RADIO
The top daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on October 3, 2022. Thunder Dan Palyo provides preseason NBA DFS analysis and sleeper picks for building optimal DFS rosters.
NBA DFS is back! Yes, we still have two weeks until the season officially tips off, but that doesn't mean we can't get ahead of the field by playing some NBA Preseason DFS! Is it risky? Absolutely! Can it be fun and possibly lucrative? Also, yes!
Preseason rotations are never easy to figure out and there's a lot of guessing that goes on for these slates. If you can't stomach the variance, then just sit back and let the rest of us sweat these slates out. I do my best to find some of the best plays, but even I have fairly limited information to work with here. If you're interested in following NBA beat writers on Twitter and trying to keep up with the latest info about which players are in or out and if coaches mention any plans for minutes, then you can follow this list (I am constantly updating it each season).
I highly encourage you to follow me on Twitter and check out the list of beat writers that I follow to keep informed on the latest up-to-date information about each team and their plans for minutes and rotations. In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 10/3/22. You can always find me in the RotoBaller Discord or @ThunderDanDFS on Twitter.
Preseason NBA Overview
The first thing you need to know is that building lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings in the preseason is going to be very different than during the regular season. FanDuel has decided to keep their prices low (everyone is priced at 6,000 or less) and therefore you can build a lineup with any nine players you want as long as you roster two PG, SG, SF, PF, and one C. We can leverage that on FanDuel by rostering some lesser-known players, since we should expect the well-known players to be more highly-targeted, especially amongst more casual players and fans.
All prices listed in the article are DraftKings prices since the FD prices simply don't matter and you can play anyone you want.
DraftKings has priced guys as they would on a normal slate for the most part, but we do get discounts on superstars if we want to cram some into lineups. I like to use a balance of younger players with some veterans that we can project for solid minutes and, honestly every slate is different to some degree. With only a few days of practice before the first preseason games, I would expect we don't see any big minutes for starters in the first few games with most teams easing their guys into action, and we should see plenty of well-known guys and veterans sit out altogether.
NBA DFS Games
Here are some game-by-game notes and what I've been able to gather about each team so far.
Philadelphia @ Brooklyn
The return of Ben Simmons will come against his old team! Oh, the drama! That is assuming that Simmons plays tonight, and he might. Kevin Durant said he'd probably play in all four of the Nets' preseason games, but I'd expect very little. The same goes for Kyrie Irving. If we get word that Simmons is going to play, he's an interesting target since the Nets probably want him to get more time on the court since he hasn't played in a real NBA game in over a year. Joe Harris is also expected to play after missing most of last season with an injury.
Doc Rivers said three of Philly's starters won't play tonight, but he didn't say which guys (gee, thanks a lot, Doc). My guess would be Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tobias Harris but we will need to get a starting lineup from them before we know for sure. Philly added De'Anthony Melton and Montrezl Harrell to their bench in the offseason.
Orlando @ Memphis
This should be a really interesting game as Orlando has a ton of young players, including their top pick Paolo Banchero who they want to get run this preseason. Memphis is the only team playing today who already has a game under their belt in the preseason, but they rested a bunch of their regulars in that game on Saturday including Ja Morant, Steven Adams, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, and Tyus Jones. There's been no word on if these guys return to the lineup tonight, but I wouldn't expect Memphis to play their regulars much this is a team that plays a very deep rotation even during the regular season.
Orlando could be all over the place with minutes, too, since they have so many young guys they are trying to develop. I'd expect Banchero to be a popular play just based on his preseason hype as a lottery pick but there are some other stat stuffers on the Magic who could be in play here, too.
Oklahoma City @ Denver
The Thunder were dealt a huge blow when they lost their top pick, Chet Holmgren, for the season after he was hurt in Summer League and now their star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is dealing with an injury that could prevent him from being able to be in the lineup on opening day. OKC can be a mess for rotations but there's some upside to be had with guys like Josh Giddey and Aleksej Pokusevski (affectionately known as "Poku" going forward).
Denver hasn't announced anyone resting here, but I would be very surprised if we saw any big minutes from their main guys, that's simply never been their style. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are both returning from lost seasons and need to work off the rust and get conditioned, but Denver isn't going to risk having them play more than necessary either. You could make the case for just playing Nikola Jokic for raw points as he's capable of going for 30 DK points even in only 15-16 minutes, especially against this OKC team.
Portland @ L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have technically already played a game, but it wasn't against an NBA team. They played an Israeli team in an exhibition game on Friday and none of the starters took part in that one. That means we should probably see Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and John Wall make their debuts tonight, but I wouldn't hold my breath that any of them play any substantial minutes.
Speaking of comebacks, Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic should be on the floor tonight for the first time since they were shut down last season. This Portland team is looking to reload (not rebuild) with some new pieces around Dame and Nurk (Josh Hart, Jerami Grant, etc...) Unfortunately no news yet as to what either of these coaches plans for minutes, but I like the Portland side more I think.
Sacramento @ L.A. Lakers
There are no Kings on the injury report for tonight, so we could actually see them trot a potential opening-day lineup. That lineup is probably going to be De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Domantas Sabonis, but I am guessing on Murray and Monk since they haven't confirmed the SG or PF spots yet. That's a pretty solid lineup and a very fantasy-friendly group of players too.
The Lakers added Patrick Beverley in the offseason and Dennis Schroeder but should be rolling with the same core of Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, and LeBron James. AD is listed as "probable" as in "probably going to ruin your lineup when he tweaks his back five minutes into the game" (I kid, I kid). But yeah, I wouldn't count on AD or Bron playing any significant minutes here.
DraftKings DFS Top Plays
I am keeping these little blurbs short and sweet and I will try to update later today if I have the time once we get some more information.
Bones Hyland - PG/SG ($4,7,00)
We know Bones can fill up the boxscore and if we are targeting second unit guys tonight (which I am going to be doing for most teams), then he's one of my favorites. I can't see Jamal Murray playing too much coming off the injury.
Josh Giddey - SG ($7,600)
Giddey is a PRA (points, rebounds, assists) machine and likely going to be running the offense tonight with SGA out.
Ben Simmons - SF ($5,100)
I'd like to get ahead of the field here and play some Simmons tonight. He apparently has been cleared to play without restrictions and he's simply far too cheap for his ability to rack up counting stats.
Keegan Murray - SF/PF ($5,000)
Lock and load Murray everywhere, this kid is good! He was the MVP of the Summer League and he has a pure three-point stroke to go along with solid rebounding skills. He can play the three or the four and his versatility is going to play well next to Sabonis. I think I will probably have him in almost every lineup.
Paolo Banchero - PF ($5,300)
Banchero wasn't a top pick for no reason, the kid has an impressive skill set and you'd think that Orlando would want to see what he can do here. 20-25 minutes from him would probably be enough for him to be optimal tonight if he plays well.
Tyrese Maxey - PG ($6,900)
This is assuming that Harden and/or Embiid sit out tonight. Maxey has been drawing raves in camp so far and finished last year playing at a high level.
Nikola Jokic - C ($9,300)
There's enough value that you can still play some studs and Jokic is the best per-minute stud on the slate. This is a great matchup too, as I mentioned earlier. OKC gets drilled by big men and Jokic is the best in the business.
Jusuf Nurkic - C ($7,800)
You can go double center on DK or FanDuel tonight since Jokic is PF-eligible over there. I love playing two big men in lineups, especially guys with such solid, diverse skill sets as Jokic and Nurkic. They were once teammates, ya know, right? Nurk might not be in the same god tier as Jokic, but he's pretty darn good and has played really well with Dame in the lineup during his time in Portland. He doesn't need many minutes to make value.
DraftKings DFS Value Plays
My favorite plays on DraftKings for 5k or less.
Aleksej Pokusevski - PF/C ($4,800) - Poku can fill up the stat sheet, especially with steals and blocks.
Brandon Clarke - PF ($4,800), Santi Aldama - C ($4,000) - Aldama played really well on Saturday, and is pushing for a chance to start in Jaren Jackson's absence.
Georges Niang - PF ($4,400) and Paul Reed - C ($4,000) - Could get a bunch of minutes/shots if the Sixers rest Embiid/Harris.
Kennedy Chandler - PG ($4,400) - Played really well in Morant's absence, and should get plenty of runs late in the game.
Jake LaRavia - PF ($4,300) - Another Grizzly to pay attention to here, the rookie played a good chunk of minutes on Saturday.
Davion Mitchell - PG/SG ($4,800) - We know what Mitchell can do after seeing him thrive last year in the extended run. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he can get buckets and fill it up.
Nic Claxton - C ($4,600) and Dayron Sharpe - C ($4,400) - Are young Nets centers who can post solid numbers in short minutes, especially if Embiid misses.
