauler, debuted in Sept. 2019 with a 3:33 KO of Teemu Packalen and came back exactly a year later in Sept. 2020 to finish Khama Worthy in 1:33 with another KO. All he's done in the UFC is murdering foes, and all he's needed has been 43 strikes landed. The problem with such a dominant start to his UFC tenure, obviously, is that his floor in fantasy contests so far is ground-level, as we have yet to see him for more than three minutes inside the Octagon and he's only put on monster FP tallies because of the early-stoppage bonuses.
Frevola has a resounding ground game. He has attempted 6+ TDs in all of his last three fights, and a total of 26 in that span landing 10 of them. Those are always good fantasy points. He was KO'd in his debut, but has looked good since with his 2-0-1 record. Not a lot to say about Azaitar. He's a risky play because he's been an absolute boom/bust play with his two KOs. If he fails at that, then what? Err on the side of caution and roster Frevola if any one of those two at all.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Ribas, $9200 - vs. Marina Rodriguez
Since debuting back in August 2018, Rodriguez has been more than a bouncy fighter. She's gone to the judges' scorecards in all five of her fights getting a 2-1-2 record (yes, two draws...) in those bouts. She's got striking prowess, but she doesn't finish her opponents and doesn't have much of a ground game with just one successful takedown in 4 total attempts.
Ribas has subbed two of his four rivals in the UFC since debuting in June 2019 and currently boasts a perfect 4-0 record. She can do it all, landing 45% of his attempted SS and 67% of all strikes she's thrown, while she also has pulled off 6 TDs of the 11 she's attempted (68% success rate).
This should be an easy win for Ribas, who has made it both on long fights (her two decision wins) and also on short ones (her subs of Whitmire and lately Paige VanZant).
