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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 10/1/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Friday and happy October, Rotoballers! It's the first day of the month, but, sadly, it's the final Friday of the regular season. I've had a great time writing about the DraftKings picks all season on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Hopefully, you've made more money than me because I seem to have a rather debilitating tilting problem that's left me just outside the green line most of the season. I'll still be around for the postseason, but the slates will be smaller and not as much to dig into from an analysis standpoint. It's been a fantastic year, so thanks for reading when you did, and let's finish the regular season with a bang!
Fourteen games populate the featured slate tonight, and there are a lot of arms to sift through as we pick our top two hurlers. First, there's the bizarre pricing of Adbert Alzolay ($9,800). He's a strict stay away for me. Second, watch out for rotation changes. I woke up this morning, and Brandon Bielak was pitching for Houston, but they've changed it overnight to have Framber Valdez take the mound as they set up their postseason rotation. The entire weekend could be like this, so keep your ear to the ground and your eyes on social media in case there are any strange lineups on the horizon.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 10/1/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It's also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, find me on Twitter and ask away.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Sean Manaea - LHP, OAK at HOU ($9,100)
Manaea faces the Astros for the second consecutive start tonight, and DFS managers hope it can be just as successful as his first. On Sunday, the A's southpaw twirled a gem with seven innings of one-run baseball with eight strikeouts for 26.8 fantasy points. That start followed a couple of rough outings versus the Royal and Mariners, so it was encouraging to see Manaea get back on track. He's been pitching well in the second half but has had a bit of bad luck as his 3.94 ERA doesn't match up with his 3.59 xFIP or 3.66 SIERA. Also, depending on the Astros lineup, I would be prepared for a massive swing in Manaea's roster percentage. Houston locked up the AL West crown on Thursday and could trot out a squad of backups to give their regular guys a rest. This would only increase Manaea's DFS prospects but could bring some chalk along with it.
Ranger Suarez - LHP, PHI at MIA ($8,800)
I am extremely curious where Ranger Suarez is drafted in the 2022 season-long leagues because he has been outstanding in the second half of the 2021 campaign. Since the All-Star break, the Phillies lefty has a 1.69 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a manageable 24 percent strikeout rate. Last time out, the southpaw threw his first complete game against the Pirates for 40.9 fantasy points. It marked the fourth game where he pitched at least six innings and seventh with at least five strikeouts. The Marlins went down swinging 27.2 percent of the time to lefties in September, and I expect Suarez to finish his breakout campaign decisively.
Other options: Shane McClanahan at NYY ($9,700), Lance Lynn vs. DET ($9,500), Tylor Megill at ATL ($8,900), Steven Matz vs. BAL ($8,700), Jon Gray at ARI ($7,700)
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Yan Gomes - C, OAK at Framber Valdez ($3,700)
One of my favorite strategies this season has been to build my lineup except for my catcher and then live with what I can. The position is the most favorable to punt, in my opinion, and there's always a value play to be had if you are the type of player who can switch their lineups around at the last moment. Tonight, my catcher will be Yan Gomes against the Astros. Houston is rolling out Brandon Bielak to open their victory-parade-like weekend after claiming their fourth AL West crown in five seasons. He's gotten a start in three of his last four games and has been there for the A's this season when Sean Murphy ($3,200) has struggled. Of course, if Gomes sits, I would pivot to Murphy as another value option behind the plate. Gomes has a hit in eight of his last nine games, and that type of floor is all I need to put a backstop on my radar.
Frank Schwindel - 1B, CHC at Dakota Hudson ($3,200)
Matt Duffy - 2B/3B, CHC at Dakota Hudson ($2,100)
For the final time in 2021, I'm rolling out my favorite second-half hitter in Frank Schwindel. He's been a rock among my DFS lineups since the All-Star break, and I'm going to miss the days of snagging him in the lows $3,000 range next year. In September, the Cubs' first baseman slashed .357/.405/.625 with seven home runs, 22 RBI, and two stolen bases over 26 games. Meanwhile, his .432 weighted on-base average was the fourth-highest among qualified first basemen ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Pete Alonso.
At the other infield spot, Matt Duffy came through time and time again for the Cubs during their rebuilding second-half run. In 23 September contests, the infielder had a .890 OPS, but it's risen to .919 since Sep. 19. Since that date, Duffy has hit five runs, five doubles, four RBI, and a stolen base. Duffy and Schwindel may not be part of the Cubs' long-term plans, but they've done enough to keep their bats on the roster for at least the 2022 season.
Manny Machado - 3B, SD at Anthony DeSclafani ($4,900)
The San Diego Padres have had an epic fall from grace since the All-Star break, but Machado has been a stud the entire season. Over 151 games, the five-time All-Star has 92 runs, 28 home runs, 103 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .840 OPS. Recently, he's picked up the pace despite the Padre's troubles, and he's one of the cheaper high-profile players on Friday's slate. Over his last 10 games, Machado is slashing .324/.390/.649 with four home runs and 10 RBI for 10.8 fantasy points per game. There are seven third basemen priced at $5,000 or higher, and Machado offers a value play for the same kind of production at a cheaper price tag.
J.P. Crawford - SS, SEA vs. Jose Suarez ($4,100)
We are entering the 160th regular-season game, and Seattle is tied with the Boston Red Sox for the second AL Wild Card spot. I don't think the most optimistic Seattle fan would've thought this to be possible in 2021. Maybe 2022, hopefully, 2023, but not 2021! Regardless, it's a great story for the final weekend of the baseball season, and I hope they pull it off.
One of the players at the center of their late-season upswing is J.P. Crawford. He's the table-setter for a Mariners team with a 9-1 record in their last 10, and Crawford is thriving in the same stretch. Since Sep. 20, the shortstop is hitting .378 with eight runs, six doubles, a home run, and four RBI. The surprising power is propelling him to a 9.8 FPPG rate, and, at $4,100, he is one of my favorite bats to roster among Friday's 14 games.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Luis Robert - OF, CWS vs. Wily Peralta ($5,800)
The White Sox are extremely dangerous in the playoffs if Luis Robert continues to smack the ball around like he has this year. Since returning from an early-season hip injury, the outfielder is slashing .365/.400/.635 with 30 runs, 33 RBI, 13 doubles, and 11 home runs. In September, his .436 wOBA only trails Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He is performing at an elite level when elite players are supposed to perform their best. In his last six games, Robert has six extra-base hits, and I can see him making it 7-for-7 on Friday.
Byron Buxton - OF, MIN at Jon Heasley ($4,700)
After a summer plagued by injuries, Byron Buxton seems to have finally returned to his electric self in the season's final month. In September, the outfielder sported a .912 OPS and a .313 ISO to support 23 runs, seven doubles, eight home runs, 11 RBI, and four stolen bases. That's right, folks: Buxton had a tremendous final month again. I'm sure it'll be enough to convince the season-long crowd he needs another high draft pick in 2022, but for us DFS managers, we are going to enjoy the season-ending ride and roster Buxton as he produces tons of fantasy points over the final weekend.
Austin Hays - OF, BAL at Steven Matz ($3,600)
I wrote up Austin Hays a couple of weeks ago, and he came through with a bomb, so I'm going back to well against left-hander Steven Matz. The Orioles outfielder has been a surprising source of power in the second half. His 13 home runs in the second half are tied for the 15th-most among all outfielders. Yes, it's not as flashy as top-five or top-10, but he's well worth a flier at $3,600. He's only bagged one round-tripper in his last 10 games, but there are four doubles mixed in there with the single home run. So, the power is still there, but the ball hasn't cleared the park in recent games. I think that changes tonight, and Hays adds his 23rd home run of the season to kick off the weekend.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (Wily Peralta, RHP)
- Game stack: Tampa Bay Rays (Shane McClanahan, LHP) at New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes Jr., LHP)
- Sneaky stack: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (Dakota Hudson, RHP)
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