Mention that you are targeting Lamar Miller in your fantasy draft, and you will likely to get some slanted looks and horror stories from your friends. Thanks to a 4.4 40 time and most of his competition in the backfield coming from Daniel Thomas, many people drafted Miller as a popular sleeper pick back in 2013, only to see him finish the season with a putrid 709 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Fantasy owners were able to buy low on Miller last year and wound end up getting the ninth-ranked running back for the season. Miller finished the year with 1,099 yards rushing and eight touchdowns to go along with 275 yards receiving and a TD. In all, Miller averaged 5.1 yards per carry, good for 2nd best in the NFL amongst starters.
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The case for Miller this year is pretty straight forward. His offensive coordinator is Bill Lazor, who employs a system very similar to the Chip Kelly's running back-friendly offense. Ryan Tannehill's improvement from last season has gotten the Dolphins QB to the point where he can keep the defenses honest with him arm while also making them pay with his legs. Having a QB that can do damage in the running game is much more likely to help a running back than hurt him as it holds a defender from crashing down on the back. The Dolphins also boast a quality offensive line and acquired the biggest game changer in this year's free agent market (Ndamukong Suh), which could lead to Miami playing with a lead more often than last year. Add all that up with again not a ton of competition (Damian Williams and 2015 fifth round pick Jay Ajayi are Miller's biggest threats for carries), and you have a potential stud in the making.
The two biggest knocks on Miller are his work load and his goal line production. While the 5'10 running back is no means a small runner, he does not break many tackles or have a frame associated with many workhorse backs. But Miller added 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason to help him deal with the rough and tumble life of an NFL running back. Part of the reason Miller may have had extra motivation to add that muscle is that this is his contract year, so if Miller wants to hit pay dirt in free agency this offseason, it is all up to him and his performance. If the Dolphins are not interested in bringing back Miller for whatever reason, they could also look to run him into the ground like Dallas did to DeMarco Murray last season. Miller's new-found bulk can also be used for runs inside the 5-yard line. Miller supporters held their breath when Williams was asked to carry the rock in the Dolphins' first goal line situation of the preseason against the Bears, but that was way more likely to be due to Miller's day being done instead of Williams being tabbed the goal line back. Miller may not get every goal line call, but it doesn't look like there is a designated "short yardage" running back in South Beach.
Going into your draft, you can be scared off by former Millers owners acting like the boogeyman but it is fantasy owners looking at the past while also looking at the future that end up winning their leagues. To reiterate, Miller was the ninth-ranked fantasy running back last season, is entering a contract year, is in tremendous shape, is clearly the workhorse running back, and should be on an improved team with a functional quarterback. There aren't many running backs out there that can claim to be in such a good situation, let alone running backs that are being drafted where Miller is. Don't pass up on him because of previous owner's horror stories or you may have one about the time you passed up on a top-five back in the third or fourth round because of what other people said.
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