RADIO
The Apex will stay hot for the second week in a row, as the UFC is getting back to its home arena of choice in Las Vegas. This will mark the 30th Vegas event, and it is the last one before we get to July and into a two-week hiatus as we wait for the upcoming UFC 264 aka McGregor's comeback aka Poirer vs. McG III. But let's leave that on hold until we get past this weekend, who comes packed with bulked-up folks going against each other.
That's because the top-two fights of the main card include a couple of heavyweight bouts featuring former Bellator HW World Champion Alexander Volkov, no. 3 contender Cyril Gane, Tanner Boser, and Ovince St. Preux. On the total opposite side of the weight scale, two bantams and two feathers will face off, while a welterweight bout will round up the top five fights of the evening.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs. Volkov on 06/26/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ciryl Gane, $8700 - vs. Alexander Volkov
Has there been a better run in the UFC since Gane's debut back in August of 2019? Gane has stepped into the Octagon five times and he only knows how to count his fights by Wins. That's true, and he's also been rather dominant with three early-stoppage Ws in those five bouts (one KO, two subs). Gane can do it all and that 5-0 streak has him ranked as the no. 3 heavyweight contender and getting closer and closer to a shot at the title.
Volkov, while not perfect and better in his earlier days in the UFC, is still a 6-2 fighter with a 2-1 positive record since Nov. 2019. The only fight he dropped was to Curtis Blaydes back a year ago, and it took Blaydes a full 25-minute outing to edge him by decision. Four of the last six fights involving Volkov ended early, with three KOs in his favor and one against (though it came with just 11 seconds to the final buzzer).
Gane has been so absolutely incredible that he is rightfully the favorite to get the W here. Volkov is a menace, and does it both on striking (with volume) and takedowns and grappling, but I just can't pass on Gane. Chalky play, but a very reasonable one to go with. Gane has great striking averages, and the last time we saw him fight he went for a bonkers 14 TDs against Rozenstruik. He only pulled off a couple, but his activity was insane.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ovince St. Preux, $7900 - vs. Tanner Boser
Quite a contrasting fight, this one. OSP is fighting for the 23rd time in his UFC career, one that started all the way back in April of 2013. Since that month, OSP reached the highest of heights fighting for the belt against Jon Jones in 2016, but that was it for Ovince's prime. He lost to Jones, then dropped two more, and he's just 4-3 since the start of 2018 splitting 2020 in a 1-1 record. Good for him, he comes off a KO-win against Alonzo Menifield taking place last August.
Boser's fight log looks like a condensed version of St. Preux's. He's only been out there five times, but he won three of his first four and then went on to lose twice in November of 2020 and his lone fight of 2021 just a few weeks ago. Losing that last one to Ilir Latifi is somehow excusable, but doing so against 65-year-old Andrei Arlovski wasn't a great look.
The fact that Boser is still "starting" his career in the UFC while carrying a two-fight losing streak has him on the edge. He will be fighting to stay alive and avoid questions going forward, as a three-fight skid might be too much and would mean a negative 3-4 career record. Ovince is fighting for the love of the game at this point. He's out of the title picture and won't probably get there anymore, but he's a grizzled veteran who has won all of his fights since 2017 early, handing some tasty bonus fantasy points to his truthers. Must go with OSP.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Raoni Barcelos, $8800 - vs. Timur Valiev
That five-fight winning streak of Gane (read above) is good, but Raoni Barcelos' four-fight one isn't far from it. Barcelos doesn't know how to lose a fight in the UFC, and he has been fantastic in all aspects of the game while racking up Ws. Barcelos has won two via decision, two via KO, has attempted at least 100 SS each time he's been out there while going for 4+ TDs in three of those four fights, and he's landed 50% of his 14 TD attempts.
Valiev, on the other hand, comes as a sophomore with a loss in his debut less than a year ago. He dropped that fight to Trevin Jones... via KO in just 7 minutes of fighting time. He was great landing shots, throwing 93 SS and getting 66 to impact on his foe's body for a 71% success rate. Not a single takedown attempt that day for him, though, let alone land one. That being said, though, he was able to hit for a knockdown, although at the end of the day was him who ended kissing the mat.
Barcelos can't look any better these days and has become a sensation among bantams. He's probably one win away this weekend from finally getting ranked in the division and start getting serious consideration as a serious contender down the road. Gotta go with Raoni snatching his fifth in a row and leaving Valiev on a bad-looking 0-2 to kick his UFC career off.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Andre Fili, $8900 - vs. Daniel Pineda
If this fight was taking place in 2015, we'd know for sure these two wouldn't be making it past the second round. That's because Pineda is 1-1 with a couple of KOs in those two fights in the promo, while Filli was also an early-career finisher himself winning twice via KO and losing two more via submission. Not that much anymore, though.
Fili is 3-2 in his past five fights, all taking place since Feb. 2019. The thing is, though, that he's gone to a decision in 9 of his last 10 bouts. As for Pineda, while he has gone home winner or loser before reaching the third round in both of his performances, he's facing a veteran in Fili this weekend that has no problem squeezing the clock to the last second and leaving it all to the judges' cards.
Fili got his last KO victory only a couple of years ago. He can still do on the mat and goes for takedowns when he thinks that's the way to go without a problem. Pineda, although on a small sample, also went for strikes and takedowns (2-of-4) in his two UFC fights. Close fight this one, but I'm going with the vet here.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tim Means, $8400 - vs. Nicolas Dalby
Nico Dalby is trying to right his wrongs, and he's slowly getting there although with some bumps in the road. Dalby started his UFC tenure with a W, but all he could do after that was getting a draw in his second outing that preceded two consecutive Ls. He's 2-1 since then, all fights taking place in the past 21 months, with a concerning loss coming via submission.
Means, on the other hand, has been around forever, fought for as many as 22 times already... and is clearly past his prime. Not washed, for sure, as his last two fights ended in W, but definitely not a safe bet anymore. The four wins he strung between 2014 and 2015 are no more, and in fact, his longest streak of similar results after that are three consecutive losses in a 2017-2019 span. He's now trying to put together three straight Ws.
Both fighters actively try to get their foes to the mat abusing the takedown count, but they often fail at pulling those TDs off. With that not being a reliable plan, the striking is better for Means than Dalby, and the former should out-strike the latter at that. Both are susceptible to falling to a submission, so it's hard to make a sound prediction, but the numbers give Means a slight edge for fantasy contests if only because of a higher striking volume on much better landing rates.
