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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/24/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
DraftKings sliced this Saturday slate almost right down the middle. We have seven early games, six prime-time games, and a small two game short slate to keep us occupied today. This serves to water down both slates a little bit. That's not to say that there aren't a couple of good options out there. The early slate is a little rougher on pitching, and we may have to dig a little deeper than we had planned on. Thunder Dan will help you out on the early slate. This will cover the six night games only.
We have Drew Smyly coming off the DL and the (alleged) best pitcher on the slate for the evening slate. It looks like rain will be a problem in Baltimore in the later innings. This game likely wont go all nine if the first six don't go by quickly. There could be some rain in Atlanta as well. It wont be enough to take the entire game out, but a mid-game delay is possible.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/24/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Kevin Gausman - SF vs. MIA ($7,600)
Gausman has been a different pitcher since he got the hell out of Baltimore, and it's not just because Camden Yards is a hitter haven. The main knock on Gausman is that he doesn't rack up a lot of strikeouts, and this year really isn't any different. The 23 strikeouts in 25.2 innings is nothing to write home about and he sometimes gets a little wild, but this is the Marlins we're talking about. They are hitting a dismal .221 against right handed pitching with a 28.1% strikeout rate compared to a 9.6% walk rate. Considering that Gausman is $3,400 cheaper than Bauer and the Braves are expensive, I'm choosing to pay down so I can attack with bats.
Pablo Lopez - P, MIA at SF ($6,900)
Yes, I like the pitchers going against each other. Aside from assuring that you wont get the double dubs achievement, it's not a bad strategy when pitching is so weak beyond the one true ace on this slate. Generally, the rule is to not use Lopez on the road. His home/road splits are egregious. However, Lopez has never pitched in Oracle Park. It's very good to pitchers. Just ask Madison Bumgarner, among others. Lopez has only allowed one run in two career starts against the Giants, one coming last week in Miami. Lopez is getting more strikeouts this year thanks to a lot more movement on his cutter. The whiff percentage has gone from 5.6% last year to 22.2% this season. So long as Lopez is having success with that cutter, the strikeouts will still be there. The Giants are striking out 32% of the time against RHP this year and are only hitting .216 as a team on the season. Lopez is a low-risk proposition here.
Other Options: Trevor Bauer ($11,000), Aaron Nola ($8,800), Chris Bassitt ($7,300)
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Carson Kelly - C, ARI at Drew Smyly, ATL ($4,600)
Kelly has double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games, four of the last five, and six of the last eight. He's on an absolute tear right now. On top of that, Kelly hits lefties 78 points better than righties and has 11 homers in just 165 at-bats against southpaws. Don't be shocked if Kelly goes deep yet again. Drew Smyly has given up three homers in just 11 innings this year.
Matt Olson - 1B, OAK vs. Tom Eshelman, BAL ($4,700)
Olson is in the 85th percentile or better in every StatCast metric aside from walk rate this year. His exit velocity and barrel percentages are up this year as well. Tom Eshelman doesn't have any crazy splits or anything like that, but he has allowed 19 homers in 70.2 major league innings. He's likely to give up one or two here, and considering Olson is tattooing the ball so far this year, I'll place my chips on him.
Nick Solak - 2B, TEX at Dallas Keuchel, CWS ($4,700)
Keuchel's splits have become more pronounced in recent years. He's a junkballer who's junk is getting a lot more hittable, especially by righties. 18 of the 21 homers he has allowed since the beginning of 2019 have been to right handed batters. Solak is one of those guys with extreme splits as well. He hammers lefties to the tune of a .312 average. Solak doesn't have a ton of power, but his success against lefties gives us a high floor even if he doesn't take Keuchel deep.
Manny Machado - 3B, SD at Trevor Bauer, LAD ($4,500)
I don't often use BvP stats solely for a pick, but when I do, it's because of lines like this. Machado is 12-19 in his career against Bauer with four homers, six RBI, and seven runs scored. Lock and load. Even if you play Bauer, I would still run Machado against him. He's the only bat that's a real threat to Bauer tonight, but this kind of domination is too much to look past.
Nick Maton - SS, PHI at Antonio Senzatela, COL ($2,700)
Maton or Brad Miller will pick up the start here, and honestly, both are good, cheap ways to get a piece of this Philly offense. Surprisingly enough Senzatela has not allowed a home run in three home starts this season, but we know Coors Field doesn't play like Coors Field in April. However, it's going to be warm and sunny in Denver today. This could be the day they start flying out. Maton is 5-12 in his brief career so far with two of those hits coming at Coors last night. I really can't argue with this price.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - OF, ATL vs. Madison Bumgarner, ARI ($6,400)
Acuna costs more than three pitchers tonight, but he's likely worth it. He destroys every pitch that Madison Bumgarner throws, especially with his fastball velocity barely hitting 90 anymore. Acuna is in the 99th percentile of xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG this year. His xISO is 97th percentile. Those numbers get even more gaudy against lefties. His exit velocity is up 3.2 MPH so far this year. Acuna has 21 homers in just 281 at-bats against lefties in his career. I'll say that he gets his first off of MadBum tonight.
Adolis Garcia - OF, TEX at Dallas Keuchel, CWS ($3,500)
Garcia has four homers in his last four games, including two last night in the Windy City. I've made it clear that I don't trust Keuchel's stuff anymore. Righties are hitting nearly .300 against him since the beginning of 2018. Add in a guy like Garcia who has almost single-handedly kick-started the Texas offense for less than the price of most starters at every other position and you see why this is potentially an elite play.
Guillermo Heredia - OF, ATL vs. Madison Bumgarner, ARI ($2,900)
Yes, we all know how friendly the Braves' new digs are to lefty pitchers. I don't care. MadBum is barely a pitcher anymore. Everyone one of his pitches this season rates as below average. Last year, his barrel percentage was more than double the previous worst against him. On top of that, righties are absolutely destroying him since the end of the 2018 season. The fastball velocity is up a notch from last year, but it's not enough to keep hitters from making hard contact. The hard hit percentage this year is 46.6%, the worst mark of his career. Guillermo Heredia's average is 59 points higher against lefties. This is a cheap way to get exposure to a Braves lineup that could make MadBum's already bad 8.68 ERA this year even worse.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Atlanta Braves right handers vs. Madison Bumgarner
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Antonio Senzatela
- Sneaky Stack: Texas Rangers vs. Dallas Keuchel
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