RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for tennis and soccer, respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season, which means it's time to sharpen our skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today, I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, January, 20, 2024, at 7:00 p.m. EDT. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via Twitter/X @df_solutions, or in our premium Slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/20/24
We have finally made it! The 2023-2024 season is just about halfway done as the holiday season closes. There have been some surprises, both good and bad, and generational talent Connor Bedard has not disappointed. With teams still in flux and many unwritten stories yet to take fold, the race to the Stanley Cup is heating up!
Tonight we have an eight-game slate and one team playing on a back-to-back, New Jersey. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Boston with 3.9, Edmonton with 3.6 and Vancouver with 3.5. I will do my best to guide you through this eight-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the NHL news feeds for the latest player status and injury news.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Tristan Jarry - DK $7.3K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
Coming off his fifth shutout of the season, Jarry is the top-value goalie on the slate. The netminder has a 1-1-2 record over his last five starts along with a 2.57 Goals Against Average and a 0.914 Save Percentage. Furthermore, out of 49 goalies who have played 120 minutes or more in their respective team’s last ten games, Jarry is in the top 20 in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60. On the other end of the ice, the Golden Knights in their last ten games – not excluding splits –, are in the top ten in Shots For Per 60 and sit just outside the bottom ten in Goals For Per 60. As the third least-expensive goalie on the slate and in an expected fast-paced matchup, Jarry is expected to maintain value.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP):
- Talbot (DK $7.8K || FD $7.7K)
- Montembeault (DK $7K || FD $6.6K)
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— 🇺🇦Shockmain (@Shockmain) January 6, 2023
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Connor McDavid - DK $9.5K || FD $10.4K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
With Maple Leafs forward, Auston Matthews on a potential record-setting pace, Connor McDavid may be less owned than typical. By his standards, he has slowed down lately with just 2 goals, 3 assists, 21 shots and 4 blocked shots in his last five games. However, he is still performing miles above the average center in the league. The Flames are projected to roll out Daniel Vladar once again with Jacob Markstrom battling through illnesses, injuries and trade rumors. Vladar is the third-worst goalie in the last ten games in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -0.54 – and in Calgary’s last ten away games, they are in the bottom ten in Goals Against Per 60. A potential McDavid ceiling game is in sight.
Tomas Hertl - DK $5.5K || FD $6.8K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
After ‘leading’ the team up until now, Hertl will now become second in command with center and teammate, Logan Couture finally making his long-awaited return and season debut. In Hertl’s last five games, he has 2 assists, 9 shots and 10 blocked shots. Unfortunately, he is not producing points as expected, however, he is producing peripherals on both sides of the puck to make up for it. With less checking lines going against him now as the 2C, he should see a few more chances open up. The Ducks remain in the bottom ten in all meaningful metrics in their last ten matches – not excluding splits – and despite San Jose struggling to score, tonight opens up the perfect positive regression narrative.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Crosby (DK $8K || FD $9.4K)
- Hayes (DK $3.4K || FD $5K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Max Pacioretty - DK $5.1K || FD $5K
Opponent - St. Louis Blues
Patches is back and in a big and much needed way. The Capitals are struggling in more ways than one offensively, due to their single-minded offense – getting Ovechkin the puck –, however, they now have an Ovechkin 2.0. Max Pacioretty at his prime is an unstoppable machine in his own right with 650 points in 863 games played, courtesy of Rotowire. Throughout Pacioretty’s most recent five games, he has 1 goal, 3 assists, 12 shots and 1 blocked shot. Whether he plays on the top line or not, his shot generation is very promising and he can maintain value from that alone. In the first meeting where the winger had 2 assists and 5 shots, a similar outcome is expected here.
William Eklund - DK $3.5K || FD $4.2K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Following Tomas Hertl’s scent for goals, William Eklund is the next Shark up. Eklund has 1 assist, 12 shots and 4 blocked shots in his last five games and comes into this prime matchup with a new linemate in Tomas Hertl. Keep in mind the numbers will be skewed a bit due to the lack of time with Hertl and Alexander Barabanov on a line together, however, Hertl and Eklund outperform Hertl and Barabanov tenfold. Eklund is not a true goal scorer, but Hertl is and Eklund is expected to be the main playmaker on the line, providing value at low-cost. The only downfall of his game, is his lack of shots and with Hertl now on the line, that will become an even bigger worry.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Kane (DK $5.3K || FD $6.6K)
- Seguin (DK $4.6K || FD $6.8K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Colton Parayko - DK $4.9K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Is Parayko finally reaching his potential? The two-way player has been a ‘hail marry’ for the Blues, after they let Vegas two-way defender, Alex Pietrangelo walk in Free Agency a few years ago and let go of Vince Dunn during Seattle’s Expansion Draft. So far he has not completely lived up to expectations, however, he is starting to reach form. Throughout his last five appearances, he has 2 assists, 13 shots and 15 blocked shots. Currently, he is averaging a Blocked Shots Bonus on DraftKings in that window. In the second half of the home-and-home with the Capitals, Parayko will be heavily relied upon once more and he is expected to maintain value.
Mario Ferrero - DK $4.7K || FD $5K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
To conclude the Dunk hunting Sharks, Mario Ferrero brings it home in San Jose. Ferraro who typically is forced to play as a defensive-defender, versus a two-way defender is starting to catch some slack. He is now starting to showcase his offensive upside with a turn of form for the Sharks. In his most recent five games, he has 3 assists, 12 shots and 27 blocked shots. When selecting defenders, it is always viable to find a shot blocking defenseman that offers offensive upside. Ferraro matches this perfectly.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Letang (DK $5.5K || FD $6.6K)
- Lindell (DK $3.9K || FD $4.4K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- EDM1
- PIT1
- TOR1
- VAN1
NHL DFS Stacks of the Day
Brandon's Stack
- SJ: Eklund-Hertl-Duclair
Chalk Stack
- BOS: Marchand-Coyle-Pastrnak
Sneaky Stack
- STL: Schenn-Hayes-Kyrou
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
