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After an event that might not have been everyone's cup of tea in the Dell Match Play, we're back to the normal stroke-play grind this week with the Valero Texas Open.
In a nutshell, the 'Core Four' represents my final thoughts for the week's event. It is a culmination of my research throughout the week and builds upon my other RotoBaller articles for the week's DraftKings slate. The core will usually be spread across different DraftKings price points, but every week in PGA DFS is different and this article will reflect that by trying to give you an overall outlook of how the slate is shaping up and how I'm viewing the tournament by Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Valero Texas Open
Hello friends! Thanks for joining me once again here at the Core Four. Last week's Dell Match Play isn't everyone's favorite event, as some people just can't get into the stark difference in format from a regular tournament. We did give it the old college try in this article and I think we did pretty darn well considering how difficult the Match Play is to handicap. Three of our Core Four selections advanced out of group play (Alex Noren had a win or go home match to advance from his group, but fell to Corey Conners), with Kevin Kisner making it all the way to the finals for our squad, while Brooks Koepka advanced to the quarterfinals and Tyrrell Hatton faded out in the Sweet 16. All in all, a week that I'm very proud of given the volatile nature of match play.
With the unique match play event behind us and the year's first major championship looming just a week ahead, the Valero Texas Open feels like - to borrow an NFL term - a true "sandwich game". It's a spot where we have a chance to capitalize on our DFS opponents that might be already looking ahead to the Masters. The same can fairly be said of some of the golfers that will be teeing it up this week at TPC San Antonio, as a player's motivations the week before a major championship certainly deserve more scrutiny and consideration than most "normal" weeks on the schedule. Is a player knocking the rust off after an injury? Fine-tuning his game in preparation for Augusta National? Already qualified for the Masters or making a last-ditch attempt to grab a coveted invite? These factors add a few more ingredients to our usual PGA DFS recipe and were considerations when constructing this week's Core Four.
While my Core Four is the group of players I will be leaning on most heavily this week, they aren't the only golfers in my player pool. I do recommend that you check out the "Just Missed List" at the bottom of the page for ideas that can help you round out your own player pools!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
The Core Four
Corey Conners - DraftKings: $9,800
Both Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth earned serious consideration for my top spot this week. Though I'll have exposure to both, Corey Conners just makes too much sense as a starting point for me on this slate. He'll undoubtedly be a popular option, but it is with very good reason.
After a bit of a sluggish start to the year, Conners appears to be back in the white-hot ball-striking form that we all know and love. He made a deep, semi-final run in last week's Dell Match Play and gained a combined 15.9 strokes T2G in his two prior stroke-play events (API & The Players)...numbers that are more indicative of his long-term form (first in this week's field SG: Ball Striking over last 100 rounds) than what we saw at the outset of this year.
The Canadian has experienced a huge amount of success at the Valero Texas Open, with his Cinderella win in 2019 as a Monday qualifier being the most well-known. That victory is sandwiched between a T26 ('18) and a T14 ('21) on his Valero resume. We can attribute that success to his truly elite ball-striking ability both with the driver and the irons. Total Driving is a skill I'm weighing heavily this week and Conners grades out third in this Valero field in Good Drives Gained over both long (last 50 rounds) and short-term (last 12 rounds) metrics. We also shouldn't underestimate the importance of wedge play this week and while Conners grades out seventh in Overall Proximity (last 100 rounds), he specifically ranks third in this week's field in Proximity from 100-125 yards over the same time frame.
Chris Kirk - DraftKings: $9,400
Those of you that have read my content or listened to my podcast regularly probably know that I'm a Chris Kirk truther. Our faith was rewarded during the Florida Swing with impeccable outings at both the Honda (T7) and the API (T5).
Unfortunately, Kirk's recent play has sent his DK price tag into the stratosphere. We've routinely seen him priced in the $7k range throughout the year, but his $9.4k price tag for the Valero dwarfs his previous 2022 high of $7.9k. It's not an easy pill to swallow, however, it may well be justified in this particular event.
In addition to the UGA alum's excellence during the Florida stretch (he gained an average of 5.16 strokes T2G over those three starts), he also possesses some eye-opening history at TPC San Antonio. Kirk has recorded four top-13 finishes across seven career Valero starts, with a pair of top-eight results coming over his last three trips to San Antonio ('21 &'18).
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Kirk's recent play is just how good he's been in every facet of the game. He's gained strokes T2G in every start of 2022 - even the ones in which he's missed the cut - and he grades out first in this week's field in SG: Total over the last 12 rounds. In fact, outside of standing 29th in SG: Putting, Kirk ranks 14th or better among this week's field in every major strokes gained category (SG: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, OTT, APP, & ATG)! While we normally look for a couple of statistical bright spots as a reason why we might like a player for our DFS lineups, this guy is simply doing everything really well at the moment.
Kevin Streelman - DraftKings: $8,700
Streels is, admittedly, a pretty vanilla player and not necessarily a guy that gets our blood pumping when we click on his name. However, boring can be effective, and that's certainly been the case for the veteran at TPC San Antonio.
Streelman has logged top-eight finishes in each of his last two Valero appearances ('19 & '18), with three additional top-25s across his seven career starts in this event. He also owns a perfect 7-for-7 record when it comes to made cuts on this week's Oaks Course and has compiled a 70.4 career scoring average in the Valero.
In addition to the sterling course history, the veteran's form has spiked as of late. He navigated the Florida Swing beautifully, posting top-25 finishes at both the Honda and Players before gaining 7.4 strokes T2G en route to a T7 at the Valspar in his most recent start. The performance at Copperhead was his best of the year from tee-to-green.
Brendan Steele - DraftKings: $7,600
As is to be expected in a tournament such as this, the reliability of our options takes a noticeable dip as we move below the $8k benchmark on the DK salary scale. With that volatility in mind, Brendan Steele represents a clear standout for me at $7.6k.
A player with extensive TPC San Antonio experience and a track record of success, Steele won the Valero in his 2011 tournament debut and has gone on to make the cut in eight of his nine subsequent starts at TPC San Antonio with a pair of additional top-10 showings across them.
He's an undeniably streaky player that's prone to playing really well (or really badly) in spurts. It feels like his arrow is pointing up at the moment though, as he grades out second in this week's field in Good Drives Gained over his last 12 rounds and exits the Florida Swing with a pair of very nice finishes (T26 API & T13 The Players). Steele has gained a combined 19.6 strokes T2G over his last two and this Oaks Course layout offers a comfortable environment for him to extend his recent run of sharp form.
The "Just Missed" List
CORE CONSIDERATIONS
- Rory McIlroy
- Jordan Spieth
- Gary Woodland
- Adam Hadwin
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Patton Kizzire
- J.J. Spaun
GPP OPTIONS
- Si Woo Kim
- Mav McNealy
- Tony Finau
- Luke List
- Mito Pereira
- Matt Kuchar
- KH Lee
- Lanto Griffin
- Martin Laird
- Richard Bland
- Matt NeSmith
- Beau Hossler
SUB-$7K GPP/DART OPTIONS
- Adam Svensson
- Austin Smotherman
- Greyson Sigg
- Doc Redman
- Trey Mullinax
- Henrik Stenson
- Bill Haas
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