Happy Thursday and happy September, RotoBallers! This is John Brubaker dropping some of my favorite plays for today's slate. After a mid-size slate last week, we're unfortunately stuck with a tiny slate tonight, with four games on DraftKings and three games on FanDuel. While it is nicer to have a large player pool on a decent-sized slate, small slates can be profitable if you have the edge. That's where I come in!
We do have a minor slate difference tonight, with DraftKings adding the 6:10 game in Cleveland between the Orioles and Guardians. While I don't have a ton of looks from that game, I will be targeting a specific player in my lineups, and I think you know who that may be.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings at 6:10 pm and FanDuel at 7:10 pm on 9/1/2022. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options, and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all of that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Strider, ATL vs COL ($8,800 DK, $9,900 FD)
To start tonight's slate I'll be looking at Spencer Strider. It was pretty much a toss-up between Strider and Brandon Woodruff tonight, so I opted for Strider due to him being both the cheaper option as well as, in my opinion, the more favorable matchup. Strider projects to a 2.68 xFIP and 34.23% strikeout rate tonight against Colorado. Colorado, like I mentioned last week when they started this road trip against Jacob deGrom and the Mets, have struggled away from Coors Field. I'll look to take advantage of that tonight.
DraftKings Projection: 17.21
FanDuel Projection: 32.8
Rich Hill, BOS vs TEX ($7,000 DK, $8,100 FD)
For my value arm, I'll be looking at Rich Hill. I stacked against Hill in his last start, which turned out to be a mistake as he absolutely shut down the Rays, tossing seven innings of shutout ball with 11 strikeouts and just one walk. He'll have a bit of a tougher go this evening against the Rangers, who rank fifth in the Majors in wRC+ against LHP (119). However, I project Hill to a 3.88 xFIP and 21.12% strikeout rate, so I'll back him on DraftKings given his cheap price.
DraftKings Projection: 13.12
FanDuel Projection: 26.42
Also consider: Brandon Woodruff, Merrill Kelly
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson - 1B, ATL vs. Chad Kuhl ($5,300 DK, $3,900 FD)
As far as hitters go, I'll start off with an article favorite - Matt Olson. Olson has found his stroke in Atlanta, coming into this game with a .250 average and an OPS of .825. He projects to nearly a 50% hard contact rate tonight, as well as a projected .607 wOBA + ISO against Chad Kuhl's pitch types. Olson is 0-2 with a walk against Kuhl but is in a premium spot in a Braves stack we'll be using tonight.
DraftKings Projection: 11.76
FanDuel Projection: 15.87
Gunnar Henderson - SS, BAL vs. Shane Bieber ($2,600 DK, N/A FD)
Of course, I have to mention Gunnar Henderson tonight. Henderson went 2-4 in his Major League debut last night, including a solo home run in his second at bat. He'll get a tough matchup tonight against Cleveland ace Shane Bieber, but it's darn near impossible not to play him tonight at his cheap price on a small slate like this one.
DraftKings Projection: 8.94
FanDuel Projection: N/A
Mark Mathias - 1B/2B, TEX vs. Rich Hill ($2,000 DK, $2,700 FD)
To round up our infielders, I'll select Mark Mathias as my value play. Mathias projects extremely well against Rich Hill, projecting to a 43.74% hard contact rate and .723 wOBA + ISO against his pitch types. He's yet to face the veteran southpaw. I normally wouldn't recommend selecting a hitter that's facing one of your pitchers, but on a small slate it may end up being optimal. His minimum price on DraftKings opens up the door to fill your lineup with the studs in Atlanta.
DraftKings Projection: 8.46
FanDuel Projection: 10.03
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Ronald Acuna - OF, ATL vs. Chad Kuhl ($6,000 DK, $4,200 FD)
As I begin with my favorite outfielders, I'll go to another article favorite, Ronald Acuna. Acuna is hitting .274 with a .780 OPS going into tonight and takes on Colorado righty Chad Kuhl. Acuna doesn't project as well as some of the other Braves hitters, with just a 32.5% hard contact rate projection and .564 wOBA + ISO against Kuhl's pitch types. Acuna is just 1-6 against Kuhl, but should lead off tonight, and I project that he'll pay off his price on both sites.
DraftKings Projection: 13.62
FanDuel Projection: 16.62
Michael Harris - OF, ATL vs. Chad Kuhl ($4,300 DK, $3,600 FD)
Due to the small slate, I'll triple up on Braves here, finishing up with Michael Harris. Harris has been excellent for Atlanta this season, hitting .298 with a .859 OPS on the season. He's arguably the best projected Brave on the slate tonight, projecting to a 45.86% hard contact rate and a whopping 1.079 wOBA + ISO against Kuhl's pitch types. He comes into this one 1-2 off Kuhl, but should be a staple in all of my stacks.
DraftKings Projection: 12.43
FanDuel Projection: 16.16
Alex Verdugo - OF, BOS vs. Glenn Otto ($3,700 DK, $3,100 FD)
I'll finish off tonight with Alex Verdugo against Texas righty Glenn Otto. Verdugo comes into tonight's showdown hitting .283 with a .729 OPS on the year. He's begun to heat up lately and projects to a 33.11% hard contact rate and .617 wOBA + ISO against Otto's pitch types. He's yet to face Otto, but should be a solid part of my Boston stacks as he should be in the two-hole for tonight's contest.
DraftKings Projection: 9.38
FanDuel Projection: 11.2
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Atlanta Braves vs. Chad Kuhl
No surprise here, as the Braves come into tonight as the top stack. They have a stack rating of 64.27, the highest on the slate by nearly five points according to my model. They rank fifth in OPS (.747), sixth in wOBA (.324), and ninth in wRC+ (105). They also have a cumulated wOBA + ISO of .616 against Kuhl's pitch types and should feast on the dainty Colorado bullpen as well.
Favorite Plays: Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris, Travis d'Arnaud
Boston Red Sox vs. Glenn Otto
My second rated stack on the slate would be the Boston Red Sox (59.65). The Red Sox are roughly middle of the pack against right-handed pitchers, ranking 12th in OPS (.712), 13th in wOBA (.310), and 17th in wRC+ (97). Mind you, this isn't as much about Boston being great as it is about Glenn Otto being not so good. Boston has just a cumulated wOBA + ISO of .490 against Otto's pitch types, but I think they'll be able to get to the righty and are a quality second option to Atlanta.
Favorite Plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts
Also Consider: Milwaukee Brewers
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