RADIO
Hey, Rotoballers! I’d like to formally introduce myself, my name is Jon Irvin. Some of you may know me from the Discord channels and know I love breaking down dfs slates especially in MLB and NHL. I enjoy the deep dumpster diving so to speak, and look forward to helping find the low owned overlooked, and unwanted plays. I predominantly play on DraftKings so some of my picks are more tailored to their point/price system but a good spot is a good spot regardless of platform. As for the NHL, I have devised a differential chart that emphasizes trends from the last 25 and last 10 games so keep your eye on that in a few weeks.
Today's DFS content will be for the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, October 30, 2023. Unfortunately with the season only a few weeks old, we have little regular season data to pull from but let's get to it and find today's value path to DFS green.
Make sure and jump into the RotoBaller Discord NHL channel after reading this and chat it up with all the other great minds about today's slate. Don’t forget to also check out our valuable NHL tools including the new NHL DFS Heat Map.
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 10/30/23
We have a nice nine-game slate tonight, filled with high-powered offenses facing suspect defenses. With teams including Pittsburgh, Boston, Florida, and Dallas leading the pack, we will have many top-tier options to pay for. Perennial punching bag Columbus Blue Jackets visit Dallas tonight which has me very interested in the Stars top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski. That full line comes in at DK $20.1K || FD $24.9, which means we're going to need to find some serious savings.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
For goalies, I usually look to target teams that yield a high shot volume yet give up fewer high-danger chances. Keep in mind saves are especially key on DK with the 35 saves bonus, but wins are weighed more over on FD. Most of the time this will take us to the bottom of the pricing tier, but fear not, the reward is well worth the risk.
Carter Hart - DK $7.3K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Carolina Hurricanes
If money was no option I’d tell you to stick Oettinger in the net for the high win probability. Most of our cheaper options tonight face tough opposition and only one, Carter Hart, is playing on home ice. Hart has been electric at times, yielding only a 2.18 GAA and a .924 SV%, he should face a hefty shot volume vs the Canes who have been averaging over 33 SF/60.
Others to consider: Lukas Dostal ( DK $6.9K || FD $6.9K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
William Karlsson - DK $3.9K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Karlsson and his mates on Vegas3 have been a steady line since forming four games ago. Unfortunately, the third line yields time on ice in 5v5 to the top two lines, but Karlsson finds himself not only on the PP2 unit but also on PK1 allowing more time to fill his stat line. Over his past 5 games, Karlsson has produced 2 goals, 4 assists, 8 shots, and 4 blocks, in just over 16 minutes per game. If Vegas 3 can avoid the Suzuki line for MTL, they could find themselves able to light the lamp versus a Canadiens team with a 2.96 xGA.
Others to consider: Eetu Luostarinen ( DK $3.6K || FD $3.5K - W)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Pavel Dorofeyev - DK $2.8K || FD $3.3K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
We find ourselves back to VGK3 and Dorofeyev who has made the most of his ice time since Nicolas Roy hit the shelf with a goal and an assist in four games. The problem lies in the lack of 5v5 time but when on the ice he's averaging over 40 SF/60. Another plus side on the value winger is finding himself on the PP2 unit as well.
Jordan Martinook - DK $3.1K || FD $4.0K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Martinook has been on the side of unlucky this year. His metrics are amazing, a 93CF is unheard of, 34SF/60,14 HDCF/60, and an xGF of 3.33! With all of those numbers aside, he has yet to score and only has 1 assist on the year. Tonight's matchup with the Flyers is tough but he has the green light to shoot which is what we like to hear when trying to save salary.
Others to consider: Brendan Gallagher ( DK $3.0K || FD $3.6K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Now my fellow chatmates would tell me to just lock in Noah Dobson, He has been a stud don't get me wrong, but his price is creeping up and I’m stingy. I love hunting under the $4K price range for value Dmen who have an excellent chance at the 3-block bonus.
Ilya Lyubushkin - DK $2.9K || FD $3.7K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
DK has stuck Lyubushkin at or under $3K all year, maybe it's the lack of shot volume or the fact that as a defenseman he rarely sees more than 18 min TOI. Whatever the reason may be, the shot block volume can not be ignored. You're almost guaranteed a decent chance at more than 3 blocks and eventually, he’ll find himself attached to a goal sooner or later.
Erik Gudbranson - DK $3.1K || FD $3.6K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Keep an eye on his status, as of writing this article Gudbranson is questionable. Another excellent shot blocker who rarely sees his price go up due to a lack of offensive production. When he can block 8, an occasional shot is icing.
Others to consider: Kaiden Guhle ( DK $3.3K || FD $4.1K)
JIrv’s Discount Stacks and Sample Lineups
VGK3
CAR3
MTL3
Things seemed to have aligned fairly well in my lineup construction for both DraftKings and FanDuel. DAL1 and VGK3 fit nicely and allow enough salary remaining for everyone's favorite defenseman Noah Dobson. Good Luck, RotoBallers!
