DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/23/20) - MLB DFS Lineups

We have a hefty 14-gamer on Wednesday's DraftKings slate. There are a plethora of top arms to choose from in Bieber, Bauer, Giolito, Grienke, Glasnow, and Maeda, while there are also plenty of offenses to target with a nice mix of terrible and inexperienced pitching at the bottom.

I'll be going through some of the best plays at each position on DraftKings with a GPP/tournament lineup build in mind. That's not to say that these players won't work in cash-game lineups, but we're looking to provide high-upside plays for the most part (it's more fun that way, anyway). As a reminder, it is best practice to stack 3-5 hitters from the same team for DFS purposes, so try to envision how the games will play out and build your lineups from there. Utilizing unique lineup combinations (i.e the nine, one, two, and three hitters) is another great way to differentiate.

In this article, I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the DraftKings main slate on 9/23/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel and other sports too.  If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kringstad19

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Kenta Maeda - SP, MIN vs DET ($9,200)

Maeda is my choice if paying up for an elite arm on today's slate, and it mostly came down to matchups and projecting rostership for tournament builds. Giolito and Bieber are fine, but they're more expensive, they'll be more highly-rostered, and they're pitching against each other. Greinke has alarmingly given up at least three earned runs in six straight starts and I'm not paying up for that, even against the lowly Mariners. Bauer is pitching on three days rest and will likely have his pitch count watched closely, but he's worth a few shots with his 37.4% K% against the Brewers' 26.5% K% (third-highest in the MLB). Game log watchers will see that Maeda went for just 21.7 and 19.9 DK points in his two starts against the Tigers this year, but experienced DFS players look past that and treat each slate with a fresh perspective. I don't know if the baseball community has truly realized how great he has been this year: 2.52 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 3.06 FIP, 2.76 xFIP, 31.6% K%, 16.6% SwStr%, and a slate-low 22.2% Hard%. The matchup couldn't get much better as the Tigers are projected to score just 3.2 runs and have a league-high 27.3% K% on the year. Fire up Maeda with confidence in all formats.

Kyle Hendricks - SP, CHC vs PIT ($8,300)

Hendricks makes for a great mid-range SP2 on today's slate. He has been great in four September starts, notching three wins, a 1.21 ERA, and at least 22.7 DK points in each outing. He has an impressive 2.93 ERA overall, paired with a 0.99 WHIP, 3.28 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, and an average 21.3% K%. He did rack up 10 and seven strikeouts in his last two starts, so he may have figured something out with his put-away pitches. The key part here is the glorious matchup, as the Pirates have firmly established themselves as a bottom-three offense this season and have a 3.2-run implied total. In addition to pitiful AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, and wOBA numbers, they currently sport the 10th-highest team strikeout rate at 24.5%. They've struck out the eighth-most times and hold the lowest AVG, OBP, and SLG against RHP. Hendricks should be able to go deep in this one and has the win-equity and strikeout-upside to pay off his price tag in a major way tonight.

Other options: Trevor Bauer (CIN vs MIL) $9,800, Lucas Giolito (CHW vs CLE) $9,500, Tyler Glasnow (TB vs NYM) $9,300, Dean Kremer (BAL vs BOS) $6,700

DraftKings DFS Infielders

Josh Donaldson - 3B, MIN vs DET ($4,200)

Donaldson is swinging a hot bat and the Twins are projecting to score 5.4 runs on Casey Mize and company, which makes the Bringer of Rain an attractive option on today's slate. He's hitting .278/.435/.611 with two home runs, four walks, two RBI, and four runs scored over the last seven days. He only has a .234 average on the season and his 7.4% barrel % is way down from his 13% career average, but his OBP (.381), SLG (.494), BB% (17.5%), ISO (.260), and wOBA (.386) are still all on the high side. What we love here is the pitching matchup. Mize is a top prospect but he has simply not been good so far with a 6.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.98 FIP, and 1.9 HR/9. He allowed five earned runs through seven innings (two starts) against the Twins this year and while Donaldson hasn't faced him yet, he'll have the platoon-advantage and should hit second in the order.

Christian Walker - 1B, ARI vs TEX ($3,300)

We can pick on some Diamondbacks here against Wes Benjamin, a rookie making his first career start after posting a 4.41 ERA over 16 and 1/3 innings of relief this season. Walker has been hot, posting 12 or more DK points in six of his last 12 games played and holding a .318/.348/.364 slash line over the last 14 days. He's not getting the barrel on the ball this year (5.6% barrels/PA), but he has a .355 wOBA and represents one of the only reliable options on a Diamondbacks team that's projected to score 5.4 runs on Wednesday.

Ketel Marte - 2B/OF, ARI vs TEX ($2,900)

Marte should play in his second game coming off an IL stint and he is criminally underpriced relative to his expected production and high place in the batting order. He's hitting .289/.322/.404 this season and has a top 2% strikeout rate at 10.7%. Southpaw Wes Benjamin will make his first career start on Wednesday and Marte has hit much better against LHP during his six-year career. He has a .426/.438/.617 slash line against LHP this season and a .992 OPS against LHP since 2018 (.798 vs RHP since 2018). He went 1-for-4 last night, but I expect Marte to put up a double-digit DK total at a bargain-bin price tonight.

Other options: Alec Bohm (PHI vs WAS) $3,000, Trea Turner (WAS vs PHI) $5,300, Freddie Freeman (ATL vs MIA) $5,100

DraftKings DFS Outfielders

Marcell Ozuna - OF, ATL vs MIA ($4,900)

Ozuna has been mashing for what seems like forever now, and yet he's still well outside the top-10 outfielders in terms of salary on DraftKings. He was an optimal play last night as he went 4-for-5 with two homers, a double, and five RBI (42 DK points) against the Marlins, the same team he'll face tonight. Ozuna has been impressive every way you slice it. He's slashing .357/.429/.625 with four homers, 17 RBI, and eight runs scored over the last 14 days. He holds a season slash line of .327/.412/.630 to go along with a .303 ISO, .429 wOBA, and a 54.8% hard-hit rate. Rookie Sixto Sanchez has been really good through six starts (2.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.31 FIP), but he's coming off a weak outing as he went just four innings and allowed five earned runs against the Nationals. Keep riding Ozuna at this relatively-affordable salary.

Shogo Akiyama - OF, CIN vs MIL ($3,000)

Akiyama is worth a look as a cheap roster-filler who should hit leadoff for a Reds team that's projected for 4.8 runs today. He's having a tough season overall but his .357 OBP remains high and his 14.3% BB% and 19% K% work well at the leadoff spot. He's also in great form, slashing .324/.468/.351 with four RBI, one double, 10 walks, and two steals in the last 14 days. Akiyama hits slightly better against RHP and he'll get a hittable one today in Adrian Houser, who holds a 5.53 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 4.62 FIP, and a low 17.5% K% on the year. This is a solid spot for Akiyama to exceed value at his price.

Juan Soto - OF, WAS vs PHI ($5,800)

Soto is the fourth-most expensive outfielder on today's slate, but he's the guy I'd want to get to if/when paying up for the position. We all know that Soto is an elite slugger - he holds a .345 average and is leading the entire league in SLG (.683), OBP (.480), wOBA (.469), and wRC+ (194). His ISO (.338) and advanced hitting metrics (see below...my goodness) further confirm his status among the best hitters in the game. He'll get a positive-splits matchup against RHP Zach Eflin, a pitcher that Soto has loved to face as he's 5-for-12 with a double, three RBI, and four walks against in his career. Eflin has good-not-great metrics (4.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.36 FIP) and Soto has an above-average chance at a big game tonight.

Other options: George Springer (HOU vs SEA) $4,600, Jay Bruce (PHI vs WAS) $2,300, Jorge Soler (KC vs STL) $2,700

DraftKings DFS Stacks

The Yankees are the top stack as they have the highest implied total (6.4 runs) and are facing arguably the worst pitcher on the slate in Robbie Ray (7.51 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 6.93 FIP). However, they are really expensive and with at least five ace-type pitchers on the slate, they'll be tough to get to. More affordable stacks that look great today include the Twins (5.5 implied runs), Dodgers (5.1), and Phillies (5.2). The Giants (5.3) and Diamondbacks (5.2) are the two sneaky ultra-cheap stacks to consider today.

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Good luck in your DFS contests and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @kringstad19!

Good luck in your DraftKings contests and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter!

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