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Happy Sunday gang! Hope you all have had a great weekend so far. We have a nice 11-game slate this afternoon, so let's jump right into it and see how we can optimize our DraftKings MLB DFS lineups and sweat a little bit heading into the All-Star Break.
This 11-gamer may turn into a 9-gamer however, as we do see some potential weather issues. The Cubs game in Chicago appears to have a 76% chance of storms, while Cleveland surely looks like an early cancellation, with a 100% chance of storms.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/4/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Luis Castillo - CIN @ MIL ($7,900)
Castillo has been fantastic over the last month, coming in with a 3.84 xFIP over the last 30 days. He matches up well with Milwaukee despite seeing them multiple times this season. You never really know what you're going to see with the Brewers offense, but they've been relatively cold over the past few days so I really like Castillo here.
Pablo Lopez MIA vs ATL ($7,300)
I never prefer to run a pitcher out who had just faced the same team five days ago, but when looking for optimal pitchers on this slate, the mid-tier is better than the top-tier in my opinion. Lopez comes into this one with a 3.50 xFIP and a 30.6% K-rate over the last 30 days, and will be facing a Braves lineup that just lost Ronald Acuna to an unfortunate ACL injury.
Other Options: Brandon Woodruff ($10,000), Jose Berrios ($8,000)
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Sean Murphy - C, OAK @ TEX ($4,200)
The catching position is thin today and while I usually pay down for a catcher, today I'll dig into the mid-tier. I really like the Athletics stack today and I think Sean Murphy fits in well. Murphy has had a quiet first half but has done a decent enough job of hitting the long ball. He also sees the ball well from Allard, going 2-4 in a small sample size.
Alex Kiriloff - 1B/OF, MIN vs DET ($3,400)
Another guy myself and many others continuously look to stack against, Wily Peralta takes the mound against the Twins today. Kiriloff will likely bat in the three spot today, and comes into this one with a +44.4% hard-to-soft contact ratio.
Luis Arraez - 2B/3B, MIN vs DET ($3,100)
Another cheap Twin who will most likely be batting out of the leadoff spot, Arraez comes into this one with a +32.1% hard-to-soft contact ratio this season.
Matt Chapman - 3B, OAK @ TEX ($5,500)
After a slow start to this season, Chapman has really turned it around. He comes into this one with a 36.4% hard contact rate and looks to continuously show positive regression, especially against left-handed pitching. He'll likely be in the cleanup spot of the A's stack we're looking at today.
Jorge Polanco - 2B/SS, MIN vs DET ($4,100)
Polanco comes into today with a +32% hard-to-soft contact rate against right-handed pitching. It's unfortunate that he had moved down in the order, but in our Twins stack today that likely shouldn't matter as I expect them to rough up Peralta.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Nelson Cruz - OF, MIN vs DET ($5,200)
The ageless wonder is still at it. Even at 41 years old, Nelly is coming into today's game hitting .304 with 18 long-balls on the year. He pairs that with a .611 wOBA + ISO against righties, and will look to smash a few balls over the wall today, anchoring our Twins stack.
Brian Goodwin - OF, CWS @ BAL ($4,400)
Goodwin has been absolutely mashing for Chicago. It's a shame his price has gone up, but it's gone up for good reason. He's got a +47% hard-to-soft contact rate against righties this year to pair with an incredible .921 wOBA + ISO. He's still too cheap for the production he's showing right now, and gets a plus matchup with Baltimore's Spenser Watkins.
Ramon Laureano - OF, OAK @ TEX ($4,900)
Laureano hasn't had the contact numbers over the last month that we typically look for in a guy we'd like to roster, but for someone who will take the leadoff spot in a positive matchup, I'll certainly look to get him in there. He's also seen Allard a few times, going 2-9 in a small sample size, but I think he gets the job done today.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Oakland Athletics vs. Kolby Allard
- Minnesota Twins vs. Wily Peralta
- Chicago White Sox vs. Spenser Watkins
- Cleveland Indians vs. Carlos Hernandez
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