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If you know something about UFC's head honcho Dana White, it is that he's a stubborn man. Back when COVID hit for the first time, he was determined to keep the promotion going, even getting to claim that he had secured an island to hold some fights. It didn't come to happen, but at least White and the UFC were able to schedule some events in the company's APEX Center in Las Vegas. Not bad, considering the times we're navigating.
Now we're in July, and after having gone through nine empty-arena events from Brazil to Jacksonville to Las Vegas, it is time to fly to Fight Island. Yes, it's happening. It's a little bit different than what we had dreamed of (it's Yas Island, just in case), but what it brings is monstrous fighters slated to face each other for multiple golden belts. Already past the true main event of the month (Usman vs. Masvidal), it's time to focus on the second one, this time a Fight Night pitting Calvin Kattar (no. 6) against Dan Ige (no. 10) in a main card that will be co-headlined by Tim Elliott (no. 12) facing Ryan Benoit at flyweight.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DrafKings for UFC ESPN+ 30: Kattar vs. Ige on 7/15/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dan Ige, $7,100 - vs. Calvin Kattar, $9,100
It wasn't long ago that both Kattar and Ige made their debuts inside the Octagon, with the former having his first bout just three years ago. Both men have seven fights in their UFC careers and although they're 5-2 and 6-1 respectively, Ige is the one carrying a six-fight winning streak since June 2018. Kattar, on the other hand, has dropped two of his last five with his most recent loss coming this past November. He's 1-1 since then having KO'd Jeremy Stephens in his last bout.
These two are very similar on the hitting side of the game. They average over 12 significant strikes per minute but Ige clearly edges Kattar in terms of accuracy, as Ige lands 8.1 per 60 seconds (66.4%) compared to Kattar's 5.6 (43.9%). Kattar is also the one who absorbs the most SS per minute at 6.1 compared to Ige's 2.9. The clearest difference in styles comes down to the grappling. While Ige has landed at least one takedown in all of his fights (he averages 4.3 per fight and lands 1.3 of them), Kattar has only attempted four takedowns in all of his seven fights combined, landing none.
Kattar comes as the favorite to defeat Ige here, and he clearly brings some upside for an early stoppage win (his last four wins came via KO). The problem is that he's also lost two fights via decision inside the past two years, and Ige looks like a fit to get the points to win if this goes the distance, and he's never been knocked out in his UFC career. Given the price difference, I have to go with the underdog Ige here as Kattar is overly KO-dependent to score big fantasy points.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tim Elliott, $8,500 - vs. Ryan Benoit
You know the quality of the card has dropped a bit when the co-main event features two fighters that are 3-2 (Benoit) and 3-8 (Elliott) in their UFC careers. Not only that, but both of them are entering the Octagon mid-week while having dropped their last fight (in the case of Elliott it's even worse, as he's riding a three-fight losing streak going back to October 2019).
It's a very similar tale that of these two. Benoit fought for the first time since 2017 this past December and lost in a decision. Elliott has been constant since October 2019 (three fights since then) but he missed two years from late-2017 to late-2019. In terms of their styles, Elliotts brings a more rounded game to the table and should be favored here (as he actually is). Elliott's significant strikes come at a slightly lower rate than Benoit's, but he lands them more often (53.5% to Benoit's 50.9%).
With striking being so balanced, takedowns are a completely different story. Elliott attempts more than one per minute and lands 30% of his tries; Benoit barely looks to take his foes to the mat, having a virtual null ground game. Even worse, Benoit is often the target of his rivals takedown attempts getting tried more than 0.55 times per minute and allowing almost 25% of his rivals' TD attempts to succeed. Don't let Elliott's recent 0-3 record scare you off him. He's going to win this one (most probably early and by submission) getting back to the W column so he's a clear target to put in your lineup.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cody Stamann, $7,800 - vs. Jimmie Rivera
First of all, I have to introduce you properly to Rivera's last run of fights starting in 2018. While the vet is 1-3 since then, you have to check the names that come attached to those losses: Marlon Moraes, Aljamain Sterling, and Petr Yan. That's an insane murderers' row. In the meantime, the lone win of Rivera came against John Dodson (not bad).
Stamann, on the flip side of the coin, has won three since 2018 only losing to true-contender Aljamain Sterling and getting to a draw-decision versus Song Yadong in his second-to-last bout. The striking of both Rivera and Stamann is pretty close in terms of volume, with near 9 SS per 60 seconds each and Stamman edging Rivera on the landing rate 48.5% to 35.6%, which could prove key on this fight.
That is because Stamann is the clear menace when it comes to takedowns in both attempts and landing ratio. Stamann attempts almost 0.5 per minute (6.5 per fight) and usually lands a few (3.1 per fight). Compared to Rivera paltry outcome there (no successful TDs since 2018 on just six attempts combined), I' going to bet on the underdog Stamann here to get the W and put Rivera in serious trouble record-wise.
DraftKings MMA Women Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Molly McCann, $8,200 - vs. Taila Santos
It is just impossible for me to pick any other fighter than McCann here. I mean, sure, Taila Santos is almost unknown UFC-goods these days as she's only logged one fight in the promotion (a loss in her debut back in February 2019) but she came with a 15-0 record prior to that, but she still has to get the grip of the Octagon. McCann has won her last three bouts though and is 3-1 since her 2018 debut.
That is good and all, but you seriously need to check the numbers to see how dominant McCann has actually been. In her three wins (all via decision) McCann has broken the 100-DKFP barrier, always averaging at least 6.8 DKFP/Min. She's landed 50% or more of her SS each and every time while attempting an incredible 197+, and it's not that she lacks on the mat: McCann averages nine TDs per contest and lands around three of them per fight. Considering she's not overly expensive, McCann truly profiles as one of the best fantasy options from Wednesday's card.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Abdul Razak Alhassan, $9,200 - vs. Mounir Lazzez
Alhassan is a freak of nature. He's also expensive as hell, although it makes all of the sense: Alhassan is 4-1 in his UFC career, counts his victories by KOs, and in those four wins he's spent just under 10 minutes combined inside the Octagon. That's ridiculous, but it is what happens when you finish your opponents inside the first round of your fights, which is Alhassan's record.
I would often doubt this type of fighter because they're super dependent on early-stoppage bonus to become viable fantasy picks, but Alhassan is a welterweight (not a heavyweight, which fits the profile more) and he just seems unstoppable and a true KO-type fighter every time he steps inside the octagon. Mounir Lazzez will be making his UFC debut here, and although he's also won nine out of ten fights before getting to a decision he still has to prove himself in the promotion. If you're short of money to fill your lineup, Lazzez should be a good flier going against the grain. If you have room, though, make Alhassan your booming pick.
