Don't Stop Believing in Clyde Edwards-Helaire

At this point, it’s no mystery the Kansas City Chiefs made a mistake when they took Clyde Edwards-Helaire over Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift. That much is crystal clear. Despite that, however, it doesn’t mean Edwards-Helaire is worthless in fantasy football.

He has a lot of things working against him and not all of them are directly related to what he brings or doesn’t bring to the field. The perception of CEH after having been selected ahead of Taylor and Swift only hurts him. That draft history only exaggerates his somewhat poor performance over the last two years. In reality, it doesn’t matter. The other thing working against him is injuries. He’s struggled to stay on the field his first two years and prior to the 2021 season he had offseason gallbladder surgery, which decreased his weight all the way down to 160.

This is by no means an excuse for his on-field performance, but context is important. It’s even more important to be able to block out what doesn’t matter, like the fact that Taylor and Swift were selected behind him. It’s irrelevant. Fantasy managers can get stuck in this “you’ve burned me in the past, so I’m not drafting you again” mentality, but we should never want to close doors on any player. We should only close doors on prices. CEH in the third round? Bad choice. CEH in the seventh round? Okay, now we’re talking. Let’s talk about why the third-year running back isn’t someone to completely write off. At least, not quite yet.

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Third Time's the Charm

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is currently being drafted as the RB28 on Underdog and is ranked here at Rotoballer as the RB31. In Underdog drafts, fantasy managers are able to select him in the seventh round. This is a reminder that every player has their pros and cons.

The reason we should be in or out on a particular player isn’t based on their pros and cons alone, but rather on if their pros and cons are cost-efficient at their current ADP. Forget about the, “do you like CEH” question. Instead ask, “do you like CEH in the seventh round?”

During his rookie season and despite having absolutely no off-season to speak of due to Covid-19 restrictions, Andy Reid showed a ton of confidence in CEH right off the bat and you know what, for the most part, he delivered. In his first games in the NFL, the former LSU product racked up 107 carries and 31 targets. We’re talking 17.8 carries per game and 5.1 targets. Over a 17-game season, that’s a pace of 302 carries and 86 targets. During those first six weeks, CEH was the RB11 in half-PPR.

We all remember what happened next. He struggled at the goal line and when Le’Veon Bell was cut by the Jets, the Chiefs pounced on him and CEH’s workload shifted quite drastically. Despite Bell’s involvement and CEH missing the final three games of the season due to hip and ankle injuries, he still finished with 181 carries for 803 rushing yards. He also earned 54 targets and caught 36 of them for 297 yards. He scored five total touchdowns in 13 games.

His per game averages for his rookie season, if he had been healthy for all 16 games, would’ve looked like this: 223 carries, 988 rushing yards, 66 targets, 44 receptions, 366 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. Certainly, doesn’t sound all that bad, does it? He was on pace, over 13 games, in his rookie season for 1,354 scrimmage yards.

He finished as the RB22 in PPG in half-PPR scoring, which under most circumstances is a decent rookie season. Unfortunately, Jonathan Taylor blew up and fantasy managers had unrealistic expectations of CEH and were, for some reason, expecting Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. So, was his rookie season bad, or were the expectations just completely outrageous?

Going into the 2021 season, there was optimism around his fantasy prospects. Bell was gone, he was entering his sophomore season, and was viewed as the clear lead back. Unfortunately, CEH had gallbladder surgery in the offseason, which dropped his weight down to 160. Another offseason taken away and those are important for young players.

Still, through the first four weeks of the season, he once again operated as the primary back for the Chiefs. He averaged 14.5 carries and 2 targets per game over that stretch and averaged 85 total scrimmage yards. He was the RB24 in half-PPR scoring during that time, but in Week 5 he suffered an MCL sprain which forced him to miss the next five games. When he did return, Reid took a committee approach between CEH and Darrel Williams.

He finished the 2021 season with 119 carries, 517 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He also had 23 targets, 19 receptions, 129 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He played in 10 games. His on-pace stats over 17-games were 202 carries, 879 yards, and 7 touchdowns on the ground. 39 targets, 32 receptions, 219 yards, and 3 touchdowns were his pacing stats in the passing game. He finished as the RB27 in half-PPR PPG.

Looking forward to 2022, this will be CEH’s first “normal” training camp since entering the league. The Chiefs let Darrel Williams walk in free agency, but resigned Jerrick McKinnon and brought in Ronald Jones from the Buccaneers.

Based on the skillset of these three running backs, fantasy managers should expect Jones and CEH to handle the bulk of the carries. Jones could likely be the short-yardage and primary goal-line RB. McKinnon and CEH will share the bulk of the receiving work, which includes third-downs and the two-minute drill.

- In the last 2 yrs, there were 7 games where Darrel Williams played 25% or less snaps.
- In those 7 games, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 32 targets (4.57 per game).
- Pace of 78 targets over 17-games
- Williams & McKinnon are gone

CEH is looking at his biggest target share ever.

— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 7, 2022

It really shouldn’t be a hot take to say this could be CEH’s best season to date. The bar isn’t too high. He’s been the RB22 and RB27 in PPG his first two seasons, but if he’s more in the passing game than he’s ever been, the possibility is there. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be an RB1, but at his RB28 ADP, he doesn’t need to be.

Since Mahomes has become the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have directed, on average, 108 targets to their running backs each season. The RBs had 112 targets in 2021, 117 (2020), 117 (2019), and 103 (2018). If we project 115 targets to the RBs in 20222 and CEH has a 55% share of that, he’d finish with 63 targets. That would leave McKinnon with 40 (35%) and Jones with 12 (10%).

Over the last four years, the Chiefs have averaged 331 RB carries per season. If we project CEH to have a 50% share of the carries, he’d finish with 166 carries. Giving Jones 40% would mean he’d have 132 carries and McKinnon would have 33.

Using CEH’s career averages, based on these projections, he’d finish with 730 rushing yards. He’s scored on 2.67% of his carries, which means he’d have roughly 4-5 touchdowns on the ground. His receiving stats based off of 63 targets would equal 45 receptions, 347 yards, and 2-3 touchdowns.

Total-wise, we’re talking around 1,075-1,100 scrimmage yards and 6-8 touchdowns to go along with 45 receptions. In half-PPR, that’s roughly 172.5 half-PPR points. Oddly enough, that’s exactly what Darrel Williams finished with last season when he finished as the RB22.

While that’s a more modest projection, below is another set of projections for CEH that is a bit more optimistic. However, both the projection below and above both entail CEH outplaying his current RB28 ranking.

Kansas City Chiefs projections

•Mahomes dips sans Hill
•CEH team RB1 but RoJo looming
•JuJu bounces back to WR2
•Skyy Moore team WR4 in PPG
•Kelce efficiency down, volume up. TE1 overall regardless pic.twitter.com/PP6HHlSxRh

— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) July 4, 2022

With Jones and McKinnon in Kansas City, there are a few questions about how this RB group will be used. It’s in the range of outcomes where CEH becomes more of the lead back instead of splitting carries and targets with Jones and McKinnon, respectively, fairly evenly. After all, he’s been in the Chiefs’ offense for three years.

While it’s fair for fantasy managers to be apprehensive about CEH, the low-risk cost alleviates some of those concerns. He’s still connected to a top-five scoring offense, which offers plenty of upside. The Chiefs re-made their offensive line last offseason and should pay dividends to the RBs this season. It’s a unit that could be a top-10 group. Edwards-Helaire looks to be in line for his biggest target share of his career and we know, targets are more valuable than carries.

His current price tag, after two years of being much too high, is finally in a good spot. It provides upside for fantasy managers who want to wait on running back a little bit. Grabbing CEH in the 7^th round as your RB2 or maybe even RB3 could have its advantages this season. It’s not outside of the realm of realistic outcomes where he is a top-24 RB and it’s possible he could sneak inside the top 20. Remember, he almost did that on a PPG basis as a rookie.

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