RADIO
It's Christmas Day, and as is tradition, the NBA is treating us with one of their best lineup of games of the entire season. The Suns-Nuggets matchup rates out as the top game to target in my K-Grade model (shown below), but there are lots of spots to target as the Mavericks, Grizzlies, and Celtics are also in favorable spots. We have some teams we can extract value from as Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry remain out while LeBron James, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart, and Draymond Green are among the key players listed as questionable. Let's get to it.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 12/25/22. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Luka Doncic, vs. LAL (FD: $11,800, DK: $12,500)
It feels like Doncic has to have a ceiling game to reach and exceed value at his high salary, but he only needs 62.5 DK points to 5x value, and that's just above his season average of 61.6 DK points. He spiked for 88 DK points on November 29 (vs. GSW) and put up 82 DK points (vs. HOU) on Friday, and that's the kind of output we're looking for out of him on a slate jam-packed with studs at every position.
The reason I have optimism in Doncic dropping another 80+ burger is due to his favorable game environment and matchup against the Lakers. They'll be without their premier interior defender in Anthony Davis, and they were already allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing teams and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Fire up Luka as a primary spend-up option on today's slate.
Spencer Dinwiddie, vs. LAL (FD: $6,500, DK: $6,500)
Two Dallas guards in the same article? When you're playing against the Lakers, anything is possible. We need to save money if we're going to get to Doncic (and/or Jokic), and there is room for a second player to exceed salary-based expectations against this porous Lakers defense. Dinwiddie has been somewhat disappointing this season (16.5/3.2/5.1 on 46% shooting), but he has started to turn a corner as he has jumped to a 21.4% usage rate and a 0.98 FPTS/min rate over the last four weeks.
He also holds a decent 42% mark from three-point range, which should play against a team that's allowing the fourth-best shooting percentage (51.3%) and fifth-best three-point percentage (41.7%) over their last three games.
Also consider: Tim Hardaway Jr., Patrick Beverley, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Al Horford, vs. MIL (FD: $5,000, DK: $5,300)
It's challenging to pick out one pay-up option at forward today as Antetokounmpo, Tatum, James, Jaylen Brown, and Julius Randle make up a very strong upper-echelon of players to choose from. I want to get to the back-to-back (-to-back?) MVP at his palatable salary instead, so we're going with mid-range and value picks at forward today. Big Al Horford has struggled with injuries, inconsistent playing time, and subpar performance for much of the season, but he's at a cheap salary on DraftKings and fills a need at an ugly position.
He turned back the clock with a 36-minute, 47.75 DK point performance on Friday against the Wolves, and while he probably won't see that workload again, we'd love to get around 25 DK points out of him, and he could spike for more as the Celtics will need his size against an imposing Bucks frontcourt.
Donte DiVincenzo, vs. MEM (FD: $6,000, DK: $6,400) If Draymond Green sits
DiVincenzo projects as a decent dart-throw at his elevated salary if Green is ruled in, but I have a lot of interest in him and Jonathan Kuminga if Green is to be ruled out. The former Buck has played his role well this season, and his rates are solid at a 17.2% usage rate and 1.02 FPTs/min with Curry, Wiggins, and Green off the floor this season. He's going to see around 30 minutes of playing time regardless of Green's status and he has put up between 32 and 44 DK points in three of his last four games, so it feels likely that he hits value in a favorable game environment against the Grizzlies.
Memphis sports the fifth-best defensive rating in the league, but they play at the ninth-fastest pace (GSW ranks #2 in pace), and they give up a ton of production to opposing small forwards (fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing SFs) and shooting guards (seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing SGs).
Also consider: Draymond Green, Julius Randle, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tobias Harris
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic, vs. PHX (FD: $12,200, DK: $12,000)
Jokic and Doncic have the two highest ceilings on that slate, so I recommend getting to one (or both) of them today. Daily fantasy basketball can be a simple game, sometimes. Jokic has produced outputs of 80.5, 82, and 95.75 DK points over his last six games, and no other player on this slate comes close to that level of insane production.
The Suns rank middle-of-the-pack against centers as they allow the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position, but this game rates out as the most targetable matchup on the slate due to its high implied total (231.5 points) and both offenses being among the most successful in the league (Denver ranks third in offensive efficiency; Phoenix ranks second). The Suns are stingy on defense and especially against centers, but Jokic is as matchup-proof as they come and we should all know this by now. See below for Joker's last five games against the Suns:
3/24/22: 28 points, six rebounds, six assists, three steals
10/20/21: 27 points, 13 rebounds, two assists, two steals
6/13/21: 22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, one block
6/11/21: 32 points, 20 rebounds, 10 assists, one block (!!)
6/9/21: 24 points, 13 rebounds, six assists, one steal
Also consider: Isaiah Hartenstein, Thomas Bryant, Robert Williams III, James Wiseman, Mitchell Robinson
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