Does Robbie Ray Move The Needle For The Giants? Fantasy Baseball Outlook

The San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners have swung a major deal involving some impactful MLB veterans. Former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray is on his way to the Bay Area in exchange for outfielder Mitch Haniger and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani.

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One notable storyline from the swap is Haniger returning to the Mariners after he endured another injury-plagued season that saw him hit just .209 with six home runs in 61 games in his lone season with the Giants. In DeSclafani, Seattle nets a solid back-end rotation piece who owns a 4.20 ERA in parts of nine big-league seasons.

But what are the Giants getting in Ray? We know Tommy John surgery will cut into his 2024 season as he's unlikely to return before the All-Star break in mid-July. Can he bounce back from his injury and move the needle for the Giants in the season's second half? Let's dive in and find out!

Robbie Ray's Impact With the Giants

Coming off a Cy Young season that saw him toss a 2.84 ERA alongside a dynamite 25.4% K-BB% with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021, Ray signed a lucrative five-year deal with the Mariners in free agency ahead of the 2022 campaign. His results slipped in Seattle, but the southpaw still managed a solid 3.71 ERA and an attractive 19.4% K-BB% across 32 starts in 2022.

These results came on the heels of a ghastly 6.62 ERA in 12 outings (11 starts) in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, a campaign in which Ray issued walks to a whopping 17.9% of the batters he faced. He walked 45 of the 251 hitters he faced that season.

And that is where the main concern lies: free passes. Aside from velocity, control is the main concern coming back from Tommy John surgery. The issue is magnified for a pitcher in Ray who has dealt with his fair share of control issues throughout his career. He sports a 10% BB% across 226 big-league appearances (222 starts). For context, a 10% BB% would have ranked him 112th of 127 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in the 2023 season.

Now, to his credit, Ray reined in the free passes to a 7.4% clip between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, easily his best two-year stretch of control in his career. Considering his big-time strikeout stuff (28.9% career strikeout rate), Ray is one of the game's best when he knows where he's throwing it.

Fantasy managers would be wise to bet on Ray given his body of work after turning a corner over the last two seasons. He is a nice injury stash on draft day. However, if control issues rear its head upon his mid-season (or later) return, cutting bait sooner rather than later would be the prudent move.

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