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Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for tennis and soccer, respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season, which means it's time to sharpen our skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today, I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Tuesday, December, 12, 2023, at 7:00 PM EDT. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via Twitter/X @df_solutions, or in our premium Slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 12/12/23
We have finally made it! The 2023-2024 season is upon us and we welcome the next generational talent, Connor Bedard, to the front and center! With many big moves over the offseason -- Karlsson to Pittsburgh -- and many signings during free agency, this season will make for yet another interesting race to Lord Stanley!
Tonight we have a ten-game slate and a few teams playing on a back-to-back, Arizona, Toronto and Calgary. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Edmonton with 4.5, Florida with 3.7 and Winnipeg with 3.7. I will do my best to guide you through this ten-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the NHL news feeds for the latest player status and injury news.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Sergei Bobrovsky - DK $7.9K || FD $8.4K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Over the season, Seattle is the fourth-worst team in Shots to Goal Conversion on the slate tonight. It is no surprise either with the Kraken being outscored six to fifteen over their last five games, excluding home and away splits. However, broken down into just home games and they are still being outscored twelve to eighteen. In comparison though, Florida’s defense and goaltending is much steadier than that of Tampa Bay, Chicago and Toronto – all teams in this stretch that Seattle has scored three or more goals –. On the season for all goalies that have played 120 or more minutes, Bobrovsky is the ninth-best in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60. After the netminder lost 3-0 at home to Winnipeg on Black Friday, he has won four straight, posting a 1.5 Goals Against Average and a 0.941 Save Percentage. This is by far one of the most optimal spots at goalie on the slate.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP):
- Thompson (DK $8.3K || FD $8K)
- Lyon (DK $7.4K || FD $7.3K)
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— 🇺🇦Shockmain (@Shockmain) January 6, 2023
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Connor McDavid - DK $9.3K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Let’s introduce the chalk of the chalk tonight. Tonight hockey fans get to witness the beginning of a renewed rivalry between the Edmonton Oilers and the Chicago Blackhawks with Connor McDavid playing Connor Bedard. While both have the potential to score tonight or register a point in general, McDavid has the supreme matchup. Chicago is poor at defense overall, sitting in the bottom five in all meaningful metrics – most notably the second-worst in both Scoring Chances Against Per 90 and High Danger Chances Against Per 90 –. Since the coaching change in Edmonton, the Oilers have gone 9-3 and have outscored their opponents 49 to 32 in that span. In comparison, over the twelve-game window before the coaching change, Edmonton went 3-9 and they were outscored 35 to 42. It has been a drastic change for the better and McDavid has seen a huge resurgence. Over his last five appearances, he has 3 goals, 8 assists, 12 shots and 2 blocked shots. Going up against one of the worst defenses in the league, McDavid is expected at least a point tonight.
Chandler Stephenson - DK $3.4K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
After a lineup shuffle and a spell on the third line, Stephenson has made his return to the second line with a new winger to play with. Jonathan Marchessault has stayed on the second line after he and Mark Stone swapped places and it seemed to have paid off immediately. Stephenson and Marchessault hit it off right away and combined for three goals and 1 assist in the 5-4 win over San Jose at the weekend. In that game, Stephenson had 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 shots and 3 blocked shots. Dating it back to his last five games and he has 2 goals, 2 assists, 8 shots and 4 blocked shots. Playing in a more offensive role again, Stephenson is expected to see an uptick in his shot volume and at slightly above minimum salary on DraftKings tonight against one of the worst goalie tandems in the league who are playing on a back-to-back, sets him and the Knights up for success.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Crosby (DK $7.6K || FD $9.1K)
- Trocheck (DK $6.1K || FD $6.6K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Valtteri Puustinen - DK $2.6K || FD $3K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
The Penguins are attempting something that has been needed for a long time. Running a big forward on the first power-play unit. With a plethora of big names to pay up for tonight and Puustinen’s role, he should be some of the heaviest chalk on the slate. Especially when considering his matchup. So far in his young NHL career, Puustinen is on a point-per-game pace with two assists in two games. In his season debut in the 3-1 loss to Florida, the winger had 1 assist, 1 shot and 1 blocked shot. Playing on the second line and the top power-play unit for $3K on DraftKings in a prime matchup is one of the best value spots you will find on the slate in any position tonight.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - DK $5.2K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins may be even chalkier than of his center and linemate, Connor McDavid tonight, strictly due to his salary. The hybrid center/winger has been back on the top line since the coaching change and it instantly unlocked McDavid. In RNH’s most recent five games, he has 6 assists, 6 shots and 3 blocked shots. As expected, his shot volume is less than desired for a first line winger, however, that is the nature of his play. As a playmaker and a pass-first winger, RNH will be looking for McDavid all night. Expect the two to link up at least once against Chicago’s poor aforementioned defense.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Marchessault (DK $6.1K || FD $6.9K)
- Iafallo (DK $4.1K || FD $5K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Mikhail Sergachev - DK $4.6K || FD $5.7K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
Sergachev is a pure speculative play at this point with teammate Victor Hedman potentially missing tonight after leaving the 4-3 win over Seattle during the end of the second period. If Hedman is ultimately ruled out, Sergachev is immediately thrust into the top pairing and top power-play unit for the Lightning. Throughout his last five games, he has 1 assist, 8 shots and 17 blocked shots. Surprisingly, the bulk of Sergachev’s production has come on the defensive end of the puck this season. However, if he were to get Hedman’s role, he would have the best opportunity to produce offensively. In a matchup with a high-powered Canucks team, Sergachev will get the chance to produce at both ends of the ice.
Ben Hutton - DK $3.3K || FD $3.7K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
There are multiple value plays at defense tonight, however, none of them beat Ben Hutton. Hutton is on the top pairing and quarterbacking the second power-play unit for Vegas. Furthermore, he has a prime matchup against the Flames who are playing on a back-to-back and running their worst goalie. Thankfully due to Hutton’s inconsistencies, his salary rarely moves, despite having the two great roles. In his last five appearances, he has 2 assists, 9 shots and 11 blocked shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Sanderson (DK $4.6K || FD $6.2K)
- Evans (DK $2.9K || FD $K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- EDM1
- VGK1
- WPG1
- NYR1
- PIT1
NHL DFS Stacks of the Day
Brandon's Stack
- VGK: Howden-Stephenson-Marchessault
Chalk Stack
- EDM: Nugent-Hopkins-McDavid-Draisaitl
Sneaky Stack
- EDM: Janmark-McLeod-Foegele
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
