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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 27: Font vs. Garbrandt on 05/22/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
I know you're anxious about what is coming in June, but let's calm down for a minute. Sure, having Adesanya's name looming on the horizon makes for a very exciting set of thoughts, but first things first. And first things are UFC Vegas 27 taking place this weekend and featuring a more than interesting main card on Saturday that features four top-four fighters in the two prime fights of the evening.
Cody Gabrandt was on three title fights from 2016 to 2018 in his particular feud with Dom Cruz and TJ Dillashaw, but he's now the no. 4 contender and looking to overtake his foe--Rob Font, no. 3 BW--this weekend on the title picture. Just before that fight takes place, Carla Esparza (no. 4) and Yan Xiaonan (no. 3) will face each other in a Strawweight bout that should put them closer to their first fight for the belt with only Joanna, Weili, and current champ Rose Namajunas above them.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 27: Font vs. Garbrandt on 05/22/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rob Font, $8300 - vs. Cody Garbrandt
I might be alone on this, but it feels to me like Cody was in the middle of that title run he was part of just yesterday. Actually, though, that three-fight span started four and a half years ago in Dec. 2016 and dragged till Aug. 2018. Cody won a title fight against Dominick Cruz, then proceeded to drop two to TJ Dillashaw, and all he's done after that is KO'ing Raphael Assuncao to get back to the W column after getting KO'd himself back in Mar. 2019.
Font, on the other hand, has been fantastic of late and although he's only fought one time per year in the past two, he's 4-1 since the start of 2018... and it is not that Cody has any fighting volume edge over him (Garbrandt also fought just twice in the past two years). Font is more tamed when it comes to KOs, and although he knocked the hell out of Marlon Moraes in his last fight, the truth is that he went to a decision in the prior three fights.
Judging by their most recent runs, Font is the favorite to get that win on Saturday's main event. He's 3-0 in his last three, including a KO. Garbrand is a menace, and it'd be a little bit of a stretch to say his heyday and peak are already past him, but he's a KO-or-get-KO'd fighter these days and he's been on the wrong side of things three of the last four times, which is nothing I want to have anything to do with. Give me Font putting Cody in real danger of going off the rails.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Carla Esparza, $7600 - vs. Yan Xiaonan
This is not the main event but could very well have landed in that spot. Starting with Yan Xiaonan, she's perfect in his UFC tenure with a golden 6-0 record since the first time she's stepped into the Octagon back in 2017. Three decisions gone his way is all she's done. I mean, not bad if you ask me, even more considering the freakish volume of shots she's been going for in his fights (227 SS attempts per fight, 18+ SS per minute).
Esparza, while having a few blemishes in her fight log, has been on a tear since the start of 2019 with a 4-0 perfect record herself. These two are no damn joke; that's is what I mean, folks. Esparza has also won her last four via decision, and although her striking volume (73 SS per fight, almost 5 SS per minute) doesn't compare to Yan's, she has the clear edge on takedowns.
Esparza has attempted at least 9 TDs in each of the past four fights landing 14 of them for a good 36% success rate. Xiaonan has gone for more than one TD just once (though she landed 5-of-6 that day). Volume brings quick and easy fantasy points to the table, but the huge FP-bounties come from working the mat. I'd bet on Esparza limiting Xionan precisely because of that and ultimately getting the win after 15 minutes of fighting.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jared Vanderaa, $7200 - vs. Justin Tafa
A fight for two men's lives! Ah, it never gets old. Justin Tafa and Jared Vanderaa have fought precisely four combined times in the UFC. Their records are 1-2 Tafa, 0-1 Vanderaa. Yes, that means none of the two is currently on even an even and balanced record--let alone a positive one.
This is a heavyweight showdown, which you know what's all about: hit harder than your foe and knock him out before he does it to you. And barring Tafa's last fight which ended in a judges' decision, the other three fights of these two didn't even reach 10 minutes, with two of them finishing in the first round.
Both men need the W, and it is not that stats are going to help a ton here because they have barely fought at all. Tafa got KO'd, then KO'd his foe himself, then lost via decision. Vanderaa was dropped in 9:32 minutes by Serghei Spivac as recently as last February. Betting sites have Tafa way above Vanderaa for this one, but fantasy GMs are rostering the two fighters in pretty much a similar percentage of lineups for the weekend. Super close fight, this one. The distance in salaries is huge, so I'm not mad at taking Jared's flier.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
David Dvorak, $8800 - vs. Raulian Paiva
This is not on the same level as the fight above when it comes to do-or-die stakes, but it's as close as it gets. Dvorak and Paiva are kinda new to the promo with just two and four fights in it respectively, all of them taking place from Feb. 2019 on. In fact, Dvorak debuted in March of 2020 with a W that made way for a second fight... and the first loss in Dvorak's UFC tenure after dropping it to Jordan Espinosa.
Paiva's had pretty much the opposite run, going 0-2 to kick it off before belting a couple of wins against Mark De La Rosa (via KO) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (via decision), both in a five-month span in the middle of 2020.
These two have very similar numbers with Dvorak attempting 9 SS per minute landing 52%, and Paiva hitting foes on 42% of his 10 SS attempted per minute. No fighter has scored himself a TD so far in their six combined fights, and it's not that they're actively trying to bring the action to the mat. This is about striking, and Dvorak has the slight edge there. Paiva has a KO-loss in his resume, and I like David Dvorak's fantasy floor/ceiling/upside more in this fight.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Edmen Shahbazyan, $7300 - vs. Jack Hermansson
Absolute unit of a fight. Yessssir! These two combine for 15 fights in the UFC. Of those 15, as many as 13 finished early. Of those 13, eight ended in KOs. Bring in the fireworks! This has everything to not make it to the final bell. In those 15 combined bouts, Edmen and Jack were inside the Octagon for just under 97 minutes of a potential 235 (41%). That's insane.
Both guys are truly at hitting their primes. Edmen lost his last bout via KO, sure, but he won the prior three via two KOs and one submission, all of those three in 2019 to put up a 3-0 record and currently sitting at 3-1 after falling to Derek Brunson. Hermansson started his run in 2016 and is 8-3 since then but also 3-1 since the start of 2019. Can't get much closer than this one.
Hermansson has a little bit of an edge on the ground, both going for and landing more takedowns than Edmen. Shahbazyand has been better knocking down and out foes recently, though. Given how these two are super-prone to not make it the distance, I'm going Shabhbazyand for this one. Hermansson is the more experienced fighter and the favorite, but Edmen's salary is a goddam bargain... and the reason he's part of the most DK lineups at the time of this writing.
