DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/30/20) - MLB DFS Lineups

We had four games for an appetizer on Tuesday and now we get the main course with a full day of baseball beginning at 12:00 ET. There were a few teams that went with their usual number two starting pitchers in game one, so there's definitely not a shortage of arms to pick from on today's slate. Like on Tuesday, it's going to be difficult to pinpoint the optimal offense(s) to stack with each team giving their absolute best shots in terms of starting pitching and bullpen matchups. There are certainly more options on today's slate, though, and we'll be targeting a few stacks and one-offs that seems to be in good spots.

I'll be going through some of the best plays at each position on DraftKings with a GPP/tournament lineup build in mind. That's not to say that these players won't work in cash-game lineups, but we're looking to provide high-upside plays for the most part (it's more fun that way, anyway). As a reminder, it is best practice to stack 3-5 hitters from the same team for DFS purposes, so try to envision how the games will play out and build your lineups from there. Utilizing unique lineup combinations (i.e the nine, one, two, and three hitters) is another great way to differentiate.

In this article, I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the DraftKings main slate on 9/30/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel and other sports too.  If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kringstad19

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Trevor Bauer - SP, CIN vs ATL ($9,000)

Excluding Brent Suter's small sample size (13 IP), Trevor Bauer owns almost all of the top metrics among today's pitchers. His 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, and 2.92 SIERA all lead the slate, while his elite 36% K% is only behind Tyler Glasnow (38.2%). He's had an insane six starts with over 32 DK points this season. He holds some degree of risk as he has struggled to get keep the ball on the ground (34.4%) and is an extremely flyball-heavy pitcher (47.8%), which could be an issue against a Braves lineup that finished the year ranked second in ISO (.22&) and sixth in HR/FB (17.9%). However, they do strike out at a high rate (24.4%) and they're only projected for four runs on Wednesday. Bauer is the leading candidate for the NL Cy Young for a reason and there isn't a pitcher on the slate who comes in better form as he has a 46/5 K/BB and just five earned runs over his last five starts. Freeman and Acuna are going to be tough outs (against any pitcher), but give me all of the Bauer with the slate-high ceiling that he possesses.

Tyler Glasnow - SP, TB vs TOR ($8,400)

Glasnow has had a tough time with the longball this year as he's allowing 1.7 HR/9 and has given up at least one homer in 9-of-11 starts this season. That being said, his DFS outlook is sparkling due to an elite 38.2% K% (third in the MLB), 14% SwStr%, and 2.73 xFIP (third in the MLB. He has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game this year, though his 4.08 ERA may scare some people off in a matchup against the Baby Jays on Wednesday. They showed their lack of playoff experience in game one as they knocked in just one run and struck out 12 times in the game one loss. The Blue Jays didn't strike out a ton in the regular season, but Glasnow certainly benefits with the platoon-advantage over many of their best hitters, including Bichette, Hernandez, Grichuk, Guerrero Jr., and Gurriel. They're projected for just 3.3 runs today. Glasnow's strikeout-upside, win-equity, and affordable salary make him an attractive SP1 or SP2 target on today's slate.

Other options: Jose Berrios (MIN vs HOU) $8,200, Masahiro Tanaka (NYY vs CLE) $6,700

DraftKings DFS Infielders

Jesus Aguilar - 1B, MIA vs CHC ($2,900)

Call me crazy, but I don't think very many people are going to be flocking to get any Marlins in their lineups today. That could make this a tidy leverage spot, as opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks is good, but certainly not unbeatable. Hendricks has a 2.88 ERA that's backed up by solid predictive stats, but he has a low 20.3% K%, and his .240 batting average against comes in as the second-worst on the slate. Aguilar is a cheap way to get exposure here as he holds a .353 wOBA and should hit third in the order. He had a quietly great season (.277/.352/.457 with eight homers, 34 RBI, and 31 runs scored) and has three double-digit DK point games in his last six games played.

Justin Turner - 3B, LAD vs MIL ($4,800)

You're going to want to do what you can to get some Dodgers in your lineups as they have the second-highest implied total and arguably the best pitching matchup on the board, though they are quite expensive. The Brewers are rolling with Brent Suter to begin a bullpen game and while Suter has great numbers, he hasn't thrown more than four innings in any of his four starts this season. The Brewers bullpen is also a top-10 unit, but as we saw with the Yankees against Shane Bieber yesterday, the playoffs are a whole different beast. Turner is hitting .400/.438/.867 over his last seven days and has a .384 wOBA for the season.

Austin Nola - C, SD vs STL ($4,500)

Nola is one of the premier offensive catchers in the game as his .352 wOBA (sixth among catchers with at least 120 PA's) and .199 ISO (seventh) make him an appealing DFS target at the position. He projects to hit in the middle of the potent Padres lineup that's currently projected to score a slate-high 4.8 runs. Kwang-hyun Kim is a closer-turned-starter making his first postseason start. He has been really good against right-handed hitters this year, but his inexperience and low K% (16.1%) and SwStr% (7.2%) are sure to play a factor in how today's game plays out.

Other options: Anthony Rizzo (CHC vs MIA) $4,400, Joey Wendle (TB vs TOR) $3,600, Jorge Polanco (MIN vs HOU) $3,300

DraftKings DFS Outfielders

Kyle Schwarber - OF, CHC vs MIA ($3,800)

Schwarber has a great price on him because he simply hasn't been very good this year with an ugly .188/.308/.393 slash line. However, he does has 11 homers and a decent .204 ISO, and his 13.4% walk rate also plays an underrated role in DFS lineup construction. We're not targeting walks in DFS, obviously, but if we can have that kind of a "floor" to go along with a solid chance at a bomb, we take it all day. Sandy Alcantara has been decent through seven starts this year, but he's a RHP and this is a spot where Schwarber can come through for our lineups with the platoon advantage.

Randy Arozarena - OF, TB vs TOR ($3,700)

The 25-year-old has been very impressive since being called up as he has a .281/.382/.641 slash line with seven homers, 11 RBI, 15 runs scored, and four steals over just 64 at-bats. Small sample size be damned, he has an incredible .359 ISO and .439 wOBA. He's hitting especially well as of late (.400/.500/.867 in the last seven days) and gets the platoon-advantage over Blue Jays starter Hyun-Jin Ryu. He has a 1.478 OPS against LHP in his young career and though Ryu has been effective and he limits hard contact well, Arozarena is playing too well to not have interest in him at his price.

Wil Myers - OF, SD vs STL ($5,100)

Myers looks great as a potentially-contrarian pay-up option on today's slate. The Padres have the highest implied total on the board at 4.8 runs and the cleanup hitter Myers will have the platoon-advantage over Kwang-hyun Kim. Myers finished with a .288/.353/.606 slash line, adding 15 homers, 40 RBI, 34 runs scored, and two steals in an impressive campaign. He has a .318 ISO (.328 vs. LHP) and his .400 wOBA ranks 15th in the MLB.

Other options: Tommy Pham (SD vs STL) $3,600, Jason Heyward (CHC vs MIA) $3,800, Nelson Cruz (MIN vs HOU) $4,900

DraftKings DFS Stacks

The Dodgers (4.7-run implied total) and Padres (4.8-run implied total) look like the best, and safest, teams to stack up on today's slate. That being said, they'll likely garner the highest rostership percentage. There's going to be at least one stack that doesn't look great on paper but will pop off and be a difference-maker tonight, as we saw last night with the Yankees against Shane Bieber. Tonight's sneaky-stack call is the Minnesota Twins, who will be in desperation mode as they're looking to snap their record 17-game playoff losing streak against Jose Urquidy. Urquidy has made five starts and has a 4.69 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, 5.40 SIERA, 14.7% K%, and a low 35.6% GB%.

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Good luck in your DFS contests and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @kringstad19!

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