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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With games scattered throughout the day, we're down to a seven-game main slate. Today's matchups feature no shortage of top-line pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/17/2023 and the early slate locking at 7:07 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. TEX ($12,000 DK, $11,500 FD)
Strider operates in a tier of his own these days, and his steep price tag reflects as much. He leads the majors with 79 strikeouts through eight starts, which includes a staggering 42.9% strikeout rate and 40.4% whiff rate. Strider has recorded a minimum of eight strikeouts in every outing this season and 10 or more in three of his last four appearances. He's not completely immune to surrendering offense, but with reliably dominant strikeout numbers, Strider's floor remains firm.
Deeper on Strider's dominance, he's yet to allow more than four earned runs or five hits in any start this season. Strider sports a .174 xBA, .280 xSLG, .244 xwOBA, and 2.47 xFIP. That all amounts to an outstanding 2.40 xERA. The only downside to Strider's game is that he typically does not work deep. Between high strikeout totals and a middling 8.2% walk rate contributing to ballooning pitch counts, Strider averages just under six innings pitched per start this season.
The matchup is admittedly far from ideal. Texas scores a blistering 6.2 runs per game, including a strong .767 OPS against right-handed pitching. Still, the Rangers strike out at an above-average 23.8% rate, and Spencer Strider is not like other right-handed pitchers. On some days, he's as close to a lock as it gets. Today, I'm hoping Strider's price tag and poor matchup keep his ownership in check.
J.P. France, HOU vs. CHC ($7,900 DK, $9,300 FD)
It feels strange to highlight a rookie making the third start of his career, especially on a slate with this many big-name studs, but in the spirit of salary relief -- J.P. France. France has dominated over his first two outings, surrendering one earned run and six total hits over 11 2/3 innings pitched. This builds off a dominant start to the campaign in Triple-A, where France posted a 2.33 ERA and 2.97 FIP over five appearances. Notably, France sported a 33.8% strikeout rate in the minors, suggesting there's a fantasy upside we're yet to uncover.
The primary reason (other than price) that France is looking good today is his matchup. Since opening the season as one of the league's hotter offenses, the Cubs' bats have cooled down considerably as of late. Outside of Christopher Morel's call-up, the rest of the lineup is slumping considerably.
Further, Cody Bellinger is day-to-day with a knee injury, while Nico Hoerner remains on the injured list until at least the end of the week. In total, the Cubs carry a weak .677 OPS against right-handed pitching since the beginning of May. That includes a .118 ISO, 88 wRC+, and 26% strikeout rate.
France carries some risk, but with both price and matchup working in his favor, I really like him as a tournament play.
Also consider: Gerrit Cole, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Chapman – 3B, TOR vs. Gerrit Cole ($5,000 DK, $3,500 FD)
Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he's also no stranger to the long ball. In 2022, Cole surrendered 36 home runs, the second-highest total of any pitcher. After seemingly addressing the problem through the first month of the 2023 campaign, Cole has been taken deep four times over his last two appearances -- all against right-handed hitters.
Chapman is my pick to take Cole deep today. He only has five home runs for the season but leads the majors with 18 doubles, and his advanced stats suggest plenty of positive regression coming in the long ball department. Chapman ranks in the 98th percentile or better with each of his 95.2 mph average exit velocities, .627 xSLG, 65.7% hard-hit rate, .425 xwOBA, and 25.7% barrel rate. He's one of the most locked-in hitters in the league this season, and Chapman is worth spending up for at presumably low ownership today.
Justin Turner – 1B, BOS vs. Marco Gonzales ($3,400 DK, $2,900 FD)
Marco Gonzales' career-long struggles with right-handed hitters have carried over into 2023. He sports a .475 slugging percentage and .352 wOBA against righties, including four home runs. Fortunately for Gonzales, Boston's best bats are all left-handed hitters.
Among Red Sox righties, Turner looks like the best play. His price tag is cheap, and he's always been something of a southpaw specialist at the plate. Tuner brings a career .817 OPS and 123 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Owen Miller – 2B/3B, MIL vs. Matthew Liberatore ($2,400 DK, $2,600 FD)
Miller has supplanted Mike Brosseau as the Brewers' go-to leadoff hitter against left-handed pitching, and he's making the most of the opportunity. Miller has recorded a hit in nine consecutive games entering today, slashing .329/.350/.461 in total for the season. There isn't a ton of pop in Miller's bat, but he's hitting .357 against southpaw pitching and expects to hit atop the order for near-minimum pricing. He's an easy guy to roster.
Matthew Liberatore is making his 2023 debut on Wednesday. He's a regarded prospect in the Cardinals' system, but Liberatore struggled during his first taste of the majors last season. He accrued a 5.49 xERA across nine appearances, including a .615 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Julio Rodriguez – OF, SEA vs. Brayan Bello ($5,300 DK, $3,500 FD)
Brayan Bello has struggled this season, posting a 5.06 xERA through five outings. He's yet to make it through a start without surrendering a home run. Right-handed hitters have particularly plagued Bello, owning a .625 slugging percentage and .409 wOBA against him.
Julio Rodriguez hasn't posted the big numbers that were expected of his sophomore campaign, but the underlying numbers suggest positive regression on the way. He carries a .453 xSLG, 91.2 mph average exit velocity, 10.9% barrel rate, and 45.5% hard-hit rate. There's still plenty of pop in Rodriguez's bat, and his elite speed opens up numerous avenues for scoring fantasy points. This is a great matchup for Rodriguez to go off.
Luis Robert Jr. – OF, CWS vs. Peyton Battenfield ($3,800 DK, $3,600 FD)
Robert is quietly one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He's hit safely in 13 of his last 14 appearances, hitting seven home runs in that span, including four consecutive games with a long ball entering today. Robert has fully shaken off his sluggish start to the season and now sports an elite .531 xSLG, .366 xwOBA, and 14.7% barrel rate.
Peyton Battenfield will have his hands full with Robert's red-hot bat. He ranks in the bottom percentile among all pitchers with a 93.9 mph average exit velocity alongside similarly mediocre numbers like a 50% hard-hit rate, .356 xwOBA, .487 xSLG, and a 13.6% barrel rate.
Jake Bauers – OF, NYY vs. Chris Bassitt ($2,000 DK, $2,400 FD)
Bauers is about as confident a play as you can find for the minimum price. He's been slotted in as a leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching lately, translating into extra opportunities at the dish. Bauers has also delivered against right-handed pitching this season, slugging .545 with a .273 ISO.
Despite being on something of a hot stretch lately, Chris Bassitt continues to struggle against left-handed hitting. Lefties are slugging .500 against him with five home runs and a .374 wOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Mariners vs. Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello's problems go much deeper than the 5.06 xERA highlighted above. Opposing batters carry a gaudy .477 xSLG against him, including a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, 52.1% hard-hit rate, .347 xwOBA, and .274 xBA. Bello is unlikely to keep Seattle quiet for long.
The Mariners haven't been the most consistent offense in 2023, but they still put up a respectable 4.5 runs per game. They carry a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the beginning of May, and slumping bats like Julio Rodriguez are due for positive regression. Seattle exploded for 10 runs on Monday, and with Bello on the mound, this is another great spot for them.
Favorite Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez
White Sox vs. Peyton Battenfield
Peyton Battenfield's struggles are touched on above. He ranks in the bottom percentile with a 93.9 mph average exit velocity alongside similarly bad numbers like a .487 xSLG, .265 xBA, .356 xwOBA, 50% hard-hit rate, and 13.6% barrel rate. Altogether, that adds up to a 5.36 xERA. In a slate stacked with strong pitchers, Battenfield is not among them.
The White Sox have not carried the scariest offense this season, but they are starting to come alive. Luis Robert Jr. is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now, Yoan Moncada finally returned, and it's only a matter of time until Tim Anderson starts producing. Aside from the favorable matchup, the best part of playing the White Sox is how cheap they are. Rostering and stacking Chicago hitters will be very accessible for those who want to.
Favorite Plays: Luis Robert Jr., Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn
Also Consider: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers
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