RADIO
Do you want a ridiculous fact about UFC 263? Here it is. The UFC is visiting Arizona for the first time since Feb. 2019. That's not even this decade, folks! And to add the cherry on top of that, the event before that one (UFC 234) saw the very own Israel Adesanya fight legendary Anderson Silva... before Adesanya had even fought for the championship once! The world has definitely changed since then, is what I mean. Ah... good old times.
Focusing on this weekend event's main card, the truth is that it comes packed as hell. Adesanya and Vettori are bringing their rivalry back to life after more than three years since the first time they faced each other (Adesanya won via decision), now with the former's MW belt in the line. Oh, hey, I forgot to mention that we have another title fight just before that one, this one pitting Deiveson Figueiredo against Brandon Moreno for the FW chip. And the likes of Nate Diaz, Belal Muhammad, and Jamahal Hill are also on the schedule. Oh, boy, are we in for a good one.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 on 06/12/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Israel Adesanya, $9300 - vs. Marvin Vettori
If you read the intro above, you know a little bit about this fight already. Adesanya and Vettori have already fought against each other, sure, but that happened all the way back in April of 2018 when neither of the two was anything remotely close to famous, great, and in the case of Israel, a reigning champ. Vettori was 2-1-1 and Adesanya just 1-0. Just imagine!
Three years later, Vettori will get his chance at redemption, although it's not going to be easy for him to defeat the (at MW weight) undefeated Nigerian. It took Jan Blachowicz all 25 minutes to get a W against Adesanya the last time the latter entered an Octagon, and that Adesanya's first loss in the promo although he was jumping up in classes. Other than that, his record is impeccable at 8-0.
Vettori had a rough start to his career with a 2-2-1 in his first five fights (from debut to the one against Adesanya, included), but he then proceeded to right his wrongs winning four straight since the start of 2019, including his last one against Kevin Holland just a couple of months ago. Vettori has been very nice of late, but Adesanya is virtually untouchable at all, let alone in the MW division. Chalky play, but the correct one.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Deiveson Figueiredo, $9100 - vs. Brandon Moreno
These two might combine for the weirdest run of fights ever. Figueiredo fought for the chip as soon as in February of last year, only to miss on weight and surrender the chance at getting named champ even though he ended winning his first fight against Joseph Benavidez. He did again in July, winning the belt once for all. After a fight against Alex Perez that lasted just 1:57 minutes (submission win) he faced... Brandon Moreno (!) last December and the fight ended... in a draw!
Moreno got to that result thanks to Figueiredo losing points in a round, which turned a potential W in a draw and handed Moreno the chance he's facing this weekend in the rematch for the FW title. Moreno had won three straight before drawing his last fight with Figueiredo, while the latter was on a five-fight winning streak prior to his last outing.
With the dominance Figueiredo has shown of late--four early finishes; three subs and one KO--it's going to be hard to see him dropping this one. No hate on Moreno, don't get me wrong, but he's KO'd one and won the other two of his three straight via decision, while needing a point-sub from Deiveson to draw his last fight. Another chalky one, but once more another almost-sure-thing to happen.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Leon Edwards, $9500 - vs. Nate Diaz
Talk about experienced fighters, man. Leon and Nate have stepped into the right a combined 35 times since they did so for the first time in 2014 and 2007 (!). That's right, more than seven and 14 years ago respectively. Uh, oh. And the most incredible thing about this is that they're still tough as nails.
Nate Diaz enters this one as the clear underdog, obviously, as he's been the shakier fighter of these two of late. In fact, since 2015 Diaz has only fought five times (two of them, the latest, in 2019) with a 3-2 record in which he lost to both Conor McGregor and Jorge Masvidal. Kudos to the man for taking on those very hard assignments.
Leon Edwards is the favorite for a reason: He's a career 10-2 fighter and his last time out he got to a draw against Belal Muhammad after the fight was declared a no-contest after an eye poke prevented these two to reach a proper conclusion. Edwards had not fought since 2019 prior to that Mar. 2021 fight, which is worrying, but when he was active he was on a ridiculous eight-win streak. Gotta bet on him rebounding (rebounding? after a draw? is that right?) and getting back to the W column.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Demian Maia, $7200 - vs. Belal Muhammad
Belal Muhammad got poked (no intentioned) in the eye the last time he entered the Octagon against Leon Edwards, which forced the bout to be stopped and declared a no-contest draw. Before that, though, Belal had been magnificent with four wins in a row getting back to Apr. 2019 and looking better by the day going from landing 47 SS to 49, 82, and 129 in his last complete fight while landing 7 takedowns in those four bouts.
Demian Maia, on the other side this Saturday, comes off a loss to Gilbert Burns back in March of 2020. With more than a year since that fight, Maia is getting into this thing with rust concerns attached to his forehead. Maia is 3-1 since te start of 2019, but again, we're talking about something taking place more than two years ago with the last sample not being overly great as Maia ate a KO in just 2:34 minutes of fighting time...
In the 2017-2021 span, Belal was able to get to a sublime 8-1 record without counting the draw against Edwards. Maia has not strung four consecutive wins (as Muhammad had before the draw) since his heyday all the way back in 2015-2017. This looks like a walk for Belal, who has everything to outstrike Maia and counterattack his takedowns and ground/grappling game.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Craig, $6800 - vs. Jamahal Hill
A sophomore fighting a near-five-year veteran? Yes! And a man who has just fought once in the UFC, but snatched the first-round win via KO in fewer than two minutes of the fighting time!? Oh, man, we don't want to miss this one.
Paul Craig started his tenure back in Dec. 2016 and he's been up and down ever since alternating wins and losses for most of his career. He's now on a two-win streak after drawing with Mo Rua (he won the prior fight to that too). He's taken his time, for sure, but Craig is finally getting there, it seems.
Hill, on the other hand, only has one fight to his name. But it couldn't have gone better for him. 14-of-24 significant strikes landed (58%) in 1:51 minutes of fighting time, which is all his foe (Klidson Abreu) lasted against him before getting KO'd cold. Folks will go Hill because he is a sophomore and looks as fresh as he can, but Craig is an experienced fighter, comes with both striking and submission upside, and is hitting his best moment in the UFC. Gotta go with the dog here.
