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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, another article in our weekly series of free NFL betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NFL betting breakdown article is for Sunday, September 25th, 2022.
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Today's Betting Overview - Bills @ Dolphins
The Bills take on the Dolphins on Sunday, September 25th at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NFL games throughout the 2022 season.
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills (2-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-0)
- Date: Sunday, September 25th, 2022
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Today's NFL Sportsbook Odds - Bills @ Dolphins
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Buffalo Bills - NFL Betting Analysis
Last week, the Bills knocked off the Titans by a score of 41-7, giving them an important win over an AFC opponent. Not only did Buffalo walk away with the win, but they also covered the spread as -10.0 point favorites. In terms of the over-under, the teams combined for 48 points, which surpassed the betting line of 47. On their way to picking up a 34 point win, Buffalo held this same lead heading into the 4th quarter.
With their 41 points, Buffalo had an above average game compared to last year's season average of 28.41 points per game. For the game, Buffalo ran the ball 24 times, finishing with 101 rushing yards. James Cook led the team with 53 rush yards and did not find the endzone.
Quarterback Josh Allen had an excellent game through the air, finishing with 317 total passing yards, leading to a passer rating of 128.95. Allen completed 4 passes for touchdowns. In addition to his team leading 148 receiving yards, Stefon Diggs hauled in 3 touchdowns. Buffalo throws the ball 35.5 times per game, ranking them 17th in the league. Going into the game, the Bills have thrown a total of 2.0 interceptions, coming on a passing completion percentage of 74.45% (2nd).
Currently, the Bills defense is ranked 2nd in overall yards allowed. So far, the team's defense has allowed 1 score through the air and 1 on the ground. Overall, opposing QB's have a passer rating of 46.83 vs the defense, which is 46.83 lowest in the NFL.
Miami Dolphins - NFL Betting Analysis
This week, the Dolphins will look to keep things rolling, after picking up a 42-38 over their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens. In terms of betting, Miami picked up an ATS win, as they were the 3.5 point underdogs. The teams combined for a total of 80 points, which surpassed the over-under betting line of 43. Miami went into the 4th quarter of the game trailing by 21 at 35-14, but still came back to win and cover the spread as underdogs.
With their 42 points, Miami had an above average game compared to last year's season average of 20.06 points per game. Through the game, Miami was efficient with their rushing attempts, posting 86 yards on 18 carries. Raheem Mostert led the team with 51 rush yards and did not find the endzone.
Tua Tagovailoa was able to rack up 469 passing yards on an overall passer rating of 124.08. Tagovailoa completed 6 passes for touchdowns. In the passing attack Tyreek Hill not only led the team with 190 yards, but caught 2 touchdowns. Miami is the 5th ranked team in passing attempts per game, with an average of 41.5. This season, 64.84% of the team's offensive plays have come through the pass, placing them 4th in the NFL.
Currently, the Dolphins' defense is ranked just 21st in overall yards allowed. So far, the team's defense has allowed 4 scores through the air and 1 on the ground. Opposing quarterbacks have put together an average passer rating of 113.03 vs the team's defense.
Today's NFL Betting Pick - Bills vs. Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills are looking to continue their recent dominance over Miami, as they have won 3 straight games vs the Dolphins. The two teams have combined to average 51.33 points per game in their last 3 meetings. Buffalo will look to continue on last year's success vs Miami as they won both of their matchups by scores of 26-11 and 35-0.
The Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in each of the last 3 contests. The Bills offense has averaged 39.0 points per game over the 3 most recent meetings with Miami, compared to the Dolphins at 12.33.
Over their last 3 regular season games, the Bills have gone 2-1 straight up. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
Across their last 3 road contests, Buffalo has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 33.33 points per game.
Through their last 3 games, the Dolphins have a record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 3-0 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
When looking at their past 3 home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 28.0 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: Bills -5.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 54.0
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